Saul, your answer seems to confirm a suspicion I had: That your valuation process is “intuition-based”. I do not not mean that in a negative way. And I do not mean it’s not rational.
But it’s rational on a deeper, not really accessible level. “Intuition” for me simply means thinking is going on - but at a lower level, subconsciously. That your subconscious mind is using all those inputs you get, the ones you mentioned and everything else, processes them and signals in your conscious mind the result, the “buy/sell this/that”.
Without doubt your brain is superior in how it processes those signals, as shown by your results, but should I be correct this very special skill of yours unfortunately can’t be teached. It’s like a neural network, a black box where all you see is the (correct) output, caused by a certain input, without seeing how that input is processed. It works - but nobody knows why it works, what exactly is going on inside the black box.
It’s something every programmer knows, trying for numerous hours to find a bug, finally falling totally exhausted to sleep - and waking up with “Heureka, that’s it!”, knowing the solution because while sleeping the subconscious mind did solve the problem.
And that means, as you said, no formula
.
.
As I just realize what I wrote above actually is a pre-conceived opinion, a judgment, more a statement than a question: May I instead simply ask: Do you think I could be correct regarding “inputs subconsciously processed”? Or do you think all of those information you mentioned are really fully consciously processed by you to come up with a result? Please believe me, this is not a trick question. I really am curious how your brain works. Your longterm results speak for themselves and I really would like to know if all that apparently superior processing of information available to everybody really is all going on consciously (I am having big problems in believing that - therefore my above “subconscious processing” hypothesis).
Sorry for such a post/question which is completely OT regarding the focus of this board. But you started to explain your thinking - and it fascinates me.