Ysdrasill Mid-Year Check-in

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Hi everyone,

I thought this year I would provide a mid-year update, on top of my full year one.

Below the yearly update since I started investing (and found this board at the same time) in November 2020.

I choose to look at both NDX (100) and SPX. In 2020 i invested for about 6 weeks as a beginner.
I also updated all my calculation to start from November 2020, so the CAGR comparisons are fair.

Here are my current holdings:

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And my results so far (2026 is YTD)

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While I am very happy overall with the results, I am aware that this in in the midsts of a raging bull market. What’s more, I work in AI, and I am very disappointed in myself convinction wise as I saw the memory crunch coming from a mile away (I actually owned a LOT of MU at some point and then sold because I didn’t understand why the results weren’t improving … was too early).

That being said, I am finally nearing the SPX CAGR since I started investing, and that’s a great feeling. I am hoping we get a few more good years before the next correction, as otherwise this methodology doesn’t work - since we underperform so much on bad years.

However, I am learning more about diversifying my portfolio (at least to some extend, within the areas I know well), and managing to keep to my max of 20 companies. I’ve also switch to starting new position with small options positions, which allows me to cut my losses rapidly or exercise the leverage these give me to build into bigger positions rapidly.

On the subjects I am still working on:

  • timing of entries and selling / I’m learning basics around charts, and after foraying into much more advanced technical analysis, have made the conclusion (for now! ‘Strong opinions, Loosely held’) that it really doesn’t bring more value than standard moving averages
  • valuation / Off-topic for this board, but with ALAB as my top position, needless to say I am concerned. I will likely trim at least a bit today there for my sake

For the second half of the year, I would like to start scaling into robotics. As you will see, I’ve already invested in several companies that are either proxies for the theme, or direct exposure (like CCXI, which I want much more exposure to but can’t find an entry to). Of course, all of this is driven by the performance of the companies I own :slight_smile:

I am every so thankful for this board and for the knowledge you share.

I also see that the rate of posting is lowering, and much more is moving over to Reddit, which I think is the natural order of things.

The only bit that worries me is that on reddit the current Saul board equivalent is not moderating who can post, and that I think can lead to challenges.

Looking forward to many more years of learning alongside you all!

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Nice results and good looking portfolio there!

Same here! I was around a 10% position when they had that 8.7B quarter go to 8B, and then guide for about ~9B. I kept thinking if they had only posted slightly stronger results I would have stayed in for the entire way up.

For the second half of the year, I would like to start scaling into robotics. As you will see, I’ve already invested in several companies that are either proxies for the theme, or direct exposure

Interesting you mention this as I saw a lot of robotics names started trading together. A name I was surprised to see get scooped up trading as a robotics stock is Allegro MicroSystems ALGM. I wasn’t too impressed with their last quarter and sold them back. However, I did take a tiny starter in this name again. Their sensors are supposedly going to be in a lot of humanoid robots. Ouster OUST is another potential name to look with a different type of sensor. I’m also keeping my eyes on the battery side with former names like Electrovaya ELVA.

The market seems keen on rallying behind sectors before they are posting strong results right now. I don’t want to do too much anticipating ahead of demand, but it does seem like robotics might be the next mini-mania, like photonics and memory have been earlier this year.

Funny enough people posting freely is not as big as an issue right now as auto-moderation from Reddit blocking legitimate posts it flagged. I’ve had to reduce moderation settings more than I’ve had to enforce removal of content. There’s been the occasional spam post about stock lawsuits, but not too many.

One thing I learned from the moderator side, is that the user’s karma/reputation impacts if their post may get auto-flagged. Basically if someone is acting poorly on another sub-Reddit, the system is a lot more likely to also block their post on r/GrowthStockInvesting.

Overall I think there is a good symbiosis, where this board can be a bit more in depth and serious board. Reddit is maybe a bit more casual. I’m also of the philosophy to have a wider range of topics over on Reddit which we’d consider off topic on this board. If you wanted to bring that ALAB valuation topic up over there it could work. Although I still think valuation/trimming talk is fine here as well.

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Thanks Wpr, appreciate the answer and all the work you share!

Haha, on the other hand the fact that we stuck to the numbers is also a good thing; I just feel like here my own knowledge should have prevailed!

I am also looking at ALGM, and OUST. However OUST is being mentioned a bit too much online and that scares me. For Robotics I’ve been riding OSS for a while, and both VPG and CCXI I wasn’t able to scale in. I get scared off by large price movements as I’ve been burned in the past. However, I think I have to recalibrate what large stock movements means, as nowadays stocks can shoot up 200-300% in a matter of a few months.

