I hope that a lot of you have been enjoying the ride with me today with PAYC and TWLO. Stocks often go down no matter how good their results, but not this time for these two.
Saul
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Wish I had bigger positions in both today. Wanted to see 1 more report from each of them. But can honestly say I wouldn’t have invested in either if not for your board. Thanks again Saul!
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Saul, yes I am. Not only for PAYC, but also SHOP, SBNY, and LGIH which is above water and now moving north.?? I don’t invest in a lot of individual stocks but I’m having fun following this board and getting more comfortable investing in them. Of course in this current market, it’s easy to have “fun”.
Enjoying the SKX ride, too, as it was up over 3% for the day and now an additional 10% after hours.
I know it can change, but like you said, enjoying the ride (with almost ALL my stocks today)!
There were lots of SKX holders sometime back. If they are still holding after hours is showing $3 or 13% up.
ps: I am only green in envy 
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Concur: thank you Saul for bringing companies like PAYC and SHOP, which would be missed by my screens, to the board. They are not at all the kind of thing I want to make a habit of, but extraordinary is extraordinary.
On the other hand, I am building a holding in SWKS again too while I have acquired a full holding of AMAT (MS thinks it overvalued but I disagree), increased EW, and increased AKAM on the recent 11% drop. I am hopeful it may drop more.
How pleasant it is when the market’s up, frost is in the air and the sky is blue!
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I bailed on SWK a few months ago, it’s still not back to where I entered. But I did pick up ATVI based on a MF recommendation. Up >18% today! This is a nice ride, but what about that other shoe… gonna drop sometime…when?
Now I don’t see this often, today I have 2 stocks up 20% (SKX and ATVI) and 1 up 30% (INFN). Yes, I still carry many more stocks than advocated here, but I’m slowly working the number down. Even so, seeing three up that much is pretty rare.
Yes, I have 1 down big today (UBNT), it hit 20% down, currently 14%, thinking of adding to it.
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Now I don’t see this often, today I have 2 stocks up 20% (SKX and ATVI) and 1 up 30% (INFN). Yes, I still carry many more stocks than advocated here, but I’m slowly working the number down. Even so, seeing three up that much is pretty rare.
Yes, I have 1 down big today (UBNT), it hit 20% down, currently 14%, thinking of adding to it.
Amazing day indeed! 4 stocks moving 20%+ and 3-to-1 score in your favor.
How many stocks in your portfolio?
#6
I have to say that when I see move like these in individual stocks, up 20 or 30% in a day, or hammered by the same percentages on a bad report, it reminds me of 2000. Crazy wild swings, a bit too much exuberance, bears giving up, smooth sailing ahead.
I’m starting to get that feeling I had back in late 1999 when it like the party room was getting way overcrowded and the fire alarm was about to ring.
Chris
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I’m starting to get that feeling I had back in late 1999
Chris, In 1999, internet stocks were selling at 200 times SALES!!! And respected analysts were calling them “bargains” because “Comparables are at 400 times”. And a lot of companies that were being bid up huge percentages daily didn’t even have ANY REVENUE yet, only an IDEA for a product.
Just thought I’d remind you what 1999 was really like.
Saul
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And SKX and INFN that just had those big bounces after earnings were stocks that were beaten down, way, way, way, WAY down from their highs, not high flying at all. Even after 20% rises they were still way, way down from where they had been. That’s not 1999 either.
Just sayin…
Saul
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Agreed Saul, I was living in northern Cal during the boom and the bust so I know it well.
Yes it’s a very different landscape, why I said that “I’m starting to feel”.
We have gone for a very very long time without a meaningful correction.
When I see bears give up and go bullish I start to worry.
I’ll really get defensive though when I hear people around me that have never invested start to talk about getting in. I have not yet heard those conversations and might never hear them again
as many folks were burned so badly in the last recession.
Still, we are way overdue for a correction, one that actually would be very healthy for the market longer term.
Chris
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Hi Chris.
“Still, we are way overdue for a correction, one that actually would be very healthy for the market longer term.”
It hasn’t been that long…
July 20-Aug 25, 2015: the S&P 500 was down 12.25%.
Nov 3, 2015-Feb 11, 2016: the S&P 500 was down 13.31%.
Those don’t qualify as bear markets (usually a 20% decline). But they do meet the normal definition of “correction”.
To be honest, I don’t have the greatest feeling about this market either. But then again, they say that the market climbs a wall of worry…
Thanks and best wishes,
TMFDatabaseBob
See my holdings here: http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFDatabasebob/info.aspx
Peace on Earth
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My portfolio took a tumble in Jan/Feb of last year, probably more than the general market, but now it’s doing better than the market. I agree with Saul that this anything like the Dot Com boom, where people were saying “it’s different this time” and meaning it. No-one’s saying that now, and everyone’s worried about the future generally - they just like some/many individual stocks.
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statistically speaking, over the last 100 years, we have seen an average of two bear markets (20%+ corrections) every decade, with one of those corrections exceeding 30%.
that had not happened in 8 years. i am counting from the bottom of march 2009.
on the other hand, over the last 17 years, the market only rose 4.6% annually (on average.) that is way below historical average of 9.5% annual gain.
we have a lot of ground to cover (up) to revert to the mean.
#6
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on the other hand, over the last 17 years, the market only rose 4.6% annually (on average.) that is way below historical average of 9.5% annual gain.
we have a lot of ground to cover (up) to revert to the mean
When adjusted for historically low interest rates the 4.6% return since 2000 seems about right. I think the returns during the next few years will be challenging during the Fed tightening but should be much closer to the 9.5% or better after that.
Hodges
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Another great way to see the difference between now and the tech wreck of 2000. It clearly shows we have a long way to go before we hit that irrational exuberance.
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“Those don’t qualify as bear markets (usually a 20% decline). But they do meet the normal definition of “correction”.”
Right you are Bob. I didn’t want to use the term “bear”, but again you are correct.
Both the corrections you mention above I would so hoping that they would continue to that 20% range, but the market was not participating.
So here we are into a record bull market in much need of a substantial(bear) correction In my humble opinion. Doesn’t mean that much looking out 10 years, it still can scare the bejesus
out of the most seasoned investor, especially if you are overexposed to the wrong sector(s).
Chris
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So here we are into a record bull market in much need of a substantial(bear) correction In my humble opinion. Doesn’t mean that much looking out 10 years, it still can scare the bejesus
out of the most seasoned investor, especially if you are overexposed to the wrong sector(s).
How does one know what “the wrong sector” is, until after it happens. Any by the time it happens it should be at or near the bottom, and be ready to buy again. There is only 24 hours a day and it could be counterproductive to be worrying all the time waiting for the next correction which might not happen for another 8 to 10 years or longer.
b&w
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