Stock…
Quick version:
Higher risk/reward ratio than other opportunities out there.
Longer version:
I bought a couple years ago no, when the price was $40-$60. I struggled with the notion of selling all the way from $200 up to $290 and back down to $200(ish). I sold early this month at about $220. I’m quite happy with that choice.
What did I put that money into? Various high growth low PE stocks discussed here. Why? Because I view the likelihood of these other stocks rising 50-200% over the next 2 years as far more likely than TSLA stock rising similarly in that time period.
I don’t think the company is in trouble. I think it will succeed, as measured in number of cars sold. I don’t think the stock will crater, but I do think it will drift for awhile. (If I’m wrong, great for current and future holders.) I see Musk as visionary, but not with the (extreme) regard that some have.
“But wait, you say - do I own one, or have I taken a test drive?” Why yes, I have, and it was very cool. Easily the best automobile I’ve ever been in. But $90k is way out of my auto price range. With sadness I realize even their $40k(ish) affordable Model X (?) in a couple years is out of my range. I pay ~$1000 for gas yearly for my current old and used VW jetta. I’d have to have a car for about 30 years just to even out approximately the cost.
“But it’s so cool!” True - but it’s a car. Not a home. Maybe I’m in the minority, and I’m surely not in the target audience, but it will be a long time before I purchase a vehicle that is 30k or more. (I would say 20k or more, since that’s more than I’ve ever spent on a vehicle, but who knows one day.)
-FrickNCheap
11 Likes
probably a good move since Musk himself said the stock was over priced.
sw
1 Like
I’m thinking seriously about getting an Elio when they come out. My current car is a 2001 Toyota Camry with 170,000 miles on it. If the Elio comes out in 2016 and let’s say I can get one in early 2017, my car, if still going, may have close to 200,000 on it.
If I could get an Elio for $6800 and it got 84 mpg, that should help me to save some money.
So, maybe in 2020 or so, I could buy a Tesla. The 35k model, not one for $85k.
Fool on,
mazske
MKL Ticker Guide
Check my profile to see all I hold which does include Tesla.
Buying a Tesla is not a good decision based on economics. Neither is buying any other car beyond a lightly used Corolla or possible Camry level. Because they will get you from here to there and somebody else has paid the brunt of the depreciation. Fortunately for almost every company in the world most humans are not rational buyers.
But I enjoy my car more than my home which is mostly something to keep the rain off my head. And being an old geezer I have few other responsibilities, So I splurged, and am enjoying every drive.
I agree that TSLA is likely to drift. Unless it goes down, While bad things might happen any day, it will take until 2018 to see whether the Generation 3 is a hit or a dud. If Tesla can keep the price down, and if it drives anything like the S it will be a huge hit. By then the charging network should mostly be built.
We stand a very good chance of seeing a recession before 2018. All of our favorite stocks will be a lot cheaper then.
1 Like
probably a good move since Musk himself said the stock was over priced.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/25/investing/tesla-netflix-mome…
Musk said that on October 25, 2013. Stock is up 44% since then, S & P up 21%…
Hmmm…
Just saying’, Swift…
Way long Tesla (this company is not just about the cars…)
9 Likes
Speculative bubbles can persist for quite awhile.
sw
1 Like
probably a good move since Musk himself said the stock was over priced.
Musk said that on October 25, 2013. Stock is up 44% since then, S & P up 21%…
You and stillwater9999 are both right, and yet both wrong in all ways that matter. The most recent time that Musk said that TSLA was a bit high was on September 4, 2014, a day when TSLA hit 291.42. It’s down more than 17% since then.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/briansolomon/2014/09/05/elon-mus…
Currently, for people who can recognize that Tesla is an energy storage and utilization company rather than a car company, I think it’s clear that the company is worth far more than its current stock price. Of course if it fails it’s worth far less, but at this point there’s no reason to think it won’t execute on its plans.
And if it does execute, people are lined up to buy more of its products than it can possibly produce, at prices providing a generous profit. They are improving their products at breakneck speed. What’s not to like? Their last earnings reports was phenomenal. I was buying at 220 and I’m buying now. I’ll think about not buying more at about 300.
As for the car, to drive it is to love it. The things they are perfecting in a high priced family sedan (which is simultaneously a low price performance car), they will bring to their $35,000 mass market Model 3. It is hard to find people who want to go back once they’ve driven a Tesla – I certainly won’t.
-IGU-
9 Likes
“The most recent time that Musk said that TSLA was a bit high was on September 4, 2014”
What he said:
Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk publicly admitted Thursday that his company’s stock may be overvalued. “I do think people sometimes get carried away with our stock,” Musk said in Carson City, Nevada, at a press conference, according to CNBC. “I think our stock price is kind of high right now, to be totally honest.”
It is very, very rare for a CEO to say his stock his overvalued, generally a “no no” that shareholders do not appreciate.
Itsgoingup then states:
“Currently, for people who can recognize that Tesla is an energy storage and utilization company rather than a car company, I think it’s clear that the company is worth far more than its current stock price.”
Well if anyone knows what Tesla is all about it would have to be Musk, he knows more about the energy storage/battery potential than anyone else and yet just last fall he is saying the TSLA stock is overvalued.
Musk is a clearly a very interesting entrepreneur, the kind that will very likely find his way to either spectacular success or failure.
TSLA does not fit my investment criteria.
sw
IGU,
Touché. 
You said: Currently, for people who can recognize that Tesla is an energy storage and utilization company rather than a car company, I think it’s clear that the company is worth far more than its current stock price. Of course if it fails it’s worth far less, but at this point there’s no reason to think it won’t execute on its plans.
Yes, that’s it in a nut shell. Remember the days when we said “Apple Computer?” Tesla is a bet on Musk and his ability to execute his game changing vision.
I’m in…
Best, Swift…
Way long Tesla
2 Likes
“TSLA does not fit my investment criteria.”
A good reason not to buy it. There are lots of stocks out there. Discipline pays off.
Tesla as a company will either soar or crash. If Musk and crew can execute their ambitious plans it will be the former. If they can’t, it will be the latter. There are stocks with less risk, especially since it will be 5 years or so before one can be sure about Tesla beginning to meet it’s goals.
I am far more enthusiastic about Tesla the car, than TSLA the stock. To drive a Tesla car is to want one but the same isn’t true about TSLA the stock, it’s superiority to competition is far less clear.
3 Likes
I am far more enthusiastic about Tesla the car, than TSLA the stock. To drive a Tesla car is to want one but the same isn’t true about TSLA the stock, it’s superiority to competition is far less clear.
I love that comment Mauser. that’s exactly the way I feel.
Saul