Why Alteryx is worth another another look

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1 
In my most recent review of holdings, I mentioned now may be time to look at AYX again. Thanks Rex for
your response. It prompted me to look a bit deeper into the numbers and I feel more convinced. Even
though the story may feel like I am talking about a value play, and in a way it is, but it's also about
returning to growth as well. 

Here are the revenue growth numbers:
 **AYX Revenue Growth YoY** 
        Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4
2019	51%	59%	65%	75%
2020	43%	17%	26%	-1%*

The revenue numbers due to ASC606 accounting are lumpy as many have already mentioned. For AYX, its 
better to look at ARR. The company has started sharing the ARR (Annual recurring revenue) numbers and
here is how they look:

 **AYX ARR Growth YoY** 
        Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4
2019		54%		80%
2020	43%	41%	38%	33%*

So the ARR is impacted due to COVID but it's growing consistently. That's why I said it's not a turn
around story as revenue numbers may indicate. Its Growth albeit at a lower rate due to COVID and not a turn around story. But it's still growing at 30%+.

If COVID dissipates early 2nd Qtr, we might see growth go back to 50%+ later this year. The data has not
stopped growing due to COVID. AYX sees its TAM to be approximately 49B. I know TAM numbers are not holy
grail but it's another data point.

Let me also share why I feel AYX may have suffered more than some of the other companies. Actually I am
comparing numbers from COUP, but you can also compare other SaaS companies like AVLR, APPN and you will
see similar discrepancy. Anyways, following are the number from COUP:

 **Revenue growth YoY:**  
        Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4
2019		53%	52%	48%
2020	47%	33%	30%	31%*.  -- So down from 50% to 30% range (Compare this to ARR for AYX)

Also just comparing the raw revenue numbers for both

 **AYX Revenue:**  
        Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4      Total
2019	76	82	103	156	417
2020	108.8	96	130	155	490*

 **COUP Revenue**  
        Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4      Total
2019	81	95	102	111	389
2020	119	126	133	145	523*

So both have about 500 MM yearly run rate. AYX is selling at 15 EV/S vs COUP is selling at 47 EV/S

Here is Gross Margin for the two:

 **AYX GM:**  
        Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4     
2019	89%	89%	91%	92%
2020	88%	90%	92%	-->>  **AYX GM compares very favorably to many other companies**  

 **COUP GM:**  
        Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4     
2019	67%	64%	63%	64%
2020	64%	61%	62%	

There are other differences like AYX had positive net income in 3 of the last 7 quarters and was free
cash flow positive in 6 of the last 7 quarters. Coup on the other hand never had any of those.

I think market is looking at the top line number for AYX and has unduly punished it. I feel AYX is a
better investment at this point and should provide good return in future. It may take couple of quarters
for the stock to reflect that. Also, I may be completely wrong and we may never see Alteryx recover.

Best -
Ruhaan
Long AYX

PS: * are expected numbers
77 Likes
2

This might help readability…
https://support.fool.com/hc/en-us/articles/360000244288-How-…
https://onesupport.fool.com/hc/en-us/articles/201142724-How-…

🆁🅶🅱
post tenebras lux
For not in my bow do I trust, nor can my sword save me.

3 Likes