Whoa, slow there on that net zero

The Little Ice Age was not a global phenomena and the human population did not suffer very much.

Geologists and paleontologists have found that, in the last 100 million years, global temperatures have peaked twice. One spike was the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse roughly 92 million years ago, about 25 million years before Earth’s last dinosaurs went extinct. Widespread volcanic activity may have boosted atmospheric carbon dioxide. Temperatures were so high that champsosaurs (crocodile-like reptiles) lived as far north as the Canadian Arctic, and warm-temperature forests thrived near the South Pole.

Another hothouse period was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) about 55-56 million years ago. Though not quite as hot as the Cretaceous hothouse, the PETM brought rapidly rising temperatures. During much of the Paleocene and early Eocene, the poles were free of ice caps, and palm trees and crocodiles lived above the Arctic Circle.

During the PETM, the global mean temperature appears to have risen by as much as 5-8°C (9-14°F) to an average temperature as high as 73°F. (Again, today’s global average is shy of 60°F.) At roughly the same time, paleoclimate data like fossilized phytoplankton and ocean sediments record a massive release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, at least doubling or possibly even quadrupling the background concentrations.

It is still uncertain where all the carbon dioxide came from and what the exact sequence of events was. Scientists have considered the drying up of large inland seas, volcanic activity, thawing permafrost, release of methane from warming ocean sediments, huge wildfires, and even—briefly—a comet.

Modern human civilization, with its permanent agriculture and settlements, has developed over just the past 10,000 years or so. The period has generally been one of low temperatures and relative global (if not regional) climate stability. Compared to most of Earth’s history, today is unusually cold; we now live in what geologists call an interglacial—a period between glaciations of an ice age. But as greenhouse-gas emissions warm Earth’s climate, it’s possible our planet has seen its last glaciation for a long time.

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Bottom line is that humans flourished during the cold periods of the last 100,000 years. Now with human burning of fossil fuels the CO2 levels are rising and along with global temperatures. Humans are not adapted to the extreme heat that is killing many people. It is easier to live in cold weather climate with more clothes - than living in hot weather climates with no clothes.

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Ford says it needs the coercion from the UK government.

“The UK 2030 target is a vital catalyst to accelerate Ford into a cleaner future,” Ford UK chair Lisa Brankin said in a statement on Wednesday…

"We need the policy focus trained on bolstering the EV market in the short term and supporting consumers while headwinds are strong: infrastructure remains immature, tariffs loom and cost-of-living is high," Brankin added.

DB2

Adjusting your clothing for the climate is easy. Having a climate that is conducive to food production is essential.

China’s special climate envoy says fossil fuels are still needed.

From the link:
Xie, however, said the intermittent nature of renewable energy and the immaturity of key technologies like energy storage means the world must continue to rely on fossil fuels to safeguard economic growth.
(Translation: “We are going to keep burning as much coal, oil and natural gas as we need, in order to maintain our economic growth.”)

“It is unrealistic to completely phase out fossil fuel energy,” said Xie, who will represent China at COP28 this year.

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This part is interesting…
He also said he welcomed pledges made to him by his U.S. counterpart John Kerry that a $100 billion annual fund to help developing countries adapt to climate change would soon be made available, adding it was “only a drop in the bucket”.

I wonder if he includes China in those “developing countries” that need the $100 billion from the developed world?

COP28 starts at the end of November in Dubai. No doubt there will be plenty of speeches, pledges, and smiling group photos taken. But anything substantive? I am skeptical.

  • Pete
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Designing roots to penetrate hard soils could help climate proof crops
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/07/220718154346.htm
Hard soils cause crop roots to grow shorter and swell. Root swelling was originally thought to help penetrate hard soils. However, X-ray imaging of plants growing in soil at Nottingham revealed that roots which remained narrow penetrate hard soils more easily. The team went on to identify a hormone signal that promoted this root swelling response which, when its levels were reduced, helped roots remain narrow and penetrate hard soil more effectively.

Dr. Bipin Pandey, BBSRC Discovery Fellow and the lead researcher from the University of Nottingham says “Our research overturns decades of scientific thinking, revealing that root swelling does not help penetrate hard soils. These results can potentially safeguard or boost agricultural yields worldwide, particularly considering that climate change can exacerbate the strength of soil by less rainfall. This new understanding of how roots grow in hard soils promises to help develop novel soil-compaction-resistant crops.”