I agree with that take completly; Right now I want to build my portfolio around continued AI development (hardware, memory, data centers), photonics, robotics, and I want to keep software exposure in the best names (for me APP and RDDT) as they are in my point of vue severely undersold and tend to bounce when the other buckets lose ground, like today.

Appreciate the colour commentary around Reddit - I love the platform and it’s one of the reason I am invested in them as well.

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Thanks for posting your results. Love the idea of a yearly/semi yearly update. I tried monthly but couldn’t come up with much to say most of the time.

I had an oversized position in ALAB but have recently sold out because of valuation concerns. I was curious as to your comfort level with such a high allocation at its current valuation and the bull thesis moving forward to support the price moving forward.

Thanks again!

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I would like to hear more about this. I added a tiny position (<$500) a while back to track this one but I am not seeing any significant news in the last few months.

Also, if you have thoughts on why batteries designed for forklifts would work in this scenario that would be good. I mean those giant ones in factories I would understand as they do not travel around. But, if we are talking humanoid or delivery robots I am not sure how these battery form factors would apply?

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Yeah, they had such a huge spike in the first two days of this week. I only started a position a few weeks back and I watched that >20% jump in a couple of days. It is starting to pull back now, but I’d be interested in hearing others comfort in continuing to hold at this time.

Anyone holding on doggedly and waiting to tell us all in a few months that we missed out on the next Amazon?

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I’m probably wrong, but:
• It seems premature to be investing in robotic related stocks. Hard to know which suppliers will win when we don’t have any idea who, outside of the Chinese, will have success. Note that Boston Dynamics is now owned by Korean company Hyundai.

• I still feel there’s no way for us to evaluate battery companies until their products are actually in the market. Look at Donut Labs, for instance. As for ELVA, I’d personally evalute that company solely on what they can do in forklift type applications and if that qualifies it for my investment dollars, then take any optionality as gravy. Lithium has gotten cheaper, EVs in the US are struggling, and Chinese EVs are winning in Europe as well as China. As I’ve posted before, the suitability of batteries for demanding applications depends on performance in a number of criteria, and it’s been rare for new battery technology to excel in enough of that criteria while not being too worse in others.

Just look at Toyota - several years ago they planned to feature a working prototype of an EV powered by solid-state technology at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. That didn’t happen. Then they said 2023. That didn’t happen. Now they’re saying next year. We’ll see. In the meantime, NMC and LFP batteries still dominate EVs. I’m sure someone will crack the code, possibly this decade - I just can’t predict who that will be, and don’t know anyone who can.

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OUST took off like a rocket the previous couple of days. Then today they announced a public offering at $55.22 and the stock tumbled. I got in at $47.50 and rode it up. Saw it crashing this morning and sold pre-market at $55.85. That was one of the shortest holding periods I’ve ever had.

I still like the company and their prospects. No, they aren’t profitable, but they are making rapid progress in that direction. Just closed a big robotics contract which I believe is the first in this market for them. I thought their primary market was automotive, but it turns out Blue City (which is primarily municipal infrastructure) provides most of the revenue at this time.

They also have a new product (I’m not sure that it’s in the market yet) which provides 48-bit color lidar. This is a first of a type, so at present there are no competitors of which I am aware. Prior to this sensor color renderings required that lidar sensor data had to be merged with video data in order to generate full color visual data. Color is pretty important, like traffic lights for example. I imagine you can determine color by analyzing the light position, but just taking it directly from the sensor data eliminates the need to do so. I’m sure there are numerous other situations in which color is important information.

I’ll let it settle down and retake a position later.

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Sorry to continue down the slightly OT route, but why is Cognex not on the radar of traders? They were a play on robots almost 10yrs ago because of their sensor. The issue was robotics wasn’t actually growing back then and a few of us were in too early.

Are they coming back as a player or did they lose something along the way? The two articles I read list companies, along with the name Ouster here, I have never heard of before.

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I believe Chinese company Hesai as well as Innoviz have something similar. Maybe Ouster’s is better in some ways, I don’t know.

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I did not really research this, just took what I gathered from and SA article. I have no idea if Ouster’s product is in some way superior, but the article I read made out as if it was an important innovation. Maybe it was the American made claim? But even so, a lot of Ouster’s supply chain reaches into Asia.

I got lucky by getting in on the way up and getting out before they crashed completely. It was not my plan when I first bought, but it seemed to make sense to take a quick profit. I think the main reason the stock price cratered so rapidly is that they priced a secondary offering way below current market price so of course that prompted a sell off.

Nevertheless, I’ll keep this company on my radar, I think there’s a lot of promise. Ouster is not yet consistently profitable, but they are headed in that direction. Their revenue tends to be lumpy and much of their revenue comes from a relatively small number of customers (their reporting is not very clear regarding customer count or percent contribution).

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