What Pivotal Really Does

I know Pivotal is currently out of favor here, but I suspect there are more than a few people who, like myself, still own shares. Anyway, here’s the latest in my series of what should be called “What Saul Stock Companies Really Do” (Sorry, Saul).

The good news here is that unlike, say a Nutanix, Pivotal is actually really good about explaining what it’s products are and do. Here’s a short (15 minute) video of Pivotal’s VP of Cloud R&D Onsi Fakhouri running through both the problem, the ideal state, and how Pivotal helps companies get there: https://youtu.be/xdw_9dADM-4

TL;DW (Too Long: Didn’t Watch) version:
Pivotal has 4 main products:
Spring: Helps developers write code
Cloud Foundary: Helps enterprises deploy that code
Tracker: Tracks and Analyzes the running code
Labs: Consulting practice (OK, so not an actual product) to teach companies how to restructure how they build apps

If your team knows how to operate in an agile, iterative fashion, and writes code that instead of being monolithic (one big chunk) is a collection of smaller apps using/exposing micro-services, then Pivotal’s products seem like a good way to get good results on a standardized platform. If your team isn’t this top-notch, then you can bring in the folks from Pivotal Labs to coach and train your team.

That’s basically what Pivotal does. Now, what does that mean? I recommend watching the 15 minute video. If you don’t want to watch all 15 minutes, at least do these two things:

  1. Watch from 0:15 to 3:20 - Explains why software development is different than hardware

  2. Jump to “The Circle of Code” at 10:14
    This summary shows how the 3 products work together, and then he goes into how Pivotal Labs consulting can change the culture of your company’s developers to be more productive.

(If you want more detail:
The section from 3:20 to 7:20 explains why many companies have trouble deploying “aaS” (as a Service) applications.

The section from 7:20 to 8:01, explains how Pivotal’s structure forces development into micro-services (those of you who managed to slog through the “Nutanix is an AI and Machine Learning Company” thread might remember a discussion about micro-services here: https://discussion.fool.com/nutanix-is-an-ai-and-machine-learnin… )

Having been involved with software development for decades, I can vouch for the validity of what Fakhouri is saying both about the problems and Pivotal’s solutions. I think the real problem with Pivotal for us as investors, however, is the need for the consulting arm, Pivotal Labs. If the only way to take advantage of this better world using Pivotal Spring, Cloud Foundary, and Tracker is to change the culture of your company, then that’s a big sales hurdle to overcome. Not many companies really want to undergo that kind of sea change. There may be some companies doing so poorly that they’ll try something like this, and there may be some companies already leaning towards this kind of development that would see Pivotal’s products as fitting into their existing style, but I have a hard time seeing big, bureaucratic companies making this large a change unless new leadership was brought in, and I have a hard time seeing companies who have a small development group also making this kind of change since they’re probably resource constrained to begin with.

In any case, making this kind of change, while good eventually, will result in short term pain and I expect many companies will have a hard time making that decision. AND, even if they do want to make that change, do they really want to lock themselves into Pivotal’s ecosystem, nice as it is, forever?

This looks to me like a company that has a strong vision. There is a definite need for Pivotal’s way of creating and deploying aaS applications. Unfortunately, at first glance, what I see is a long and difficult sales cycle. The company name, Pivotal, is appropriate as it indicates what their customers need to do: pivot. Pivoting is hard at many corporations.

More specifically, there’s not an easy way to dip your toe in before diving with Pivotal. With Nutanix, for instance, you can buy some cheapish hardware and install their software to get a server or three up and running and then deploy a small or new or ancillary application on it. With ZScaler you can change 1 or 2 internal applications to use ZScaler for authentication and see how it goes. In both cases, you’re not committing everything at once. You fire up a POC (Proof of Concept) trial balloon.

With Pivotal, however, you have to change how an entire application development group and an entire application deployment group operate. That’s not just the tools they use, but how they go about architecting an application, and then deploying it. And if you really want the benefits, you’re bringing in Pivotal’s consultants to help your team learn new ways of operating. The result will probably be great, but it’s a big initial nut to crack. Pivotal may need something like some really big reference customers and make Pivotal Labs a money losing aspect in order to gain more traction and adoption.

