The International Energy Agency issued a report indicating that world oil demand will set a new record in 2023.
From the link:
Global oil demand is set to rise by 1.9 mb/d in 2023, to a record 101.7 mb/d, with nearly half the gain from China following the lifting of its Covid restrictions. Jet fuel remains the largest source of growth, up 840 kb/d. OECD oil demand slumped by 900 kb/d in 4Q22 as weak industrial activity and weather effects lowered use, while non-OECD demand was 500 kb/d higher.
World oil supply growth in 2023 is set to slow to 1 mb/d following last year’s OPEC+ led growth of 4.7 mb/d. An overall non-OPEC+ rise of 1.9 mb/d will be tempered by an OPEC+ drop of 870 kb/d due to expected declines in Russia. The US ranks as the world’s leading source of supply growth and, along with Canada, Brazil and Guyana, hits an annual production record for a second straight year.
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Last month, the IEA reported that world coal consumption was a record high in 2022. See thread here:
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Based on past trends, it wouldn’t surprise me if global natural gas consumption is also at a record high this year. According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, natural gas consumption is now above 4000 billion cubic meters per year (as of 2021).
The big three fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) are all at or near all-time highs in consumption. Clearly, past and current efforts at reducing carbon dioxide emissions are failing. Even in the US, CO2 from natural gas combustion is higher than ever and emissions from petroleum products are flat to down very slightly.
Economic growth in Asia, including India, is driving most of these world increases. It doesn’t really matter how many Paris Agreements are signed, or how many UN climate meetings take place.
- Pete