Adjusted Earnings were up a penny from 4 cents to 5 cents year over year and sequentially. That brought adjusted trailing earnings up to 10 cents. At a stock price of $36.78 that gives them an adjusted PE of over 360. Their PE as reported (GAAP) is meaningless, but is over 1000. Same store sales were up 5.6% which was a decrease from 7.5% a year ago and from 7.7% sequentially.
Sorry, but I see no reason to be in this stock at this time. If their adjusted trailing earnings were eventually to increase five times, to 50 cents, they’d still have a PE over 70. It’s hard for me to see much stock price appreciation.
You’re right. It is expensive, BUT the earnings trajectory isn’t too bad.
I think the key data to watch:
- Restaurant count is 174 today- projected to be 204 in a year.
- Earnings on a ~30% Q on Q
- If earnings stay on that path, earnings would hit 0.46 in a year.
- A year from now, ZOES at 58, would put the trailing PEG at 0.50
If food costs don’t suddenly kill them, I think 30% Q on Q is doable. This would leave me with a return on my investment of 34.37/share as 58%.
Things that I think will drive future growth:
- Long-term saturation target = 4000 restaurants (even if they get half of that, there is a long runway).
- The desire and need for healthier dining options by both more health conscious youth and an aging population with health concerns.
- Uniqueness. No one else is doing this now. There will be a first mover advantage.
Of course,traffic at ZOES restaurants is not exploding, but it is constantly and consistently growing. IMO, a reasonable expectation of 58% ROI backed by a strong trend isn’t the worst place to put money.
Maybe ZOES is worth a PE of 70 a year from now. Maybe this is a good time to dip your toe into restaurant stocks.
PS. I have watched my 1% dwindle to 0.85% over the first quarter, but just plopped another 0.5% in. It’s a very small bet for me, but one I feel OK about.
But consider the risk. What if they don’t. At current earnings they support a price of $2.00 and they are selling at $37.00!!!
First, your right on the risk. Hence, my low investment.
I also have to admit that I love the idea. I consider myself less objective than I should be on this. I am in the process of recovering from heart bypass surgery, and there are not a lot of healthy options for me to eat out at. Also, I work at a research center with a lot of new college grads, and they are HUGE on fresh, natural foods. So on the young side there are market forces, and on the older side there are market forces. They have had incredibly consistent business across the board and their profit numbers will soon reflect many new businesses that are rapidly paying themselves off.
For this guy, I started with a whopping 1% of my portfolio, and plan on adding 0.5% each quarter that they continue to perform well. They slip significantly, and I am out. As you point out, it IS priced to perfection, and I am in very early.
First, your right on the risk. Hence, my low investment
Low allocation doesn’t seem like a good reason to set yourself to lose money. Isn’t it better not to lose money, even if it’s just a little bit?
Fair point. I’ll give that some thought.
Though I am certainly not trying to set my self up to loose money.
Challenge with Zoes is their gross margins are low… ~20%…
Compare to Chipotle at ~27%…
this drives down earnings… even if revenue keeps growing for a while, O suspect earnings - even adjusted earnings… - may not grow fast enough…
Either their cost of ingredients or staffing too high
or they aren’t charging enough price…
either way, strong growth earnings seems far away.
just my thoughts.
I started with (Zoe’s as) a whopping 1% of my portfolio, and plan on adding 0.5% each quarter that they continue to perform well. They slip significantly, and I am out. As you point out, it IS priced to perfection, and I am in very early.
Sounds reasonable. And it sounds like you recognize the risk.
Maybe ZOES is worth a PE of 70 a year from now. Maybe this is a good time to dip your toe into restaurant stocks
You want to buy Zoe’s so it can be the next CMG, so if it will turn into CMG than you can wait for real earnings and real earnings growth with 30% yoy for a while. Plenty of time. No need to risk it now.