Anyone else think differently?

26 Likes

AT&T.

There is not a piece of code in the entire company that can be called “good” most is “barely adequate”

Year over year the top line has been negative in every individual operating company. (mobility went positive this quarter) Debt has risen and the yield is so high on the dividend that it now looks like it is swirling the drain.

The bad code stretches from Point of Sale and the public web interface to deep internal reporting programs.

The situation is becoming untenable.

Cheers
Qazulight

Pivotal has a fabulous solution for the industry. But Pivotal also does have bellwether customers. GE as an example created a multi billion dollar public company using Pivotal as its core. Last I heard it was worth $6 billion by GE is trying to shop it because it has not commercially lived up to its promise (largely because GE was being GE and cannot be anything but a slightly better GE).

Boeing changed their entire company culture, Ford is building consulting practices next door to each Pivotal consulting practice to stay close, Google/Microsoft are core investors…etc, etc.

There is not a better pedigreed company in the existence of man kind with more bellwether customers. The problem is, and it may be exactly as you explain, is that Pivotal has less than 400 customers world wide. Nutanix has 10,000 and growing, VMWare 500,000

In computers you had the mainframe that could cost millions and only a few had the world wide. Then you had computers spread to millions and billions.

Which market aspect was more profitable? The answer is easy. Pivotal is stuck with being a mainframe for only the few, for whatever reason. I had hoped they could bring in 30 new customers a quarter. Hardly a stretch in the scheme of things. That have Dell they have VMWare, they have EMC all evangelizing for them…

Yet they are as they are. If they suddenly start to grow customers at an unexpected quarterly rate look for the stock to soar. But that is pure chance at this point. Investing in chance is generally a losers game for the most part.

Tinker

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Yet they are as they are. If they suddenly start to grow customers at an unexpected quarterly rate look for the stock to soar. But that is pure chance at this point. Investing in chance is generally a losers game for the most part.

I think that is the heart of the matter. The street is of course focusing in on the short term quarterly numbers. Because Pivotal sells very large deals to a smaller customer base, lead times will naturally be longer, and also lumpier from quarter to quarter. I believe new customer cohorts should be viewed as year over year basis to smooth out the lumpy nature.

Even new customers who signed on near last quarters end, most likely have not been billed >$50k yet. I’m pretty sure we will see more than 15 customers added when earnings come out in early December. This should continue into Q1 of 2019, as the company should land more federal accounts. (I think they normally spend $ in Q4 calendar year if memory serves)

Pivotal is also beginning to focus on more mid size offerings as well, so time will tell how that plays out.

Best,
Matt

3 Likes

In computers you had the mainframe that could cost millions, that only a few had the world wide. Then you had [desktop] computers spread to millions and billions. Which market aspect was more profitable? The answer is easy. Pivotal is stuck with being a mainframe for only the few, for whatever reason.

Wow, Tinker, what a clear and insightful analogy. Thanks!

Saul

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Pivotal is stuck with being a mainframe for only the few, for whatever reason.

Is this necessarily true or is it just that, at this stage of development, very large companies make easier and better marketing targets because of the number of large projects and budgets big enough to take risks on new technology? Plus, since they started out doing consulting, these are also the companies which were good consulting targets. As they package the offering more and develop more consulting partners, it would seem likely to expand the target market to smaller companies.

2 Likes

“there may be some companies doing so poorly that they’ll try something like this, and there may be some companies already leaning towards this kind of development that would see Pivotal’s products as fitting into their existing style, but I have a hard time seeing big, bureaucratic companies making this large a change unless new leadership was brought in”

I thought that one of the problems with PVTL is that apparently they only have succeeded in acquiring large customers. That is why they only added about 30 new customers last quarter as opposed to some of our companies that acquire hundreds if not thousands of new customers. That and the fact that they don’t even count customers with less than $50,000 in billings?

Rob