Nektar - Where I stand currently.

Seems to me that these Nektar trials just keep getting better and better… Now add in the NKTR-214 can probably work synergistically with many cancer drugs that partnering opportunities and the eventual approvals and sales resulting from the drugs smell like big block buster and game changing material in oncology treatment. How could I not want to stick with this horse. I’m not letting the fear resulting from faulty analysis kick me out of this investment.

Facepalm.

  1. NKTR has yet to show data for more than 50-75 patients in a given cancer. So, bigger and better, well, not so much.

  2. “blockbuster” and game changer" from the masses tend to be more hype and hope than substance.

  3. faulty analysis literally keeps you out of every other stock, why should biotech be dofferent? Caveat: saying 214 “probably will working synergistically” sounds alot like faulty analysis/wishful thinking!

If you really want to see if 214 is useful when combined with other drugs, maybe you could look at prior IL2 treatment and see where they succeeded and failed. Fortunately, that’s been done already:

http://discussion.fool.com/trying-to-sort-of-nktr-tam-part-3-330…

Face it, NKTR is a 9b scratch off ticket at this point, and most of you are just price anchoring to BMS’ price and to past NKTR stock performance.

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Congratulations on your recent returns! In only 11 years time (the minimum statistically-interesting investment-timescale of 15 years) we will be able realistically to compare your results since 2014 with the S&P.

Point noted, and the lack of a long-term track record is why my delusions of early retirement still include me working mostly full-time for probably 15+ more years. That said, what I take to be the over-arching theme of this particular board within Fooldom could be stated succinctly as something like this: “It is fully feasible as an individual investor to achieve returns that exceed the returns of the broader market”. If people are going to pursue that as a goal, they have to start somewhere…like my ~20% decline for the first 16 months or so as an individual investor, which factors into the numbers going back to the beginning.

I think it would be helpful to the readership here if people adopted the convention, when stating their holding in a certain company as a percentage always used the figure which is the percentage of their overall portfolio of investments on global stock markets.

When I express a percentage holding, that percentage is based on the full amount of my self-directed investments. It does not factor in my home equity, 401k, or other retirement funds that I don’t make the buy/sell decisions for. I think that is how most folks operate here.

For 2 other examples, I know that ProdigalFool17 has clearly laid out that his individual stock investments only make up a small percentage of his total net worth, as he’s been locked into NASA’s retirement options and also owns some commercial real estate. Pretty sure Saul’s cited percentages are for a major, major chunk of his total net worth (still doubtful that it is too close to approaching 100% of net worth or anything).

-volfan84
now approaching +37% for the year; 54% CAGR for past 13 months; 56% CAGR for the past 28 months (sorry, the spreadsheet is easy to update)

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Congratulations on your recent returns! In only 11 years time (the minimum statistically-interesting investment-timescale of 15 years) we will be able realistically to compare your results since 2014 with the S&P.

Point noted

don’t let the negativity of others cause you to feel you have to defend yourself.

Fact of the matter is that on x date you had y amount of money. By choosing the investment you did, you now have more money as a result than if you chose to invest in an S&P index fund over the same period of time.

Should you continue to track your results for next year or ten years or twenty years? Sure. That feedback can allow you the info to pivot, if necessary, or it may serve to validate that you have continued to stay on a more profitable path.

Not to be morbid, but if you get hit by a bus tomorrow, or in 2 weeks, how exactly is one expected to measure your gains respective to the market in any other fashion up to that point?

Nice job…keep it up!

Dreamer

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<<< Face it, NKTR is a 9b scratch off ticket at this point, and most of you are just price anchoring to BMS’ price and to past NKTR stock performance. >>>

Fuma, I think many here have at most a small percentage of their portfolio in NKTR. I know I do, with the remaining in a variety of tech firms. NKTR down ~20% for me while everything else is up. Not too worried about that. I would be if it was a top holding. Anyway, I wanted the exposure to biotech and liked what I have read about Nektar.

I’m interested in your thoughts on alternatives. I recall you discussed Tesaro (TSRO) a bit recently. I didn’t dig into the company but checked out the chart. Looks like it makes a 52 wk low almost every week in the last year. It has struggled but perhaps it is a good value now?

Greg

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I suggested to my wife to invest her IRA in a Supernova portfolio. It has been a smashing success. As I told her, if I die at least you’ll know how to liquidate the 80 position portfolio I trade. She hasn’t gotten into it yet, but she understands the power of investing and truthfully, she is probably a better investor. Less emotional and not focused on the portfolio day to day.

Good luck.

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t may be some time in coming for NKTR to realize its potential, but its science is right in my wheelhouse

Please don’t take this personally, but I thought you were a radiologist? But more to the point is that some of your claims appear to be incredibly naive about IO.

