Wow - Falling knives or buying opp

The carnage in our stocks today is incredible. Of course no one can know where this will end but values seem compelling. Will possibly need to take a little nibble at all my names.




Brutal day. Alot of the stocks that are on this board doubled/tripled within a year. Don’t you think it could go down to those previous levels?

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For the last couple of months I’ve come to realize more and more clearly that not only am I not going to double my money this year, I’m going to miss my more realistic target of 65% gains.

Today I’m hoping to get out with my capital and my shirt. :slight_smile:



Nothing like losing 70% of your year to date gain in one day. Ouch!

No one knows the answer to that, just as know one knew that they would make the incredible gains they have made this year.
They could easily go down another 50%.
Either way you should only invest in the names that you believe in.
You like a company selling off, then you should like it more at cheaper prices.
You don’t like the company then you shouldn’t own it. It’s that simple.
Buying some of these names for the first time today. Have no idea if it’s a bottom, and willing to add if they continue down.
TTD a perfect example. Love the research on Sauls board and have wanted to own for a few months now. So it’s a no brainer for me to start building a position now.
Doesn’t mean this will turn out well for me, but managing the risk in my investments, I see that it’s time to take the risk on TTD.



I wrote this to myself since I am down 10% currently wiping out all of November’s recovery! Wanted to share so we have something to read just in case you have that feeling …

Incredible volatility since September, it has been a real roller-coaster. Is this another panic attack, the start of a recession or more machine trading? Looks like it is turning to an official correction from Index peaks.

What has changed?

The perfect storm of these headwinds at once:

Tariff Wars
Concern about Fed tightening
Chinese & emerging markets weakening economy
Eurozone issue and Brexit
Oil prices
An aging bull

Our companies are still growing aggressively. The US economy is in a period of stable inflation, excellent job creation, FED raising rates, and a government tax cut that is less than a year old. Perhaps we’ll have to get use to this volatility, but I believe this too should pass. Like Saul said, a recession could have started already, but I do not think the stars are aligned for that yet. Yes, we have to be able to stomach this kind of volatility for eventual great returns.

Good Luck All.


Yikes is right! I thought things would be quiet today, and I can’t find any news that would explain it.

Mr. Market must have changed his meds, or stopped taking them…


Our companies are still growing aggressively. The US economy is in a period of stable inflation, excellent job creation, FED raising rates,

That is generally what it looks like a few quarters before a recession begins.

…and a government tax cut that is less than a year old.

The tax cut appears to have done nothing to increase business investment, and the positive effect that the increased government deficit spending has aggregate demand will run out in late 2019.…


This sell off has become somewhat out of control as fund managers now have to save face and raise cash in order to look like they are doing something. Saving face is the main cause now, which will build onto itself as more and more will panic sell. Let them. It will always come back at some point.

As for when to buy. Be patient. I’ve been buying, but now I’m setting really low prices on my limit orders.

Take SQ for instance. Great company but still pretty richly valued, and in a market like this I can see SQ going down to the 46/48 level in a matter of s few trading days. So I’ll wait, pick my spots.

Best of luck, and be patient.