Hi everyone,
Below the yearly update since I started investing (and found this board at the same time) in November 2020.
First a quick personal update - I started to work full time on my own business now and so deposits will likely be absent for a good while. It was time for me to try working for myself. I am excited (and scared of course), but 2025 will likely be a highly interesting year.
As part of that transition, I am just (yesterday) coming off a 5 months trip through europe and africa. Life is so rich 
Now for the investing:
- 2020: 2.23% (2 months) vs NDX +48.8%
- 2021: -8.01% (with a peak at +47%) vs NDX +27.51%
- 2022: -67.7% vs NDX -32.38%
- 2023: +41.32% vs NDX +55.13%
- 2024: +75.3% vs NDX +27.3%
Here is my portfolio today - I plan to make significant changes in the days to come after taking some time to review each company:
All in all, it’s been a really great for me. However, I have no added funds to this account since the 2022 debacle, and so I am still a small way off my initial investment … let that sink in for a while. After a +40% and a +75% year, which are by no means standard years for investing, I am still below my initial investment.
That means the cost of opportunity of my decision to run this portfolio is still hugely negative, both from a purely financial standpoint, and from the hours I have put learning and reading.
But, learning is the greatest compounding interest.
As I wrote last year: "Coming from a family where investment, and personal finances were pretty much never discussed, I had, and still have a steep learning curve. "
This is still highly true, and I suspect it will always be.
As for past goals and learnings - I also wrote last year:
"For 2024, I would like to:
- Beat the Nasdaq for the first time
- Make progress on the my entry/exit timing, using first all actual business numbers when we get quarterly earnings, but also RSI, EV/NTM sales and drawdowns from ATH."
Both of these have been achieved, and by a significant margin. I learned to trim position as they grow, and to sell partially when they reach valuations I cannot comprehend and everyone and their mom is yelling to buy them. That served me well with SMCI and CELH.
However, I made many, many costly mistakes. With the same SMCI, I started rebuying on the way down, to finally sell after the government investigation news. That cost me half the gains I had generated on the stock.
I still hold today TMDX and ASPN, when in hindsight it is evident I should have sold both and re-allocated at the first sign of weakness. I am now holding them because I believe they are at extremely depressed valuation, but I might be entirely wrong.
My goals for 2025:
- Beat the Nasdaq for a second time, proving this is not a fluke year
- Further progress on my entry/exit timing and solidify my own thesis around stocks
- If finance permit, slowly start adding some funds again - I would like to wait to have gotten back to my initial investment
My plan is to continue investing mostly in domains I understand very well, notably in AI and tech, as well as ecommerce. I consider this my investing hedge.
I am ever so thankful for the contributions of this board, and I am looking forward to this new year. I believe it will bring a challenging environment for investments, with a growing divide in valuations and company performance.
Where there is challenge, there is opportunity
My best wishes to you all!
Ysdrasill