A few weeks back, I mentioned the story of New York offshore wind projects. One major player in that project was Danish company Orsted
Orsted in the news again - this time in New Jersey, and a $4B writedown
More details -
After I read the above, I thought about an old radio commercial where two guys are going back and forth on items they need for a road trip. Each time the other person responds check. When they get to âcarâ - silence.
I think Ocean Wind could have been the same situation, but replace âcarâ with âshipâ
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Orsted still has the $4 billion write down, but has negotiated a deal on withdrawal penalties.
Danish wind farm developer Orsted will pay New Jersey $125 million to settle claims over the companyâs cancellation of two offshore wind farms last year - a little over a third of what the company once was required to payâŚ
The company would not say if it plans to propose future projects in New Jersey.
DB2
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Not Orsted, but Shell seems interested.
New Jerseyâs first offshore wind farm is one major step closer to reality with the release of a critical federal study.
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management last week released its Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Atlantic Shores South Wind Project. The company behind the development, Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind, is a joint venture between Shell and EDF Renewables.
Plans for Atlantic Shores South call for up to 200 wind turbines across a lease area that spans more than 100,000 acres and is less than nine miles from Long Beach Island at its closest point to shore. The transmission cables that will carry electricity generated by the turbines are planned to come onshore in Atlantic City and Sea Girt. NJ offshore wind projects clears significant federal hurdle | NJ Spotlight News
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At the same time, as noted in another thread Shell has been cutting back on wind by several billion dollars and laying off people.
News from AustraliaâŚ
Shellâs move to axe offshore wind plans a âred flagâ for other projects
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/shell-s-move-to-axe-offshore-wind-plans-a-red-flag-for-other-projects/ar-BB1njAoO
The energy companyâs decision to axe its offshore wind plans in Victoria will be a massive blow to the stateâs target of generating 20% of its energy from offshore wind by 2032.
DB2
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I am always suspicious of charts with predicted trend lines where the actual historical data shows no such change in the trend. Indeed, the last 4 segments of the chart show exactly the opposite, the noticeable change in the one happens to be during the first brutal year of the pandemic.
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So am I, but Iâm not sure thatâs the case here. This line is labeled âpath to net zero.â That strikes me more as an indication of what it will take to get to net zero by 2050 than a prediction or projection of what is expected to happen.
âPeter
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The main thing this chart shows is that during recessions, fossil fuel use goes down (presumably all energy use goes down). So next recession will likely be similar. Also, if world population begins to decline we are likely to see fuel use also decline.
That isnât to say that if we replace some fossil fuel use with renewables (solar, nuclear, wind, etc) that we wonât see more decline in fossil fuel use. Hopefully that will be the case, because it is the most highly desired outcome! So far, most renewables have satisfied NEW demand, but with any luck, itâll start replacing fossil fuel usage in earnest.
It also says âGlobal Carbon Emissions May have Peaked Last Year.â So sounds like Bloomberg really thinks that 2023 was the peak.
I guess weâll know at the end of 2024.
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I wouldnât count on a big decline this year. A few news stories from this yearâŚ
Indiaâs coal sector sees huge leaps in output and demand
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India burns twice as much coal as the US, and will see increasing demand for the black stuff in the coming years.
But the worldâs largest coal consumer is China, by far. China burns over half of the worldâs mined coal each yearâŚ
From the CNBC linkâŚ
A report by Global Energy Monitor released Thursday found that net annual coal capacity grew by 48.4 GW, representing a 2% year-over-year increase. China alone accounted for about two-thirds of new coal plant capacity.
Other countries that brought new coal plants online included Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Korea, Greece and Zimbabwe.
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I donât see any big declines happening for petroleum or natural gas either. Even in the US, natural gas consumption for electric power generation keeps going up, and this year is no different.
One last point. It should be remembered that just because fossil fuel consumption may peak out at some point, that doesnât mean the atmospheric CO2 concentration will start going down too. Twenty years ago, the world burned less fossil fuels than it does today, but the CO2 concentration was still going up around 2 ppm per year on average. Today, the rate of increase is more like 2.5 ppm per year.
- Pete
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I wouldnât count on a big decline in any year, the global energy market is just too large. But CO2 emissions in the US peaked in about 2007 and IIRC about the same time in the EU. Trend is in the right direction in the developed world.
Most analysts/agencies that Iâve read lately seem to predict peak CO2 emissions will occur around 2028, something like that. So I was surprised that BloombergNEF seems to indicate it may have already happened. In any event, I think youâd need a couple years of decline before you can conclude that the peak has been reached.
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From two weeks ago:
Deutsche Bank cuts target for Orsted on new US offshore wind impairments
https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/deutsche-bank-cuts-target-for-orsted-on-new-us-offshore-wind-impairments/2-1-1696610
Deutsche Bank has cut its estimates and target price for Orsted after the Danish offshore wind champion last week announced new write-downs related to US offshore wind activities.
The utility Thursday had posted a more than doubling of its second quarter loss amid combined impairment losses of $583 million from the scrapping of a previously hyped Swedish e-fuels project and a delay at its 704MW Revolution Wind project off the US east coast.
DB2
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How much will it cost?
Leading Light Wind, a partnership of Invenergy and co-developer energyRe, is asking state utilities regulators to pause its project while it shops for turbines, the engines that help turn wind into electricity.
As a result, the backers of the largest offshore wind project ever approved in New Jersey do not know how they will generate the power they promised to deliver or how much it will cost.
DB2
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Sorry, been behind on the wind energy related news items.
There was the Vineyard Wind turbine incident offshore MA last month that messed up beaches and water with debris
And offshore UK project @ Dogger Bank has had two wind blade incidents in the last four or five months
The wind turbine supplier in all three cases was GE Vernova. Amused by this
In May, the Dogger Bank Wind Farm announced âdamage was sustainedâ to a blade on an installed turbine. A GE Vernova official last month said they see the Vineyard Wind incident and that in the UK as âvery likely disconnected,â and that the first UK incident was caused by an installation issue.
Hmm?? So three different issues
â
On a separate, but wind-related note, some developments in Maryland this weekâ
Meanwhile GE has announced that they are discontinuing their largest model. Probably while reviewing reliability issues. Can engineers resolve the problems?
Do you have a link?
Meanwhile, GE says that high winds are the cause of the failures. They donât have hurricanes of the mid-Atlantic states, do they?
GE Vernova blames latest offshore wind blade failure on high winds
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ge-vernova-blames-latest-offshore-wind-blade-failure-high-winds-shares-rise-2024-08-30/
Energy equipment maker GE Vernova on Friday said recent turbine blade failures at two offshore wind farms in the United States and the United Kingdom are unrelated and blamed the latest mishap on strong winds. The statement comes as the company has been grappling with fallout from three separate blade accidents in four months at two wind farms that are still under construction.
DB2
Canât find the link. But was posted here. GE Wind search turns up postings on this subject back to 2022.
This is not significant news. These 3 wind turbines (each about 15 MW capacity) are new machines. GE will figure out why the issues occurred and come up with solutions.
Yes they do!
- Hurricane Isaias and Tropical Storm Fay were the most damaging storms to reach the Mid-Atlantic region in the 2020 hurricane season.
- The 2004 Hurricane Season brought the most tropical cyclones to the Mid-Atlantic region.
- In the Mid-Atlantic, the years from 2000â2020 saw nearly twice as many hurricanes as the preceding two decadesâ1980â2000.