Zoom Warns investors

I’ve been using a free account at work for a couple months to have calls with customers – I lead marketing and sales for a small manufacturing company (~40 employees). Last week I upgraded to a paid account so I could host multiple internal meetings with ~12 participants in various stages of teleworking or at locations around the plant. Our first was this morning with the group distributed across nine separate locations.

So there’s one new paid account…

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I hate to throw another anecdotal account in here, but our kids school did the same thing over the weekend. To accommodate longer sessions, they moved to a paid format.

Eric

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For what it’s worth…my son just started using Zoom to attend his law school classes from home. He was advised not to record the classes because of potential ‘server issues’. I don’t know if this directive came from the school or indirectly from Zoom.
Jim

Bear,

Maybe the ZM question is all about perspective.

I note that in your example, you felt like 100% growth at 40 PS was “too much”.

Yet, I believe you are a proponent and supporting of DDOG, first buying close to IPO. DDOG is currently at its lowest P/S of 26 with 85% decelerating growth. Pre-COVID, DDOG was a 35-40 P/S with the same growth.

Now, is it true that DDOG is a much smaller company, absolutely. But… what is the TAM of DDOG (an application logging tool in a crowded market) vs ZM who is literally replacing conference call systems throughout the ENTIRE enterprise and education system… today… currently… right now as we speak. They are even replacing entire phone systems. It is now or never for ZM. It’s wild.

I’ve never seen so much free marketing in my life. And I am… anxiously… looking to add. I feel there is likely a short-term bubble… but I more importantly feel like there has never been a free sales motion such that we are seeing here. It is viral. Zoom is the verb for conference call.

This is my perspective of your concern with ZM vs. Saul’s excitement. If ZM is indeed still growing at 100% in 3 years then the prices will be higher than today.

However, I’m inclined to believe it pulls back at some point. Or perhaps not.

Either way, this must be how AMZN felt in the early days I have to imagine. Will it, won’t it, it can’t, could it?

Just a Fool

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How else might they be monetizing free users - would be interested to hear others views.

Some thoughts below, just spitballing, again apologies if this has been discussed already. And yes, some of it is for paid users. But for a lot of this to make sense, they need a large installed base of “free” customers.

1 - Transcription itself. Already offered, I see. A full, searchable record of every call.

2 - Voice biometrics. Who was present on the call (not just logged into the call, but who actually spoke)? Who spoke the most during the call? Was there a lot of cross-talk (interruptions during the call)? What percentage of the call was men talking versus women talking (Gender Identification), something that could be relevant to some institutions to ensure all people are being heard, etc.

3 - Scripting of calls (important during more structured calls or meetings). Did the host state the agenda of the call at the beginning of the call? Did the host outline clear “next steps” at the end of the call? For financial or healthcare transactions, did the company use the proper script before initiating the transaction, e.g. “Please confirm that you agree to transfer ____ from account ____ to account ___” or whatever…

4 - Emotion detection during the video call. Did people get angry or upset during the call? This is an area that is still in its infancy, and very culturally dependent (when using voice only). Now it’s more about people raising their voices, or certain “key words” that are used. But with so much data, Zoom can start to build their own voice models here and provide more feedback to users, or flag certain calls, etc.

In addition, when you combine voice data with video analytics, you have a much better idea of the emotion of people on the call. Zoom has this, obviously, as they are filming all callers! Can you image how valuable that will be to companies trying to sell services to callers through Zoom? Companies could analyze a ton of data (e.g. revenue per call, or customer satisfaction) based on specific scripts used on the call, then modify those scripts to increase sales, provide better service, etc. Companies do this now in their call centers to some degree, but they are limited by having only voice. They can’t “see” their customers’ facial reactions during a traditional call, which helps a lot with emotion detection (especially when combined with the voice data).

And this brings up another huge area for Zoom (again, apologies if already discussed):

5 - Zoom’s platform could easily be integrated into existing call centers, much like we see now with WhatsApp and other messaging platforms, at least here in Europe and the Middle East (can’t comment on the USA, as it’s not my market). As more people get comfortable with Zoom’s platform, I could see companies offering video calls to customers. It will make the interaction more personal, etc. So customers would be using Zoom’s “free” version, while companies contact them, or customers use Zoom to reach out to various companies to resolve issues, get info, etc.

There is a ton of companies now moving their call centers from premise based (10’s if not 100’s of people jammed together in one room, not safe!) to more virtual configurations, with call center agents working from home. The perfect catalyst to drive more video calling. All of the analytics I described above become much more relevant in this kind of environment, e.g. call transcription, voice biometrics, emotion detection, etc. Companies will want to know what is happening on all of these video calls.

Again, just spitballing here. As I wrote some months ago, the problem before Zoom was that most video calling platforms sucked, or they were linked to a mega corporation (Cisco, Microsoft), making it harder for other companies to adopt their solution. Zoom is seen as independent, flexible, and less threatening. And if they can attract so many free users to become the de facto standard, Zoom will also be seen as the go-to platform through which companies can reach their customers and vice versa.

As this virus vaults Zoom into the lead with everyday consumers, those “free” accounts will be monetized through interactions with corporations who are paying top $$ for the privilege. So many possibilities!

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Aha, I see Zoom is way ahead of me:

https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/360038137291-Setti…

While this is for “Zoom Phone,” I assume video integration is already offered, too, and will grow quite fast as more companies offer this option as a differentiator.

If Zoom becomes the standard for consumers, and companies finally have one video calling solution to reach them, I think you’ll see a massive increase in the TAM, along with high value up-selling services like voice analytics and voice biometrics, described in my previous post.

I suppose the key to all of this is the following: will consumers want to “see” the person with whom they are speaking, and can it be done fairly seamlessly from their mobile phone or computer? Perhaps one option would be to see the agent, but the agent could not see you (so you don’t feel you have to comb your hair, or whatever)… For your bank, allowing them to see you on the call would mean they could apply facial recognition, another way to secure any transactions one on-line. It’s going to be interesting if this is a significant market or not. Thoughts?

For my 75 year old mother, the answer is definitely yes, she likes to see and talk to people, so long as it’s easy (she loves FaceTime with the grand kids). It gives her a greater feeling of comfort when she can see someone, especially if she has a serious problem she needs solving. Not sure if it’s important to others, I suppose we’ll see.

By the way, most call center software can route you to the same agent each time (or last agent with whom you spoke previously, or whatever), provide that particular agent is available. If not, they can have that particular agent call you back when free. On a video call, this is even more important. For example, my mother could call her bank’s call center, there are over 1000 remote agents, but she will always be routed to “Jenny” (or whomever). If Jenny is on a call, the bank, through Zoom, could easily offer my mother the chance to hang up, and Jenny would call her back (automated, obviously) once available. This allows the bank to really personalize their services, as my Mom would always be talking to Jenny, and seeing Jenny during the call (“Hey Jenny, you dyed your hair!” etc., etc.). Now MegaCorp Banking Conglomerate Inc. becomes “Jenny” for my Mom.

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JoeChristmas,

Very thought provoking. Really appreciate your comments. The idea of call centers using video and developing personal relationships with their customers will be huge.

What I think your post illustrates is that we are just at the tip of the iceberg with Zoom and their TAM is increasing massively by the day.

The virus has acted as a catalyst to accelerate this transition across the globe.

It’s profitable to own the leader of an entirely new industry.

I know others have posted this already but feels like it was with other leaders such as Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, Tesla, …

ClydeJ