In my most recent review of holdings, I mentioned now may be time to look at AYX again. Thanks Rex for your response. It prompted me to look a bit deeper into the numbers and I feel more convinced. Even though the story may feel like I am talking about a value play, and in a way it is, but it's also about returning to growth as well. Here are the revenue growth numbers: **AYX Revenue Growth YoY** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 51% 59% 65% 75% 2020 43% 17% 26% -1%* The revenue numbers due to ASC606 accounting are lumpy as many have already mentioned. For AYX, its better to look at ARR. The company has started sharing the ARR (Annual recurring revenue) numbers and here is how they look: **AYX ARR Growth YoY** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 54% 80% 2020 43% 41% 38% 33%* So the ARR is impacted due to COVID but it's growing consistently. That's why I said it's not a turn around story as revenue numbers may indicate. Its Growth albeit at a lower rate due to COVID and not a turn around story. But it's still growing at 30%+. If COVID dissipates early 2nd Qtr, we might see growth go back to 50%+ later this year. The data has not stopped growing due to COVID. AYX sees its TAM to be approximately 49B. I know TAM numbers are not holy grail but it's another data point. Let me also share why I feel AYX may have suffered more than some of the other companies. Actually I am comparing numbers from COUP, but you can also compare other SaaS companies like AVLR, APPN and you will see similar discrepancy. Anyways, following are the number from COUP: **Revenue growth YoY:** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 53% 52% 48% 2020 47% 33% 30% 31%*. -- So down from 50% to 30% range (Compare this to ARR for AYX) Also just comparing the raw revenue numbers for both **AYX Revenue:** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total 2019 76 82 103 156 417 2020 108.8 96 130 155 490* **COUP Revenue** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total 2019 81 95 102 111 389 2020 119 126 133 145 523* So both have about 500 MM yearly run rate. AYX is selling at 15 EV/S vs COUP is selling at 47 EV/S Here is Gross Margin for the two: **AYX GM:** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 89% 89% 91% 92% 2020 88% 90% 92% -->> **AYX GM compares very favorably to many other companies** **COUP GM:** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 67% 64% 63% 64% 2020 64% 61% 62% There are other differences like AYX had positive net income in 3 of the last 7 quarters and was free cash flow positive in 6 of the last 7 quarters. Coup on the other hand never had any of those. I think market is looking at the top line number for AYX and has unduly punished it. I feel AYX is a better investment at this point and should provide good return in future. It may take couple of quarters for the stock to reflect that. Also, I may be completely wrong and we may never see Alteryx recover. Best - Ruhaan Long AYX PS: * are expected numbers
post tenebras lux
For not in my bow do I trust, nor can my sword save me.