So that people won’t follow me into things I’m out of, I will, this time only, clarify where I am.
I’m down to 10 positions, and expect to stay there. No try-out positions:
**Twilio 21.6**
**Zscaler 17.9**
**Alteryx 16.2**
**Trade Desk 12.1**
**Okta 10.1**
**Gardant 8.1**
**Square 4.6**
**Smartsheet 4.5**
**Mongo 2.5**
**Elastic 2.5**
Yes, all the big positions are still there.
Yes, Gardant has grown a bunch from when I bought at $70 and in the $80’s.
Yes, I still have Smartsheet, and it’s up from my purchase price.
Yes, I talked myself into going back into Mongo and not selling completely out of Elastic.
Yes, I got out of all the rest of the little tryout slower growers, like Docusign (disappointed at earnings report, will stay a slower grower forever, in my opinion, no acceleration)
Yes, I looked at TEUM and after reading the Conference call I have to guess that anyone on our board that is still considering it hasn’t read that Conference call. It sounds like all that wonderful backlog and extra revenue growth they are talking about is all from their two acquisitions, and they don’t really have anything special themselves. they sound like a roll-up and the conference call sounded to me like a naive attempt to pump the stock. But what do I know…
Saul
98 Likes
Do you exit NTNX? What’s the reason?
Hi, Saul-
Has your thesis on ESTC changed recently? I thought it’s on your final list of 6 tickers. Maybe I missed one of your posts. ESTC and OKTA are the two tickers I have less confidence than the other 4. I will give MDB a 6 star now I have seen its recent ER.
For GH, I finally took a position this morning at ~$100 a share, and I am already up 5%.
Another ticker I am interested in is TNDM, Tandem Diabetes Care. I listened to their conference call and I am convinced by its story. I am curious whether you had a chance you check it out.
Thanks!
Cove, do a quick search, Saul and others discussed NTNX widely.
Did you exit NTNX? What’s the reason?
Of course I exited Nutanix! It should be evident by now that holding shipwrecks in the hope that they will turn around is not my style.
Saul
20 Likes
1–I still am gambling on Enphase. They are in the black now and have superior product and followers.
2–It is rumored that Elastic has 75% of it’s stock locked up.
Here is one of the points someone is making over on another MF board:
why so much stock lock up release? 75% of the shared locked up are coming to the float April 2-3rd?..that whole blackout restriction is confusing as to when those shares actually get released…must be 3 days post blackout.
and, my question with an answer by duma:
Could this be the “elephant in the room”?
Has this affected the value of a stock in other similar examples?
Yes it will and likely already has affected the share price…and those are a lot of shares unlocking.
The timing is still not exactly clear to me…we had the April 2nd time listed when the remaining 75% of shares would be technically released but we also have the quiet period issue beginning 4 weeks before wherein these stocks cannot be sold until 3 days after the end of the financial quarter…but is that 3 days after earnings announcement or 3 days after the quarter ended?
The next fiscal quarter ends April 30 (within that quiet period) so the previously estimated date would be pushed back to May 3rd based on this quiet period but before the earnings announcement in early June or after earnings? That is quite a time spread and I do expect decay in stock price leading into that release of how may shares again?? 21 million shares (not sure of the exact number…anyone know)?
If that number is being unlocked in the next 1-2 months, hard to see how this stock goes anywhere until well after then…160K average volume traded vs the amount of stock released.
So, I’m thinking I have plenty of time to buy back into Elastic.
Saul,
Question…Is this the most concentrated that you have been in on stocks? I seem to recall you always have some try out stocks which are low single digit allocations. While the last 5 tickers are not “try-outs” per say they are try-out sized and your top 3 is over 50% of your portfolio. The last 5 would have little impact - are they representing the size you want them to be at?
Ronald
2 Likes
Question…Is this the most concentrated that you have been in on stocks? I seem to recall you always have some try out stocks which are low single digit allocations. While the last 5 tickers are not “try-outs” per say they are try-out sized and your top 3 is over 50% of your portfolio. The last 5 would have little impact - are they representing the size you want them to be at?
Hi Ronald, You must be fairly new on the board. Ten positions is where I want usually try to be, and a tryout position for me is usually under 1.0%, occasionally under 1.5%. As far as saying that positions of 8.1% and 4.5%, etc are “try-out sized,” you are simply wrong.
Saul
4 Likes
“Shipwreck”?? That is perhaps a bit harsh…”Listing in the wind”, for sure. Perhaps even a broken rudder. “Shipwreck”, though would imply there is no recovery possible and they are sitting at the bottom of the ocean. NTNX is definitely stuck for awhile, but still has amazing tech, a great story, and phenomenal future potential…they are down, but not out. While I too reduced my position from 8% to 2% of my portfolio, I think we could be pleasantly surprised in 12 months… if they are able to get their sales/sails 
back in the wind, they could resume their growth and retest their highs. But no sense waiting around in the middle of the ocean when there are a LOT of really fast ships around to jump on in the mean time! I will definitely continue to watch this ship though when/if they get it going again. They will survive to race another day…
3 Likes
NTNX is definitely stuck for awhile, but still has amazing tech, a great story, and phenomenal future potential…they are down, but not out.
NTNX is up about 31% on my calls since my mention that I felt NTNX has been somewhat “derisked” by their most recent earnings. The trend has been up the last 9 days into NTNX Investor’s Day (March 20th) where there is hopefully more clarity on it’s path forward.
Rob
1 Like