If you trust the data coming out of China, the economy is stagnant and the demographic picture is grim. If you take your Chinese data with a grain of salt, the economy and demography of China are in a unrecoverable nose dive.
If there was anything that might help China hold on, it would be strong international trade. Unfortunately, many countries are stepping away from deals with China and removing that last sliver of hope for the Chinese.
With 100% tariffs from the US and around 50% from the EU, the Chinese EV industry is being backed into a corner…and its only going to get worse. China’s retaliatory measures are limited by their dependence upon foreign imports and attempts to restrict exports of other materials like gallium have backfired.
Zeihan predicts US & EU tariffs on China’s EVs will double.
That is a possibility as EU & US automakers have great influence on their governments and do not wish to compete with Chinese cheap EVs. They like the $40k and up pricing that allows for big margins. And China’s has little ability to fight the trade war.
China’s lousy demographics means it cannot maintain domestic consumption. And US & EU economic war upon China cuts into its export business. You may remember Zeihan’s 2023 predict that China’s economy collapses in 10 years.
And as China some will have enough people to man its factories and other nations in Asia & Mexico, with lower wages, will take over low end production of goods.