I agree on anything involved in alternate energy, or transporting imported goods.
There are a couple special cases relating to health care. Medicare could decline to negotiate drug prices, or not negotiate aggressively, and CMS could decline to prosecute it’s case against Humana. Those things can be done administratively, on the QT, with the stroke of a pen. I have related positions in my cash account, in case I’m wrong, so I can take the tax deduction. :^)
Steve
Why did I not ask AI before this? :D. To perplexity.ai:
“Historically, what makes the best investments in a period of rising inflation and/or recession?”
Historically, during periods of rising inflation and/or recession, certain types of investments have tended to perform better than others. Here are some of the best investment strategies and sectors to consider:
Investment Strategies
1. Diversification: Spread investments across various asset classes to mitigate risk. This includes a mix of stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities.
2. Value Investing: Focus on high-quality companies with strong balance sheets, low debt, and good cash flow.
3. Dollar-Cost Averaging: Invest equal amounts at regular intervals to reduce the impact of market volatility.
Asset Classes
1. Bonds: Particularly long-term bonds tend to perform well during recessions as investors seek lower-risk assets. However, they may not fare as well in inflationary environments if interest rates rise.
2. Gold: Often considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, gold has historically provided positive returns during recessions.
3. Dividend Stocks: Companies with a strong track record of paying dividends can provide stable income during economic downturns.
Sectors
1. Consumer Staples: Companies that produce essential goods tend to be more resilient during recessions as demand for their products remains stable.
2. Healthcare: This sector is considered recession-resistant because medical needs are non-discretionary.
3. Utilities: Providing essential services like water and electricity, utility companies often maintain steady demand regardless of economic conditions.
4. Information Technology: While traditionally seen as cyclical, certain tech companies have shown resilience due to increased reliance on technology during downturns.
By focusing on these strategies and sectors, investors can potentially protect their portfolios from the adverse effects of inflation and recession while positioning themselves for future growth when the economy recovers.
Short term. Play the long game. If everything else is the same, a 15% “sale” is a good time to buy.
It is not a stock market but a market of stocks. Same for REITs.
Look at Rail. Does that look like the railroads are cutting back on Capex or ramping up? I think you all need to realize we are in a bull market and a recession is no where in sight. Don’t let your politics cloud your mind.
It’s not politics clouding my mind. It’s what has been stated they will do as policy. “Expect two years of pain” for starters. Another trade war, the effects of which Auto Zone is already feeling and preparing for. Etc.
Hey BJ it’s hard to see the future and they have to get everything through congress. I think we will have plenty of time to see it before it actually hits. I just plan on watching the market and right now it is telling me it’s all blue skies.
True, if you buy after it goes on sale. If you’re expecting inflation to go up then waiting to buy the REITs would be better.
DB2
Not everything needs to go through Congress. Repealing parts of the ACA, for instance, would probably require an act of Congress, because the ACA was an act of Congress. Repealing the EV and chip plant subsidies would also require an act of Congress, to repeal the earlier act of Congress.
Things that can be done administratively, can be executed a lot faster, and on the QT, with a stroke of a pen, behind closed doors. Medicare declining to negotiate drug prices aggressively, or prosecuting the customer service issue with Humana, are two that come to mind.
Looking at how the washing machine tariff came about on the last go around, makes it clear that protectionist tariffs do not need an act of Congress. All that is needed is a determination by the US International Trade Commission, that foreign competition hurts domestic producer’s profits. Then the tariffs apparently happen with the stroke of a pen.
I sold out of IIPR a couple of days ago. It was a nice run. I bought into it when the dividend was over 10 percent.
This is so cute. The first sentence is perfection. The second is a dream. They only care about paying for them when the other party is in power.
This is a great thread. I’ve read every post, lots of insight from different directions. And basically no politics, except all of the calm, rational thoughts on what the upcoming shift in politics could lead to. Well done, people !
We should do this again in February or March.
I think long-term rates are going up and not coming down. IF rates are not coming down, even if it stays where it is, REIT’s are not attractive trade.
I feel you. My entire portfolio went up by 5%+ and I felt no joy, absolutely none. But, life moves on. Don’t assume much, wait and see how the policy shapes up.
Don’t make lot of changes to the portfolio, unless you have explicit reasons or you would have done that even under Harris presidency.
I am kicking myself because my portfolio only went up a little over 9 percent today. If I would have just put it all into Sezl, when I had that gut feeling, I could have been up 100 percent.
Perhaps you should share your gut feeling more often… 
I did but they are not always right. 
Watch the trends, by asset class. The trend is your friend. They’ll change over time, of course, and DFT may very well mess it up and send the economy into the tank - but that will show up in the trends and it’ll be time to go to cash. (edited from a week ago to pass TMFs filter on one word that rhymes with crew). 
They will dump EV mandates. 
Tesla is up only 32% since Monday. 
The Captain
Yes, a terrific thread, and thanks to all.
The “Trend is your Friend” applies across social trends as well as market trends, and comprehending social trends, what they are and what they mean is extremely useful, but less chatty and perhaps more difficult. The onslaught of social shifts brought on by the end of cold war polarization followed by the explosion in information tech and subsequent putrification of news and accurate reporting is driving a lot of what we are seeing in our economy and so in this thead.
Here is a superb article by a cool mind (Roger Cohen) on current trends in political economy that provides a foundation under much of what this thread has been summarizing:
d fb
Established is not synonymous with good.
Fascist were socialists, just a different breed than the Communist socialists. Why are Fascist called right wing? Because they are to the right of the Communist socialists. BTW Capitalism is a misnomer, all economies are capitalist, the only difference being who controls the capital, private citizens or the established order.
The Captain