Aah…the reasons for your confusion are getting a bit clearer.
To your first point, if you scroll back to the early mentions of NEAT, you (and anyone else who cares to check) will see that no one was claiming that exercise alone would automatically lead to weight loss. A bit of a Straw Man argument, really, as my reference to NEAT was in the context of compensatory change in energy expenditure from this source…both with more volitional exercise or reduced energy intake. Referencing the dynamic nature of the CI:CO equation…and, by implication, the reasonable confusion of folk who’re looking to lose weight by either dieting or exercise to create an energy deficit and seeing anomalous (usually disappointing) results.