$10 trillion for 4% renewables

The Paris-based International Energy Agency forecast last year that peak oil, gas and coal demand would come in 2030. Nasser said demand is unlikely to peak anytime soon, let alone by that year. Nasser suggested that the IEA is focusing on demand in the U.S. and Europe and needs to focus on the developing world as well…

Nasser said alternative energy sources have been unable to displace hydrocarbons at scale, despite the world investing more than $9.5 trillion over the past two decades. Wind and solar currently supply less than 4% of the world’s energy…

Meanwhile, the share of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix has barely fallen in the 21st century from 83% to 80%, Nasser said. Global demand has increased by 100 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the same period and will reach an all-time high this year, the CEO said…

The CEO said efficiency improvements alone over the past 15 years have reduced global energy demand by almost 90 million barrels per day oil equivalent. Wind and solar, meanwhile, have substituted only 15 million barrels over the same period, he said.

DB2

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Good to hear from someone independent like the Saudi Aramco CEO who doesn’t have a dog in the fight.

Wind and solar are in their infancy.

We need to fight this war on ALL fronts.

The Earth doesn’t need mankind as much as mankind needs Earth.

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Everybody has a dog in the fight. It is important to be reality based whatever your dog is.

Four materials rank highest on the scale of necessity, forming what I have called the four pillars of modern civilization: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia are needed in larger quantities than are other essential inputs. The world now produces annually about 4.5 billion tons of cement, 1.8 billion tons of steel, nearly 400 million tons of plastics, and 180 million tons of ammonia.

But it is ammonia that deserves the top position as our most important material: its synthesis is the basis of all nitrogen fertilizers, and without their applications it would be impossible to feed, at current levels, nearly half of today’s nearly 8 billion people.

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Sounds like $10 trillion hasn’t been nearly enough.

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Very impressive source.

You could start quoting Hitler or Stalin next to economic progress. Of course, Hitler and Stalin did less damage than XOM.

Is Aramco saying they’d like to double the figure spent on renewables?

Ain’t that the truth. A couple of years ago McKinsey consulting estimated a cost of over $9 trillion a year to get to net zero.

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One who is very familiar with fossil fuel needs and uses. As he and others have noted, the percentage of renewables of total energy consumed has changed very slowly.

He has a good point about the developing world. Nigeria alone is projected to have 150 million more people in 25 years. With economic growth the country is going to be using a lot more fossil fuel.

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Aramco’s cost of revenues $665 billion.

The average solar business profit margin is 20%-25%. Solar power plants have low operating costs, and their profit margin is high, making them a lucrative business venture.Sep 23, 2023

How much profit does wind energy make?

So how much can wind turbines make? Wind turbines can make between $3000–$10,000 or more per year depending on the size and kilowatt capacity of the turbine. Farmers on wind farms can maintain their own electricity production and guarantee a lower price for at least 20 years.Nov 10, 2020

Why is that idiot talking costs of renewables without the profit margins?

I would love for my family’s nepotism to set me up in charge of a larger oil company. I would get a half behinded MBA from Harvard if Daddy put a wing on the business school.

On the other hand, China is projected to lose about that many people in the same time span. Currently, China uses way, way more energy per capita than Nigeria.

Nasser pointed out something pretty interesting: over the past 15 years, we’ve gotten a lot better at using energy more efficiently. This has cut down the amount of energy we need by about 90 million barrels of oil every day, which is huge

Is he right though? 90 seems high.

Production data including these other liquids is usually referred to as “Total Liquids Production”, “Petroleum & Other Liquids”, etc. Under this definition (crude and condensate), total world oil production in 2022 averaged 80,618,895 barrels per day .

The Saudis seem to play fast and loose with money.

You’re right that he didn’t mention profit margins. He only pointed out that after spending some $10 trillion (CapEx, I assume) the renewable percentage barely budged. If you assume renewables will rapidly take over world energy production you will be grossly off in your planning.

Nigeria was just an example of a country in the developing world. World population is projected to be about 10 billion in the '50s, a 25% increase. Since the increase will be in the developing world, their energy needs will also be ‘developing’. The EIA estimates a 50% increase in global energy consumption, almost all of it in non-OECD countries.

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And let’s hear what Smith and Wesson thinks about gun control. I am sure it will be as fair and balanced.

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Did he say that? I doubt it. It was not 4% in the beginning. That is what you are implying. It is now 4%.

Potential

Did did say that “Meanwhile, the share of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix has barely fallen in the 21st century from 83% to 80%, Nasser said.”

From another source:

                 2002    2022
Hydrocarbons     85.3%   85.4%
Everything else  14.7%   14.6%

Everything else: Wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, biomass, other

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Renewables have risen while coal and nuclear have dipped.

Solar in 2022 was 4.5% of world electrical generation
Wind in 2022 was 7.2% of world electrical generation

The $9.5 trillion includes much more than just wind and solar.

The most commonly used alternative sources of energy include the following:

  • Wind Energy.
  • Solar Energy.
  • Geothermal Energy.
  • Bioenergy.
  • Hydroelectric Energy.
  • Hydrogen Energy.
  • Nuclear Energy.
  • Tidal Energy.

And, as you know, energy is used for a lot of things other than producing electricity.

DB2

India will be world’s biggest oil demand growth driver through 2030, IEA says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-be-largest-global-oil-demand-growth-driver-through-2030-iea-2024-02-07/
The world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer is on track to post an oil demand increase of almost 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) between 2023 and 2030, accounting for more than one-third of the projected 3.2 million bpd of global increases in the period, the IEA said in a report released at the India Energy Week in Goa…

To meet this demand, India is expected to add 1 million bpd of new refining capacity over the seven-year period and this will increase its crude imports further to 5.8 million bpd by 2030, the IEA said.

“India is moving to the right path in terms of adding large additional refining capacities,” Prasad Panicker, chairman of Indian refiner Nayara Energy, said at the conference. He added that Indian gasoline demand will not peak for “at least the next 20-25 years”.

G Krishnakumar, the chairman of state run refiner Bharat Petroleum Corp, said that petrochemical demand for the company will also be a factor in India’s oil consumption increase, as demand growth for petrochemicals is “directly proportional to the gross domestic product of the country.”

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