What are you NOT buying just now?

I can think of quite a few things that have worked for a long time and are now in the process of not working.

  • Long-term US treasury bonds - for 40 years these have consistently went up over time - months ago it broke the trendline and is now heading straight for the bottom of the ocean.

  • Housing - up and up for a long long time. Would you want to be long housing right now?

  • US stocks? You’d be surprised how badly they are doing. Take a look:

This diagram includes the stoxx 600, nikkei 225, australian ASX 200.

Of the stockmarkets shown there, the Nasdaq and SP500 take last and second-last place. And the nasdaq is miles behind the rest.

The issue isn’t non-US stock performance itself - because they are winning hard this year - but rather, whether a dollar currency hedge might be a good idea if you invest in them.

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