WSJ: $TSLA Deliveries Tumble for Q2

Wall Street Journal headline: Tesla Vehicle Deliveries Tumble After China Factory Shutdown

Subheadline: A string of record quarterly deliveries came to an end in the second quarter, when Tesla handed over 254,695 vehicles to customers…

Tesla Inc. TSLA 1.24%? vehicle deliveries fell quarter-over-quarter for the first time in more than two years, reflecting an extended shutdown in China, supply-chain disruptions and challenges associated with opening two new factories.

Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker said Saturday that it had delivered 254,695 vehicles to customers in the three months ended in June, down from 310,048 in the prior quarter. Deliveries were up roughly 27% from last year’s second quarter, when Tesla handed over 201,304 vehicles.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast that Tesla would deliver around 264,000 vehicles in the second quarter. Many analysts in recent weeks had lowered their expectations after the company had to temporarily shut down its largest factory, in Shanghai, because of local Covid-19 restrictions. Tesla also has had trouble getting its new factories in Germany and Texas up to speed, Mr. Musk has said, calling the plants “gigantic money furnaces.”

. . . But June 2022 production was highest ever

The company produced 258,580 vehicles in the second quarter, down from 305,407 in the first quarter and up from 206,421 in last year’s second quarter. “June 2022 was the highest vehicle-production month in Tesla’s history,” the company said.

As bad as this sounds, at least Tesla will show a profit despite their Bitcoin holdings. More questionable, however, are the falloff in Model S and Model X sales in Europe, and yet in this WSJ look, Tesla shipped more of the S & X models this Q2 than Q2 2021. That’s the weird part of this press release. Something ain’t right. Model S and X are not happening in Europe where Q2 2022 numbers as those two models’ registrations dropped off a cliff. Photos even surfaced on Twitter of S & X models sitting in field lots, collecting dust in Norway and Belgium IIRC).

July 20th will be an interesting conference call……

The decline in deliveries, which include cars that Tesla has sold or leased out, is poised to weigh on the company’s second-quarter earnings, scheduled for July 20. Analysts expect Tesla in a few weeks to report roughly $2 billion in quarterly profit, up from around $1.1 billion during the year-earlier period but down from its $3.3 billion record in the first quarter.

The auto maker’s bottom line is likely to be dented by a roughly $475 million bitcoin-related impairment, according to Credit Suisse. Tesla bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin in early 2021, when the cryptocurrency was trading above $28,000. The price of bitcoin fell below $17,700 in mid-June, according to CoinDesk. The company’s disclosed accounting methodology factors in the lowest market price of bitcoin since the asset was acquired.


Tesla delivered roughly 238,533 Model 3 sedans and Model Y compact sport-utility vehicles combined during the second quarter, up from 199,409 of those models a year earlier. It delivered 16,162 of its higher-end models—Model S sedans and Model X sport-utility vehicles—up from 1,895 during last year’s second quarter.

Okay, keep in mind this is only 14 countries in EU where registrations are collected, but there, looking over all Tesla models, Tesla is no longer the No.1 brand:

1.Model 3 registrations in these 14 countries for 2022 are below 2021 AND 2020 registrations:…

2. Model S registrations in these 14 countries is almost non-existent. In the first 6 months of 2022, only 14 new Model S cars registered for license plates; however, last year at this time 5,445 Model S were registered.…

3. I thought Model Y registrations would be up more than last year’s total (Tesla began selling Model Y in August 2021 in EU, so there were only 5 months of sales for that model.)

In the five last months of 2021, 22,518 Model Y sedans registered in these 14 EU countries. And yet, check this out: 21,898 Model Y sedans registered in these 14 EU countries in the first-half of 2022. That’s a drop off of 620 Model Ys, eventhough, supposedly, Chinese shimpments added to Berlin shipments of Model Y should have been more than enough to beat last year’s five-month total. (I add that I’ve yet to see fields of Model Ys collecting dust in Europe. It’s just the long in tooth Model S and Model Xs.)

Note: the Berlin factory produces Model Y sedans. They recently announced they have hit a 1,000 Model Ys manufactured in a week and are believing that will step up going forward this Summer.…

4. And ending with the abysmal drop off in Model X sales in these 14 countries: only 14 Model X Teslas registered here this year, the lowest, EVER.…

5. If we look at Tesla’s market share in these 14 countries, Musk’s brand only has +5.34% market share, it’s lowest market share in history.

Top 10 EV brands’ registrations in these 14 countries for Q2 2022. Tesla tied with Puegeot for sixth place in number of registrations.

Volkswagen     9.59%
BMW            7.12%
Kia            6.70%
Audi           6.40%
Hyundai        6.20%
Mercedes       5.70%
**Tesla          5.30%**
Peugeot        5.30%
Skoda          4.80%
Fiat           4.80%
Renault        4.00

By the way, one bright spot for Tesla in these 14 countries: Model Y was the 3rd best selling model, although Tesla was tied for 6th in total badge sales.

Of note: this coming quarter keep an eye of Chinese sales in Norway where the battery swap stations are proving to be a hit. The Chinese car manufacturers are just entering the EU. I think any Western manufacturer not seriously pursuing battery swaps are going to realize down the line that the missed out on a sweet recurring revenues and profit generator. They are huge with Chinese buyers, many of whom live in high rises and who don’t want the hassle of long waits for charging. This is why they are hot in Norway as well. Loads of people in Oslo are talking about the battery swap as their answer to not having to be frustrated with long waits at Tesla superchargers. Like in America, many times Tesla supercharger stations are out of order for days and weeks (just read the complaints on Twitter with accompanying photos from all over America.)

Battery swaps: one-monthly subscription fee. Guaranteed revenue which builds monthly at a fast clip for the company and shareholders. Moreover, battery swap suscribers know the batteries will always be available for five-minute swaps, i.e., there won’t be “Sorry for the inconvenience, but this supercharger station is down for maintenance. Please use the next available station.” One monthly fee $199 or $299 (Nio’s plans) covers as many swaps as a car driver might want in a month. The time saved is another bonus.

Lastly, there are new EV motorcycles and scooters in China which are very popular with the young. These batteries come out of vending machines. A rider can actually “refuel” faster with a battery which has more range than a full tank of gas. I’ve seen demos of guys riding up to a machine, swiping their cards or cellphones, and they take the new battery out, and the old one slides back into that same slot. The rider then places the battery in a chamber built into the scooter or motorcycle in less than 20-seconds and off they go.

p.p.s. Tesla closed at $681.79 on Friday 1 JUL 22

$TSLA recently hit its 52-week low back on 24 MAY 22 of $620.57 and on 16 JUN 22 looked ready to retest that low. That day, it got down to $626.08 . . .

I am hoping my Tesla daily chart prints for you without having to go to twitter?

Anyway, lots of chatter and hope on $TSLA Twitter by longs that the upcoming stock-split will boost trading in $TSLA shares and blah, blah, blah, more fanbois will buy shares weekly.

We’ll see.

The stock split didn’t boost $AMZN. I don’t know how much longer the fanbois can ignore the macro. Higher rates on car loans. Higher prices for cars.

An Apterra at $25 grand is all you need for a life of free power for the car if you live down here in the Keys. And if you bring a battery swap shop down here (if Nios and other Chinese manufacturers are allowed to travel our country - see earlier story on this board), you could build a restaurant/convenience store around it and bank. The OEMs - including Tesla - had better wake up. There’s more money to be made with recurring revenue battery swaps than anything I’ve seen in the EV field.

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