Waymo self-driving cars -- progress

[Goofyhoofy]

@mostlylong

When and how does this data advantage materialize?
Apparently we are not yet seeing it this week. And all of the weeks that came before.
But, again, I’m open to persuasion.

I don’t think the data advantage is the big deal, although it’s something. The really big deal is if Tesla can pull off the robotaxi thing with standard, stock vehicles, of which there are already millions of the street. That’s “instant scale”, unlike every other provider which would have to build their network brick by brick.

I have my doubts, but weirdly one of the things that convinced me it might be possible is the Chinese using “not the best chips” and still producing a competitive AI. (I also have doubts that the current software/chips in a random Tesla would be up to the challenge, but since I don’t know the full capabilities I can’t really comment.)

There are obvious holes in the Tesla data set (picking up passenger in odd locations) which Waymo doesn’t have. OTOH, Tesla has millions more miles of possible “edge cases” which Waymo doesn’t. So which is easier to fill? Dunno, not my job, man.

@MarkR

I don’t think this is the case. Sometimes FSD can’t handle a situation, so it pauses slightly, and then figures out how to handle it. It is VERY rare that it throws up the red hands and makes the driver take over. In fact, in the last few versions of FSD, I’ve only experienced the red hands once (3+ months). For example, sometimes FSD can’t quite handle pulling out of my driveway, it seems to think there’s an obstruction (maybe the neighbor’s trash cans that aren’t really in the way). If I am in a hurry, I intervene and push the accelerator, and the car inches forwards and then drives. But a few times, when not in a hurry, I did nothing at all, and after a while, maybe 15 seconds, the car inched forward a bit, and then figured it out. Maybe it inches forward so it can get a slightly different “view” of the surroundings to help it more accurately determine distances to things it sees? I don’t know.

This might be fine for an early adopter, who is used to such glitches in early iterations of things, but in a general consumer market this sort of thing would inspire, let’s say, a lack of confidence and could be a serious detriment to rapid acceptance. Think about the many videos from “Tesla’s first day”, and multiply it by a million, including riders’ personal experience.

There’s a lot of work yet to be done.