I’m new here… so point me to the right posts… I’m having trouble finding them.
My basic question is why is MDB a Saul Stock? Negative EPS… recent IPO… seems like this breaks the criteria you established in the Knowledgebase Questions. Obviously, you are the Master. I’m just trying to learn… why this one?
If you’ve previously discussed this… just send me to the posts. There are SO many posts on this board… a VERY good thing.
Thanks much,
Mark
From Saul’s March summary:
http://discussion.fool.com/my-portfolio-at-the-end-of-mar-2018-3…
March: As I have described at length, I decided to take a full (but not oversized) position back in Nektar, and also took a much smaller position in MongoDB. To raise money to buy them I trimmed some Hubspot, which just ignored me and kept moving up, and some Talend, and I trimmed quite a bit of Nvidia. (Remember that I have no new money coming in and when I want to buy something I have to sell something). Then when the market collapsed (and especially Nvidia after a great investor conference, and Shopify, after another short attack), I sold the rest of my Hubspot, and the rest of my Talend, and about half of the Mongo that I had bought, and added especially to Nividia, and also to Shopify, Nutanix, Twilio, and Nektar. I don’t understand the ins and outs of the technolgy of Nvidia like some of you, but I could listen to the presentations management made, and hear the enthusiasm and confidence, and the almost euphoria that they are feeling. I bought back a lot of the Nvidia that I had reduced earlier in the month…
MongoDB I just bought two weeks ago at about $38.00, and I sold half of what I had bought at a price of about $43.40 during the last couple of days, to raise cash to buy more Nvidia.
I don’t particularly recall much of anything else from Saul on MongoDB.
The company has been discussed extensively on the NPI board.
I think many of us are in a wait and see approach with MongoDB. I have a very small position. I like how they are positioning themselves and am excited about their Atlas option which is basically a managed database. I think they understand that if they can make databases very very easy for people that they lock them in. The other options out there can be pretty difficult to set up although they all work pretty well. Having said that, there is a lot of competition out there and they are very much a work in progress. Hence my small position.
-ethan
Thanks… I read that… and that is what queued my question. I’m researching… reading… the company just didn’t sound like it “fit” the style I read about in the Knowledge-base stuff. It must be a fine company… after all… he picked it… but I’m just wondering what was it about this company that caused the break from tradition. More than likely, I’m not understanding something.
I’m just starting to read through the companies and learn about them all.
Also… I just added NPI to my boards list… now a few thousand more posts to catch up on!!
Thanks
Mark
Mark,
The Knowledge-base is compiled from a collection posts from years past. You might think of it as an old testament in a way. You know the method. But as Saul has written, somewhere, the method used to require gathering information from written sources, weeks or months stale. Company data has become democratized, readily available from the internet. And, the method and the 1-year PEG has become fairly well known. The gems are easier to find but cannot remain gems too long.
Other factors are the combination of long bull market, a technology revolution involving big data, the public cloud, and software as a service, subscription income (deferred) among others. This has lead to investing in companies with rapidly growing revenue (as in 1yrPEG) but no net income in most cases. For lengthy periods of time the market has been in risk-on mode, so even companies with actual earnings sport p/e’s beyond growth rates.
It is not just MDB. Maybe someone will develop a 1yrPSG metric or add back the incremental increase in deferred income for 1yrPEG. But even that won’t work for land and expand companies. I wonder if (doubt that) Saul is graphing data on his current holdings.
I haven’t read the Knowledge-base recently, so not sure if there is a section on this, but Saul has discussed it–buried in a very active board. Maybe we need a new testament section.
KC
I’m relatively new here, too. I don’t mean to speak out of turn, as I’ve offered no in-depth analysis or pithy comments yet.
You should read what the folks on Saul’s board post, including Saul himself. You (me) should probably read all that stuff twice, then do the math for yourself, twice.
If you’re comfortable with the math (stock and company analysis), dive in. It’s on you.
For me, I’ll never be as smart as these folks on the analysis, or as nimble in my positions. What I love is the depth of analysis, and the commitment to certain companies and technologies.
For me, again, I’m opening my mind to the AI and cloud eventuality. I’ve read science fiction for a very long time, and ~half of what that crew predicts has come true. Heinlein predicted a moon landing well before it happened (foil hats aside). I’m investing in the next half century – AI, cloud, bionics, the inevitable gestalt and singularity.
I’ve downloaded the Knowledge Base for my own reading, only a couple times through. My goal is to fully index the document and repost to share with Saul, though he’s unlikely to care, and to share the folks here. As a former teacher, trainer I know well – if you can’t explain it you likely don’t understand it.
As always, YMMV. Keep learning.
-kiplin
Thanks much for the reply. For the “new guy” trying to catch up… that helped a bunch. A New Testament update to the Knowledge Base would be very helpful. Good news is that you confirmed I “read it right” and I’m understanding.
Looking forward to learning.
Mark