DB2

oddly enough both extremes we wear more cloths. The heat demands keeping sunlight off our skin with heavier layers of cloth as shade.

What is bad it will mean a huge drop in productivity as water resources shift and work schedules decline. It is a high risk to our economy.

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This summer, a special election (by-election) was held in Uxbridge, a London suburb north of Heathrow.

Sir Keir told the BBC the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) had cost Labour victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. He called on Mr Khan to “reflect” on his plan to expand it to outer London…

DB2

Sir Keir Starmer said Uxbridge and South Ruislip was always “going to be tough - we didn’t take it in 1997 when we had a landslide victory”.

So Labour lost a Tory pocket borough, again. And the “news” is?

Steve

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As the article notes, “Labour overturned a much bigger Conservative majority than the one the party had in Uxbridge in another by-election held on the same day in North Yorkshire.” This means that the Uxbridge elections, which focused on vehicle restrictions, went against the grain.

Which is part of the backstory to the ‘slowing on net zero’ story this month.

DB2

Bah! The Tory’s held Uxbridge due to a sympathy vote for poor Boris, previous holder of that seat, for being so persecuted for ignoring covid restrictions. Previous holder of the Selby seat resigned, like a spoiled brat, because he didn’t get a seat in Lords. The Liberals won a seat because the former Tory resigned due to scandal.

Steve

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Yeah, Sunak’s announcement last week just came out of the blue…

DB2

If it was Shiny-land, it would have come out of the green. What color are UK Pound notes?

Steve

Whatever color, the change is proving popular with the people.

Labour are down three points, with Mr Sunak’s party rising five points.

DB2

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Elsewhere in Europe…

The EU is considering a ban on the sale of stand-alone fossil-fuel-powered boilers from 2029…While a ban on gas boilers is seen as one that could significantly contribute to meeting climate change targets, it is also politically risky as it could have the effect of tipping moderate voters towards the right.

Germany was forced to row back on their support for the plan in the wake of massive government infighting and public outcries…Meanwhile, economist Jean Pisani-Ferr explained: “In Germany, we wanted to proceed with a ban without providing budgetary resources. So people revolted. We cannot put people before an equation without a solution.”

French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday ruled out a ban on gas boilers.

And on Friday, protestors in Sweden took to the streets after the Government officially abandoned its climate targets for 2030 and decided new tax cuts for fossil fuels.

DB2

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The climate and environment minister, Romina Pourmokthari, defended the budget, saying it was a “combination of sweet and salt” and the government’s third biggest climate and environment budget ever. However, she added: “You are never totally satisfied.”

Other features of the budget were tax cuts for pensioners, more money for the justice system, including plans to expand prisons, lowering tax on snus tobacco, raising taxes on cigarettes and abolishing a plastic bag tax.

DB2

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The time scale is off by about six orders of magnitude.

Where the models differ is on the speed with which the earth reaches this point of no return. Some suggest that the Earth will become inhospitable before the 1 billion year mark, since the interactions between the heating planet and the rocks, oceans, and plate tectonics will dry out the planet even faster. Others suggest that life may be able to hold on a little longer than 1 billion years, due to the different requirements of different life forms and periodic releases of critical chemicals by plate tectonics.

DB2

Germany will indefinitely halt plans on more stringent building insulation standards, environment minister Robert Habeck said on Sept. 24, after industry complaints the measures are too costly and hurt the depressed construction sector…

Arguing over the law had brought the ruling coalition close to collapse until it agreed to water down the original bill.

DB2

My timescale isn’t off by any orders of magnitude. We won’t need to wait a billion years as we will have created an environment in which we can’t survive. Biological processes will not be viable.

JimA

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That’s at odds with the history of the earth. You may remember this graph from upthread:


It has often been much warmer than today. For example, look at the Cretaceous hothouse period, some 100 million years ago. The North Pole had a climate similar to Seattle and life flourished there. Flowering plants and grasses arose and spread around the globe. You know about the dinosaurs; they were at their most diverse stage then.

How about the Carboniferous period when plant life was so abundant that vast deposits that later became fossil fuels were laid down. While not as warm as the Cretaceous peak, it was much warmer (some 15°F) than today.

DB2

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The history of the planet has had nothing like what we are moving towards. We have corrupted the global environment and I suspect it is irreversible. I would like to think we will resolve the issue and some technological miracle will happen. But I remain a pessimist, almost solely on this single topic!

JimA

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