Whiter OKTA?

O.k., ESTC and ZS are in the rear view mirror.  I am thoroughly upset with myself for sleeping through
the ESTC earnings.  Not upset that I didn't sell (some), but worse in that I fumbled the process and
didn't consider it.

So, I took a look at OKTA which is my second largest position.  Looked at it through the lens of sale
execution, primarily.  Not even close to a deep dive, but here it is:

                    2015   2016   2017    2018    2019    2020

Subscription Rev   34138  76443  144909  236442  370865  563000 (est)
Subscription COR    8918  20684   34211   52481   77354
Sales & Marketing  49006  77915  110769  165020  227960

Sub Rev Y-o-Y              123%   89.5%   63.2%   56.9%   51.8%
Sub COR Y-o-Y              131%   65.4%   53.4%   47.4%
S & M Y-o-Y                 59%   42.3%   49.0%   38.1% 
Gross Margin       73.9%   72.9%  76.4%   77.8%   79.1%

Based on typical beats on revenue, we could forecast 2020 revenue at 572000 which would be 54.2%.

I do not see sales execution problems.  Gross margins increasing.  Revenue growth deceleration but not
to a great degree.  I see increases in sales and marketing being rewarded with much larger increases in

I am nervous, of course, but I announce before the fact that I do not intend to sell any shares
earnings.  Let's see what other ambush is awaiting, or if my revenue confidence is misplaced.  

What say you?  


Reports this evening. Have owned since 2/18…good gain. Just asked broker what to do…he responded “hold” in spite of another down day. STJ

I see very little reason to sell OKTA. Growth may slow a little, certainly possible. And the valuation /might/ be a little rich for some, and I certainly have a LOT of wiggle room since it’s +325% since I first bought (145% overall, including a new recent pile bought at $105ish). Okta mostly has the market by the tail for the things they do best, and I’m content to let them keep doing their thing… until/unless the story changes.