Wow 4.9% GDP, is the Fed going to hike again?



I’m guessing nooooo.


Andy, here is a paranoid thought, but a good one

The big players are shorting the hell out of the retail players…managed to do quite profitably from what I see in the last couple of months…

the Fed feels their work is done already by the bond market mayhem and its effect on stock market.

And the biggies, and those with dee pockets who are done with their Tax loss harvesting come back to market in November…to help poor Charlie and his portfolio recover some of the grueling losses :grinning:

Wishful thinking, but why not? we can dream right!



I agree it is a guess. This means the FED needs to tighten up either way on its messaging. The economy should not be guessing at the FED.

Or we take Powell at his word and there will be one to three more rate hikes. Making our press reporters crap in our eyes and ears.

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Hi Leap1,

When did Powell actually commit to this…must have missed it. I thought he said, as always, they are data dependent…but long way away from cutting rates is the only constant matra he has not swayed from…Not the recent FOMC meeting but the one earlier than that, I thought he said they would skip the October but likely increase the rate in Nov but data dependent…and in the recent concluded one,

So far, he hasnt committed to not increasing the rate, but I will be shocked if he does, given the rhetoric we have heard from other members…

My guess - Nothing in November but keeps it open for the next meeting data dependent.

Oct meeting notes

My colleagues and I remain resolute in our commitment to returning inflation to 2 percent over time. A range of uncertainties, both old and new, complicate our task of balancing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much against the risk of tightening too little. Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment. Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.

Given the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the Committee is proceeding carefully. We will make decisions about the extent of additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

Thank you. I look forward to our conversation.


The GDP figures are false. People should be more aware of this.

GDP includes government spending which has risen in the USA by about 7% in the last year or so.

$600 billion debt increase last month, so that should help GDP growth.

4.9% growth is really negative using the above formula

If the US economy is doing so well then how come income tax receipts are going down:

Yellen is an embarrasment:

Government consumption expenditures & gross investment. Real percent change from preceding quarter, annualized.

2022 Q4   5.3%
2023 Q1   4.8
2023 Q2   3.3
2023 Q3   4.6



How is government spending false spending? If the government orders 10 747s, how is that less spending than Delta ordering 10 747s?

The employees of Boeing spend their paychecks the same way regardless of who bought the planes.


Artificial ‘growth’ - like putting it on the credit card. If the government orders 10 747s it just prints the monet to buy them, Delta doesn’t.

Zimbabwe’s GDP must have sky rocketed:

It doesn’t print, it borrows. Just like a consumer may borrow to buy a house that might take 30 years (or more) to pay off.

Doesn’t make it artificial.

Your comparison displays a fundamental lack of understanding. Would be like comparing the value of the peso to the dollar (about 20 pesos per dollar) and claiming that Mexico’s economy is strong because there are a lot of pesos.


You mean that it is going to pay it back :slight_smile:

Or perhaps they will just print some more money to repay it and the interest

Or maybe borrow alot at 5 percent and inflate the dollar 20 percent and pay it all back.


I have one of those; but I don’t really feel like a Trillionaire!


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I am saying he needs to be a little less vague than data-dependent. He is right not be as I think and write. Because the industrials he does not want to inform he will raise rates. He has to hold off. The corporate planners need to build factories right now.

Powell is not trying to slow the economy.

He is talking down inflation. It might hold off some inflation.

I agree he does not have to raise rates. By mid 2024 we will be beginning to build economies of scale which will be a major deflationary force.

Until mid 2024 the truth be told we are stuck with inflation.