It is a shame we lost all the earlier posts on this name.
Lumber prices are declining and at this level soon lumber manufacturers will not be making money and they will start cutting production. Alternatively China demand may pickup, btw, it has never really recovered post COVID. I am not sure the industry has an ability to adjust quickly. We need to see.
WY stock price is slowly declining and it is at 3 year low. WY has increased its revenue streams but their primary business is lumber and if the prices goes down it will impact them.
If $WY gets closer to $20, I will be a buyer. I am not expecting it to happen quickly, it will be like watching paint dry or if you prefer, watching the trees grow, in Southern US trees typically grow for 20~25 years before they are ready for harvesting for saw logs and in Western US (my backyard Washington) it can grow up to 30 to 40 years. So patience is not a virtue but a basic requirement in this business.
China manufacturing is weak, PMI @ 49.1, employment and raw material inventory are at contractionary territory. Yet across the world for ex: Brazil new capacity are coming online.
The price moved up to $30. The below 5 year chart shows a strong support around $27.5 and resistance around $35.
There was a period I used to trade stocks in range, no longer. REIT’s often trade in ranges and generally I was successful trading them in range. However, option bid-ask is so wide, that makes using options suboptimal. So you have to buy the stock, collect the dividend and get out near the upper range and then wait again patiently.
For those who enjoy clipping coupons, these are good ideas.
Interesting that you mention WY in the context of clipping coupons.
Got into their 7-3/8 of '32 back in '08 at 69 and change for a projected YTM of 10.7%. Got into their 7-7/8 of '26 the same year at 64 and change for a projected YTM of 12.6%.
And I agree that those kinds of opportunities still exist if one knows where to look and is willing to do the needed due diligence and to accept the obvious risks.
