On Fastly, which is down another 18% today, the fact that their guidance was flat Q over Q seems…concerning for a stock with an incredibly high 40x P/s valuation. On top of which they may lose their largest customer. A 35% drop in 3 days would concern me, personally, you have a higher risk tolerance though.
I too expressed my concern about Fastly’s growth acceleration going into the rest of the year in a separate thread. Despite the Covid ‘bump’ in usage, Fastly has in fact seemed to be impacted by new Enterprise business wins (likely as companies cut down on budgets).
To label it as a ‘once in a lifetime bump’ is perhaps wrong though, as the business will still be there after Covid. Let’s look at it from a different perspective. Fastly has 304 Enterprise customers, but sees 30,000-100,000 Enterprise customers as its total addressable market. If you believe in Fastly as a proposition (its customer base including the likes of Shopify, Pinterest, Etsy, Amazon, Microsoft perhaps speaks for itself here) then the market is out there, and Fastly will gain a good share of this market. This is without taking Compute Edge into account, which could be a game changer.
Why does the stock price dropping 35% really matter, if you believe the story that you invested in it in the first place is in tact. After all it’s back at a price from just over a week ago. If you still believe in your thesis, then you should welcome this pullback.
Personally I am grateful that I had some cash on the sidelines (from selling LVGO 15% of portfolio, because the story HAD changed for me) and now I welcome the pullback to add to names I have highest conviction in. I feel more comfortable adding to these names after a 35% pullback than at all time highs. But I recognise the need to do both and to not try to time the market.
As for TikTok, this equates to ~6% of Fastly’s revenue, which for a company growing at 62% YoY becomes less consequential. We still don’t know what’s going to happen with it, and for me it has little impact on my long term view. I don’t see why somebody would sell a stock because the company might lose ~ 6% of its revenue indefinitely, or it might not.
I wish I had your gains, believe me, but I’m up 30% ytd so I’m happy with that. If I’d just held on to CRWD, ETSY, PTON, LULU I’d be doing a lot better.
It just seems to me that to be a successful long term investor, you need to hold or add when people are selling if you still believe in the thesis that you bought it in the first place, and to not base your decisions on the reaction of the market.
I noticed in another post that you also regretted selling Shopify, Okta and TTD too early.
Not meaning to be rude, but do you consider the possibility that come 1, 2 years from now, you will be posting how you wished you also had held on to FSLY and DDOG too.