Taking a beating today

Dan,

CAGR (Time is “ANNUALIZED”!)

Yes, I realize that, that’s why I asked over what time period you were claiming portfolios with an average 160+% CAGR, I was assuming you were saying that was over a period of multiple years, not weeks/months.

Of course it makes sense now, realizing the portfolio you posted had over 50% of the purchases made in May 2017, only weeks old, so as you point out, any increase turns into a phenomenal CAGR.

My misunderstanding…

Hi foodles,

Yes, I rebuilt all ports starting around February of this year. Even if I hadn’t rebuilt, I “reset” CAGR for each year although I track it overall too, clear back from day 1 of my investing. You’ll be happy(?) to know, this year’s CAGR is a lot lower now! :slight_smile:

Holding all these fast-growing disruptive companies, I feel like I’m riding a rocket fueled by gun powder, and I’m constantly looking for input from others on a similar ride about how they are handling the risk. That’s the reason I’ve referred to CAGR so often lately. It’s not about bragging, believe me, more like the opposite in fact. It’s about “Whoa, this is way too fast! Now what?”

When stock price rises too fast, there’s bound to be pain coming in the future, and that’s about all that a very short-term CAGR can tell us (except whether we’re going in the right direction.) But the pain is usually short-lived. Usually. So we really needed the sector to retreat here, but for my taste, that’s enough for awhile, ha.

Dan

You’re right, Aquila, something went wrong in the calcs somewhere, way wrong. It’s actually only 22,814% and the one-day gain would have to be 2.55555% just to have a CAGR of 1,000,000%. So my points are likely lost, and those were meant to be that 1) it does happen fairly often, 2) compounding is a powerful force and 3) while it may be fun or interesting, it’s pretty much meaningless. Also it can sure mess up formatting in a spreadsheet. :slight_smile:

Dan