Finally corrected after two years
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Normalizing (or being inverted) for a day does not a trend make. IIRC, the initial study required inversion for a quarter to signal a recession. Don’t recall any timelines about normalizations though. While nice to see, not making any decisions based on a single day.
The 10 year minus 2 year Treasury yield generally goes from negative to positive for a few months before the start of a recession.
Wendy
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Take a look at the official Treasury data. 5yr and beyond is uninverted. But we still have a long way to go on the short end. I’d say more wishful thinking than good news.
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The problem with this is a vague memory from 1980 - 1981. If memory serves me we were winding up demand-side economics and the rules were changing for the yeild curve as an indicator of recessions. We have now wound up supply-side economics.
Nations get very little choice about getting supply side or demand side economics. They can play it well or poorly. The economic conditions force one or the other to different extents and as offsets of other nations.
In the US the economic terms have changed.