NKTR-214 is the only agent that increases T-cell populations directly, nearly 30 fold

This statement is patently false. NKTR has never demonstrated a 30-fold increase in cytotoxic cells with specificity towards the tumor. Furthermore, they provide no comparison to Opdivo alone. It is fair to say that Opdivo plus 214 results in a 30-fold expansion, but that 214 does this alone is entirely unsubstantiated. Relative increases are nice, but can be deceiving without data about absolute changes, and what the cells are reactive to.

AIDS patients have very few T-cells and develop a host of cancers

This is a blend of something that is false followed by a non-sequitur. People with HIV disease have decreases in CD4 positive cells, but both relative and absolute increases in cytotoxic CD8 T cells. If an increase in cytotoxic T cells could alone protect one from cancer, HIV patients would be expected to have a lower incidence of cancers.They don’t.

when I turn 60, I want two things: a CT scan or my coronary arteries and a 6 month dose of NKTR-214 to get my immune system to kill the cancers I don’t know I even have yet.

Cardiology is admittedly out of my scientific wheelhouse, so I will not comment on CT other than to state the most cardiologists I know think it’s value is more related to the wallets of radiologists. However, the idea of 214 use to kill cancers you don’t know about is, to be blunt, absurd. Acceptance of the Opdivo/214 combination mechanism requires checkpoint inhibition along with 214. A six month dose of 214 does nothing without checkpoint inhibition. Are you willing to subject yourself to taking six months worth of Opdivo plus 214 to fight cancers you don’t even know you have? If you are going to argue that 214 can go it alone, then you must accept that no T cells are being held in check. If none are in check, they have probably already cured your cancer! This is the fundamental basis of the concept of checkpoint in cancer.

If you are going to do this when you are 60 you might need to self prescribe and administrate 214, because you won’t find a competent physician who is willing to do something so crazy. It would be malpractice.

Look, I am not posting this to play one-up, but as evidenced by the number of recs you get on these NKTR posts there are a large group of very gullible people on this board who hang on every word of a physician who claims NKTR science is in his wheelhouse. I’m sorry, reading chest x-rays, mammograms and CT scans certainly would be in your wheelhouse, but IO science is not. The fundamental misunderstandings and ridiculous claims made here are not made by IO physicians, scientists, and certainly not by competent tumor immunologists.

Buyer beware

Cosmid

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Look, I am not posting this to play one-up, but as evidenced by the number of recs you get on these NKTR posts there are a large group of very gullible people on this board who hang on every word of a physician who claims NKTR science is in his wheelhouse. I’m sorry, reading chest x-rays, mammograms and CT scans certainly would be in your wheelhouse, but IO science is not. The fundamental misunderstandings and ridiculous claims made here are not made by IO physicians, scientists, and certainly not by competent tumor immunologists.

Cosmid,

I’m not sure what the intent of your post was, but it really did come across as mean-spirited, at least to me. You also made a lot of assumptions about Jack’s knowledge and expertise. Yes, Jack is a radiologist, but do you actually know what other knowledge, experience, and skills he has? You seem to assume that he is ONLY a radiologist and knows nothing else but how to read images. Did you know that Jack also has a doctorate in molecular biology? Molecular biologists know a lot more than how to read images. I also have an advanced degree in molecular biology and for people who have done actual benchwork and original research and development in the field have a lot of skill in assessing science in general and in fields that are adjacent to molecular biology such as cell biology and immunology. Things that are directly relevant to NKTR. Personally, I got a lot of value out of Jack’s posts, and I think that you have treated him unfairly. He really deserves an apology.

Chris

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“I think the ASCO data clearly shows that NKTR-214 synergistically enhances the effects of Opdivo.”

The ASCO data is small n and the early data is similar to other promising combinations that failed pivotal phase 3 testing. Why is this any different from Incyte’s promising early data in nivo combinations? What specifically gives you so much confidence in NKTR-214 enhancement of Opdivo effects? Is it deepening reponse on later scans? I wish the paper on partial responders turning into complete responders in pivotal trial of Opdivo/Ipi that demonstrated a ton of conversions from partial responders to complete responders 12 months later commented on how many single agent nivo partial responders turned into complete responses

http://oncologypro.esmo.org/Meeting-Resources/ESMO-2017-Cong…

“NKTR-214 is the only agent that increases T-cell populations directly”

