Well, we’ve got our 10% correction in the Dow, been a while coming.
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Well, we’ve got our 10% correction in the Dow, been a while coming.
What makes you think it’s gonna stop at 10%?
2008: 56.8%
2000: 49.1%
1987: 33.1%
1981: 27.1%
1973: 48.2%
1969: 38.1%
1966: 22.2%
1961: 26.4%
1957: 20.7%
1948: 20.6%
1946: 26.6%
1941: 34.5%
1940: 31.9%
1939: 26.2%
1937: 54.5%
“Averages” don’t mean anything. Sometimes the bear lasts a year or more, sometimes it’s over in a month; you never know until you know. Given that the world is different now with robots chasing robots for the majority of the volume, we really don’t know what lies in store.
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we really don’t know what lies in store.
Correct. No one knows where markets go in the short-term or intermediate term. No one. Anybody who claims to know does not know. Don’t listen to them and decide for yourself.
Chris
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Goofy,
Me:
Well, we’ve got our 10% correction in the Dow, been a while coming.
You:
What makes you think it’s gonna stop at 10%?
Don’t think I said it was…just pointed out the fact that it happened for the first time in a while.
I’m not predicting it will go up or down from here, or for how long, or by how much. I realize nobody can reliably predict any of that, so I don’t listen to people that claim to know. But whatever it does, I’ll continue doing what I’ve been doing, staying invested in what I feel are great companies that hopefully give me great returns.
What more can we do?
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I’ll be bold and make a prediction: The downward will continue until all of the craziness has been squeezed out of the sponge – margin buying of XIV options, community Bitcoin “investing” clubs, and people thinking that +2% every day, for almost every stock they own, is normal.
Until then, like foodles… just honing my watchlist and keeping an eye out for opportunities to buy (more of) good companies with solid management and a moat or three around them. This, too, shall pass. Eventually.
(But seriously, I don’t think we’ve found bottom yet.)
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foodles >>> Well, we’ve got our 10% correction in the Dow, been a while coming.
Goofyhoofy>> What makes you think it’s gonna stop at 10%?
foodles> Don’t think I said it was…just pointed out the fact that it happened for the first time in a while.
I don’t think anyone calls the first 10% of a crash a correction.
Calling it a correction indicates that it was just a correction, and the market now has the correct valuation, and will resume it’s former path.
So yes, by calling the 10% drop a correction, you indicated the future path.
In my mind, I just replace “correction” with “opportunity.”
A.J.
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foodles>>>> Well, we’ve got our 10% correction in the Dow, been a while coming.
Goofyhoofy>>> What makes you think it’s gonna stop at 10%?
foodles>> Don’t think I said it was…just pointed out the fact that it happened for the first time in a while.
hrse> I don’t think anyone calls the first 10% of a crash a correction.
hrse> Calling it a correction indicates that it was just a correction, and the market now has the correct valuation, and will resume it’s former path.
hrse> So yes, by calling the 10% drop a correction, you indicated the future path.
Sorry hrse, disagree with you 100%. You, and Goofy, are putting words in my mouth, that I didn’t say.
As I said, I’m not predicting anything, just stating that we have currently hit the defined correction level in the Dow, there’s no other way to say it, as that is what has happened to this point. If it continues and gets down to 20%, and I notice, I will probably state that we’ve hit bear market territory.
Sorry to add another post to this, it will be my last, even if others also feel the need to make assumptions and put words in my mouth.
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In my mind, I just replace “correction” with “opportunity.”
second that…
just freed up some buying power and cash.
watchlist ready, waiting for the slight lump in the throat, a little gag maybe…
short list
ANET
HUBS
TLND
cheers
Nick
What makes you think it’s gonna stop at 10%?
Because we’re not heading into a recession, and there has been no black swan or other event to trigger a bear market?
Not saying it’s gonna stop at 10%, but those would be solid reasons for it to stop. The market crashes in your list happened for a reasons that do not apply to today’s market.
We have had too little volatility for too long, it’s not normal. So the recent drop is a return to normalcy.
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Great graphic perspective of Bear vs. bull market % increases, decreases, durations and frequencies.
Go down a page or two to just below the heading “Bear markets generally occur every four to six years”
https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/vola…
I’m not referencing any other part of the article other than the graphic.
sjo
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foodles>>>> Well, we’ve got our 10% correction in the Dow, been a while coming.
others>>> not a correction (yet)
foodles> As I said, I’m not predicting anything, just stating that we have currently hit the defined correction level in the Dow,
I agree with the later, not the former.
Great graphic perspective of Bear vs. bull market % increases, decreases, durations and frequencies.
Hi sjo,
That’s a nice feel good graphic, but it needs to be on a proportional scale. What I mean is that a 50% drop needs to be the same size as a 100% rise (because a 100% rise followed or preceded by a 50% drop gets you back to where you started), a 33% drop needs to be the same size as a 50% rise for the same reason, etc. Think of it this way, if you ever had an 80% drop, you’d need a 400% rise to get back to even.
Saul
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Why I don’t bother with percentages. I only use dollars. I need a $10,000 gain to make back a $10,000 loss.
Whether you are in good opportunity stocks or not, losses tend to come quicker than gains. Maybe because fear is a much more powerful emotion than hope or greed. Our pre history hunter gatherer ancestors would not have survived if that was not the case.
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I see it this way, why wouldn’t the market respond to a restoration of sane monetary policy? It has been artificially propped up by the Fed and ~0% rates for roughly 9 years. Once we get that element taken care of along with factoring in the regulatory and tax policies going forward, we will be closer to sanity in the market.
I’m certainly no economics expert so I am always open to the possibility (likelihood) that I’m wrong but just expressing my opinion.
certainly no economics expert
Good. Maybe you will get a lot richer in stock markets than most economists do.
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