O.k., ESTC and ZS are in the rear view mirror. I am thoroughly upset with myself for sleeping through the ESTC earnings. Not upset that I didn't sell (some), but worse in that I fumbled the process and didn't consider it. So, I took a look at OKTA which is my second largest position. Looked at it through the lens of sale execution, primarily. Not even close to a deep dive, but here it is: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Subscription Rev 34138 76443 144909 236442 370865 563000 (est) Subscription COR 8918 20684 34211 52481 77354 Sales & Marketing 49006 77915 110769 165020 227960 Sub Rev Y-o-Y 123% 89.5% 63.2% 56.9% 51.8% Sub COR Y-o-Y 131% 65.4% 53.4% 47.4% S & M Y-o-Y 59% 42.3% 49.0% 38.1% Gross Margin 73.9% 72.9% 76.4% 77.8% 79.1% Based on typical beats on revenue, we could forecast 2020 revenue at 572000 which would be 54.2%. I do not see sales execution problems. Gross margins increasing. Revenue growth deceleration but not to a great degree. I see increases in sales and marketing being rewarded with much larger increases in revenue. I am nervous, of course, but I announce before the fact that I do not intend to sell any shares earnings. Let's see what other ambush is awaiting, or if my revenue confidence is misplaced. What say you? KC
Reports this evening. Have owned since 2/18…good gain. Just asked broker what to do…he responded “hold” in spite of another down day. STJ
I see very little reason to sell OKTA. Growth may slow a little, certainly possible. And the valuation /might/ be a little rich for some, and I certainly have a LOT of wiggle room since it’s +325% since I first bought (145% overall, including a new recent pile bought at $105ish). Okta mostly has the market by the tail for the things they do best, and I’m content to let them keep doing their thing… until/unless the story changes.