Not true, there are many TKI combinations that increase T-cell populations and I have heard of others that are not tki’s too. I am not going to point out every one of them, but will provide 1 link below to demonstrate this effect in 1 drug I have followed

http://ascopubs.org/doi/abs/10.1200/JCO.2016.34.15_suppl.109… ----- From baseline to day 64, there were significant increases in the number of circulating CD3+ cells and CD8+ T cells, and decreases in CD14+ monocytes (all p < 0.05) at all time-points. There was a trend for increase in CD4+ cells (p = 0.08) and CD56+ NK cells

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Nice comparison made by JQ

JQ
?
https://twitter.com/jq1234t/status/996936477979312133

More
$NKTR-214 vs Epacadostat in combination with Nivolumab in treatment naive advanced melanoma PIVOT vs ECHO-204 comparisons:

ORR=52% (12/23) vs 65% (26/40)
ORR=59% (5/9) vs 75% (9/12) in PD-L1+
ORR=44% (4/9) vs 56% (9/16) in PD-L1-

http://abstracts.asco.org/214/AbstView_214_217651.html

Hmmm Epacadostat was basically a placebo. Nuff said

deepening responses are from nivo alone imho not unusual for monotherapy nivo responses to deepen over time.

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Hmmm Epacadostat was basically a placebo. Nuff said

I’m a well known NKTR bear (and less well known coronary CT bear!), but you can not make statements like this off such a fragile study.

The fragility index looks at how many more patients you would need to have outcome B rather than outcome A in order to change from a positive to negative study. A higher fragility index, the better the data.

One can imagine that with small sample sizes, the study is quite fragile, and hence less likely to stand the test of time.

I leave with this on CTCA:
http://www.emlitofnote.com/?p=4215

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Someone is buying NKTR. It’s up almost 6.50 from the downgrade last week. The price action was a tell at least for the short term. Risk reward was good at that time. So far return is 2xs my risk.

Rob

"I’m a well known NKTR bear (and less well known coronary CT bear!), but you can not make statements like this off such a fragile study.

The fragility index looks at how many more patients you would need to have outcome B rather than outcome A in order to change from a positive to negative study. A higher fragility index, the better the data."

I haven’t declared 214 a placebo yet. Just demonstrating how small n data of
Epacadostat (which ended up being placebo) was actually better data than 214. Just pointing out that data is not conclusive that 214 adds anything. Nktr has become a cult stock and talking like one would take 214 to prevent cancer tells you how scary people believe in 214 despite real patient clinic data that raises more questions than answers.

The real test will be whether 214 can demonstrate activity in i/o refractory populations. Funny how the company only presents low n in frontline populations where anyone can make their data look good. In biotech it isn’t what is said that investors need to look out for, it is what has not been said or presented.

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Friends,

The problem here is that we have two people––Cosmid and Jack––who really seem like they know what they’re talking about, but one of them is saying the other doesn’t know as much as they claim.

So unless you’re also one of the folks who can make sense out of complicated oncology data, you’re stuck with what is essentially a trust issue: baby, who do you trust?

I think we’re all here to help each other, that’s one. But the other side of things is speaking up when a correction or interpretation of data is inaccurate.

I don’t see either Jack or Cosmid writing out of mean-spiritedness, though Cosmid’s post was quite sharp around the edges.

That still leaves us with this problem: Jack is saying things look really good, based on the data; Cosmid is saying things aren’t as rosy as Jack says, according to the data.

For those of us that took a deep look into NKTR and have opened positions, and continue to have piles of bananas on the line, it’s essential for us to get clear about what the truth here is, to as certain degree as there exists.

Jack: Monkey sends you a deep sense of gratitude for your posts above; would you be good enough to reply to Cosmid’s concerns for the benefit of the rest of us?

Love,

Monkey (long NKTR)

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baby, who do you trust?


I don’t trust speculative biotechs…baby.

Looks like even I have been talking about stocks that will cure cancer here on the Fool going back 18 years. I liked/like Illumina for the picks n shovels type of play here. Which is why I was sort of interested in CRSP and EDIT. But I also fell for the Celera (CRA!) craze back in the day. They were like the pre-Illumina for me.

The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same in biotech:
http://discussion.fool.com/nobodys-commented-on-this-one-sd-i-do…
http://discussion.fool.com/questions-for-dr-venter-given-the-inc…

I would feel more nostalgic about some of these older posts, if it wasn’t also so sad.

Dreamer

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Regardless who is right or wrong and my discipline learnt here from following your gut instincts and never looking back I offloaded 4%(now completely out) the other day at $53.00 and change and used the funds to increase my Pvtl allocation to 8%. This was before earnings and although one of the few times I have had a big increase the next day, looking ahead with Pvtl. Originally brought roughly the same time as Saul at 19.01 Too many “ifs” for me with Nktr and if I am wrong and the rest are right, then good for you. I hope this is the “One” for you. Used to worry about…“oh why did I do that” and “Look at the price now”(sound familiar?) not anymore. What will be will be.

