Germany’s coalition government under Olaf Scholz has come to an early end – on the day Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. The chancellor sacked his finance minister after long internal disputes over the right way forward on economic recovery and the energy transition. The break-up now leaves the country with a host of unfinished policy proposals that risk grinding to a halt until a snap election is held and a new government is sworn in next year. This includes urgent matters such as Germany’s 2025 budget, without which many climate, energy, and industry support programmes could be left hanging in the balance for months, unless a minority government manages to forge new majorities in parliament.
The collapse of Scholz’s coalition government will result in snap elections in early 2025.
Fat pension jump: Why all government ministers want to hold on right now
On December 8th, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), his head of the Chancellery, Wolfgang Schmidt, and the 15 ministers will have been in office for exactly two years. On this very day they will have accumulated enough service time to have a pension of €4,660 per month safely in their pockets.
DB2
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Rising energy costs and the cost of new green energy are a challenge to good times in Germany. Voters need to decide how to address these realities. It won’ t be easy.
Snap election is a good first step. Let voters set priorities.
That was last November - now a year later what is their pension?
This is only one of the problems Germany is facing. And arguably it is one of the smaller, more easily solved, problems.
Please elaborate. What do you see as the main problem?
Economics has to be the central theme. Immigration is a concern and their reluctance to become Germans is a concern. But like most developed countries Germany has declining birth rate and has relied on replacements from other countries for eons. They say so many German men were killed in WWII, women had trouble finding husbands. That has to have put a dent in population growth for a while.
'Netherlands is full" is a common cry in Europe. But the people are needed. Compromises must be made. So there is a trend toward populism. You don’t hear white supremacy in Germany very often, but that concern seems to be there.
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Exactly. It’s economics. One of the big problems is lack of innovation, and that’s a problem across much of western Europe. The people have gotten used to a level of comfort and want to keep it (for example, French rioting to keep early retirement). And innovating usually requires taking risks and Europeans just aren’t built that way anymore, there’s a too high level of complacency. Another big problem is economic stagnation. You see this in Italy where smaller cities and towns can’t keep any young people there because the place is utterly stagnant and they have nothing even remotely exciting to do (work, play, etc). Government is stagnant with so many rules and regulations that hardly anything is ever allowed to change. And lack of change is “death”. Another big problem is that they’ve pretty much stopped reproducing, no kids means no future. They try to import new people, but it seems like many of the new people aren’t acclimating well, and would prefer to change their new country into something more like their old country. The USA through the 1900s was remarkably successful because it truly was a melting pot. Another problem is the EU, it purports to hold each member in equal standing, and indeed requires unanimity for most major decisions. But the members aren’t really equal, there is a constant demand to shift wealth from the more prosperous northern nations to the less prosperous southern nations. This leads to conflict. Finally, somewhere at the bottom is too heavy reliance on outsiders, specifically for energy, but also other things. When you rely on somewhat hostile outsiders for critical stuff (like energy), sometimes the flow of that stuff might slow or stop for various reasons.
- Put ideology above economics
- The economy tanks
- Ideology can’t put food on the table
Climate? Nothing wrong with climate.
Energy? Let the market decide.
The Captain
You say they are not innovative yet they are leaders in drug development. Novo Nordisk and wt loss drugs. Covid vaccines. Hoffman LaRoch usually considered largest and most profitable. Sanofi. GSK.
They have not done so well in Electronics recently. But theres ASML in chip equipment.
Still leaders in autos.
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Europe does mostly Decreasing Returns industry while America does Increasing Returns technology. That worked well for America until they found out that shipping Decreasing Returns industry to China was not such a hot idea after all.
There is much to like in Europe, specially real food.
The Captain
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So do you like what is going on in the world?
Oceans, lake, and rivers are getting hotter, glaciers are melting, polar ice is melting, some rivers are flooding and other rivers are going dry, permafrost is defrosting and releasing methane, tropical storms are increasing in strength, forests are burning, unbearable heat in summer months, ocean levels are increasing, flora and fauna are going extinct, and people are dying.
Right or wrong, the President Elect is known to be a global warming skeptic. Gets little or no support from the environmental lobby.
Most of the effort from the Biden administration is likely to be trimmed severely.
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That’s what climate does.
The Captain
Forced by the massive greenhouse gases being emitted from burning of fossil fuels warming our planet.
Jaak
No worse than Krakatoa or the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs. If I were you I’d worry about Yellowstone. It might wipe out half of USA. See if you can calm it. Just a bit.
The Captain
Massive volcanoes and asteroids are very rare and low probability. Climate change with warming of earth is happening now with 100% probability and caused mostly by humans.
I was wondering if there is any evidence or science that could be provided to you that might change your mind as to climate change? What form would it need to take to be persuasive?
JimA
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Surely not in reference to Germany. They have support of the Green party there and have been aggressive about adopting green energy projects. That’s what got them in trouble. They planned to use Russian NG to tide them over while shutting down coal plants (and nuclear) and installing green energy capacity. Loss of Russian NG left them in a difficult position.
No not in reference to Germany. In reference to China, USA, and India.
It might stop tomorrow…
100% certainty? No room for error?
Guilty as charged! I’ve been emitting CO2 and CH4 at both ends for 85 years!
The Captain
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