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Chris,

Your point is well taken, I can see that it might be taken as being heavy-handed, so if I offended Jack…the person, I apologize.

But the issue of advanced degrees is irrelevant to me. If the scientific claims made were sound, I would have never commented on the post at all, regardless of education. Neither would I have commented if they were made by someone who made it clear that they had no college education at all and lacked knowledge of the field of IO. College degrees (or lack thereof) are meaningless to me if the science is right.

I think this case is different. We have a physician who makes scientific statements that IMO, are wildly inaccurate, but yet states, in essence, that NKTRs science is within his area of expertise. Maybe I am in a minority, but that is what wheelhouse means to me. People trust physicians, especially those who claim to be experts on the subject matter.

I think this board is incredibly powerful, and there is likely a silent majority who hang on every word that a few posters make. I would venture a guess that some read Sauls monthly summaries and read little else and buy because they are “Saul stocks”. And this despite Saul’s constant reminder that they shouldn’t do so. We also have people like you who support NKTR yet do so thoughtfully, make sound arguments, and without claiming they are experts. It is pretty clear, at least to me, that your background provides you the basis for your understanding NKTRs science. And for me your words speak more to this than your degree. We might differ about our conclusions, but I don’t think I have ever heard you propose anything so outlandish as getting injections of 214 to protect yourself from cancers you don’t know you have. Pardon me for being so blunt, but I find this idea to be scary on a variety of levels.

But what I have witnessed here lately are people doubling down on the stock, despite the recent debacle. With real money. And they may be doing so based upon some outlandish interpretations of NKTRs science made by a physician who claims that this is in his wheelhouse. So the intention of my post was to warn these people by presenting a contrasting scientific viewpoint, that Jack, or anyone else can counter. I have a sense of obligation to do so, because there is nothing I can contribute to the board otherwise, and I have benefitted greatly from insights into tech stocks and finance. You don’t see me post on these because I know that I am incompetent to do so, and it would be obvious to the more sophisticated that I was deficient. A man has to know his limitations. I think I do, so I limit my comments to things that are in my wheelhouse. Science, immunology, and biotech.

So yeah, from a personal side, if I offended Jack, I apologize. But if I have to choose between offending an internet persona and providing a view that might add caution to multiple people who might be considered vulnerable, I will side with those who are risking their hard-earned money.

Every time.

Cosmid

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I see both sides Cosmid and greatly respect your answer. Imo, justifiable from the point of some possibly losing money on an “unknown”. We have all been there before.

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People trust physicians, especially those who claim to be experts on the subject matter.

they do?

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In biotech it isn’t what is said that investors need to look out for, it is what has not been said or presented.

Excellent point Chris; very insightful. Along these lines, I can find one peer-reviewed publication on 214. A nice mouse study in CCR. The data that we are relying on are largely limited to abstracts presented at scientific meetings. Many might not realize that acceptance of abstracts is not usually based on rigorous peer review. The abstract review groups largely judge based upon suitability for the meeting and the feasibility that the findings could be obtained. These contain very limited information on how the data were obtained. I’m not singling out NKTR; this is very common with biotech and one of the reasons they are extremely difficult to evaluate.

Cosmid

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First of all, I want to thank Chris (cosmid) for his concern. I am a newbie here and in the process (after drinking a pitcher of Kool-Aid) of moving my portfolio towards the template that is popular here. I have been guilty of using “Saul type” when describing the stock discussed here (an error I will try to avoid in the future).

I also (as stated here) increased my stake in Nektar on the day my position tanked (and the combined position is still 19% underwater). So what level of insanity (or hopefully inspiration) caused me to toss another chip on the table? Nothing. While I come burdened with a number of field in which I can claim to be an expert, evaluating the data (or lack thereof) of Nektar is beyond my high school chemistry and dissection of frogs. So either I stick to the small corner of the equity market whose technologies I’m familiar with, or I listen to the explanations of others (sometimes sitting at their feet with eyes glazed over). With the jury still out, it does indeed boil down to a gamble no different than any other.

While I opted (at least so far) to toss more money on the table - either to be absorbed by or rewarded by the market gods), I do seriously appreciate the effort to point out that there is a counter argument (maybe a compelling one) that my actions border on insanity. Hopefully this is a case where I can smile with glee about another near-miss, rather than collect yet another scar indicating a lesson learned (until the next time I ignore it).

Thank you to all for your explanations and for presenting both sides.

Jeff
(Still long Nektar, but can’t explain why)

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