100 Ideas

First off, let’s get this over with … Saul, I know you think searching for rockets is off-topic,
or maybe (evidently?) it’s only when I’m the one searching. So be it. Let’s grow up, okay?

I’ve immersed myself in stock data lately. I’ve looked at hundreds of companies from the
viewpoint of an endless number of price charts and thousands of data points sorted and linked in
ways I’ve never seen before. I’ve sorted them in just about every way that I can think of. Besides
the fact that it’s not the most exciting project I’ve ever undertaken, I learned a few things and
thought I’d share some of the less obvious lessons.

There are factors which can greatly increase the odds of success or failure for a company of
course. Ask Benjamin Graham. On the other side there is no one, two or three factors that I’ve
found which can foretell an investment’s outcome. Ask Tom Gardner. I love Tom, but he can’t
pick a stock to save his butt. Just kidding, Tom. Kinda. There is no holy grail.

In searching for Super Gains, when it comes to price (or companies, actually) it’s okay to
think small. I (mis)used one of my pre-screens by taking every company in my database (8000+)
and list their monthly closing prices and sort them looking for mid- and long-term “super-gains”
different time periods. It amazed me how many companies gain thousands of percent in a year and it
still blows me away at how many gain hundreds of percent. One thing that I’ve kind of known, but has
really become clear to me is that once a company reaches certain plateaus (I didn’t calculate them, but
say, $50, $100, $250 and $1000 just for illustration purposes) the harder and less likely it is
for them to have Super Gains. Yes, it’s a function of mathematics, in that a penny stock can gain
100% much easier than a $100,000 Berkshire stock, but there are other factors there as well. For
example, when a company’s stock reaches $100, we might think twice about ordering a hundred
shares without some serious due diligence (lol, or maybe not) but a $10 stock? 100 shares isn’t
such a big deal, and we might be a little more willing to take somewhat of a gamble on a good
looking company, with perhaps less intensive study. It’s partly a time value thing. How much time
can one spend to invest $1,000.00? It’s not enough to change your life if you lose it all (nor if you
double your investment!) but it’s not an amount that you’d likely tip your paper delivery person at
Christmas either. When it comes to Super Gains, Smaller is easier.

Most Super Gains are stealthy. You likely never heard of them. Part of the reason is the
paragraph above; small prices don’t attract attention and they certainly don’t attract media and
talking heads. Another reason is they aren’t all pretty. In fact, they’re pretty ugly when you put
them up beside a Snapchat, a Shoppify, or even an overpriced GoPro. They are their poor relations
that nobody talks about. And that brings up a big point. Again, without counting, I’d estimate that
of all the companies that gained thousands of percent last year. 85% --probably more—were turnaround
stories. The slower-moving companies that gained merely hundreds of percent in 12 months were more
mixed, but still a high percentage of them were turnarounds. Every year hundreds of public companies
freefall toward bankruptcy. But the closer they get, the more attention they get from employees, their
bankers, their suppliers and service providers like insurance agents, travel providers, credit card holders,
etc., all of which often leads the company to professional interference. Ugly step-siblings or not, it’s a
beautiful thing to watch a company make a comeback. It’s especially beautiful if you’re holding a few
stubs of ownership. Not all Super Gains are pretty. When you move, you don’t hire movers by their
looks unless their butt crack showing all the time offends you. Mostly you want them motivated.
Ugly companies are motivated.

Speaking of pretty vs ugly, many of the companies in the turnaround stories above were once
brokers’ darlings, hyped to the max and then once upon a stumble they were forgotten. Now that
their price is bouncing from the bottom of the crater, and aiming for the stratosphere it might be a
good time to look again.

Anyway, I found a lot of companies to look at. Of those I’m drooling on, most of them have not been
mentioned here that I know of but I don’t read every post here. I hope the time spent studying will
pay off. I think it will, but who knows? Some are pretty shoddy looking, some are in ugly
industries (that means non-tech to you, ha) but you know me. I don’t buy them for their looks.
Show me the money.

I’ll write about some of them soon when I get more time, and right after I buy them. :slight_smile:

My ports are only up 2.7% above the S&P 500 YTD, but a minimum of 46% of my ports (51%
right now) have been in cash, so I’m not disappointed at all. But perhaps you can see why I’ve
spend so much time searching for new rockets.

I learned something else today. I always thought the SEC charged fees based on dollar amount.
I’m used to fees from a few pennies to about $15 ‘cause I’m just a little guy. They hit me for a fee
of 60-some dollars last week when I bought 20-some thousand shares of a little mining stock so I
guess it’s based on the number of shares. Never noticed before. Guess I should have bought a share
of BRK/A at $100 grand and saved some fees*. Huh.

I rated all these companies, purely mechanically (except for charts—they all have good looking
charts. As a reward for reading this far, the top 100 candidates I will study over the next several
days are, in order of best-score-first, as follows:


AXON	Axovant Sciences Ltd.
TTWO	Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
PAM	Pampa Energia S.A.
EIG	Employers Holdings Inc
FORM	FormFactor, Inc.
ITI	Iteris, Inc.
ITW	Illinois Tool Works Inc.
MLP	Maui Land & Pineapple Company, Inc.
MOCO	MOCON, Inc.
SMID	Smith-Midland Corp.
SUBCY	Subsea 7 SA
SUPN	Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
WD	Walker & Dunlop, Inc.
ABR	Arbor Realty Trust
ACIA	Acacia Communications, Inc.
ADBE	Adobe Systems Incorporated
AEIS	Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.
ALGN	Align Technology, Inc.
AMCX	AMC Networks Inc.
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AMZN	[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), Inc.
ANET	Arista Networks, Inc.
ARCO	Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.
BRKS	Brooks Automation, Inc.
BWXT	BWX Technologies, Inc.
CABO	Cable One, Inc.
CCMP	Cabot Microelectronics Corporation
CGNX	Cognex Corporation
CHKP	Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.
COHR	Coherent, Inc.
COTV	Cotiviti Holdings, Inc.
CPRT	Copart, Inc.
CWST	Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
EA	Electronic Arts Inc.
EBSB	Meridian Bancorp, Inc.
EDU	New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc.
ENTG	Entegris, Inc.
ETSY	Etsy, Inc.
EXTR	Extreme Networks, Inc.
FII	Federated Investors, Inc.
GDOT	Green Dot Corporation
GNK	Genco Shipping & Trading Limited Warrants Expiring 12/31/2021
HD	Home Depot, Inc. (The)
HOFT	Hooker Furniture Corporation
HRC	Hill-Rom Holdings Inc
HRS	Harris Corporation
HTHT	China Lodging Group, Limited
IBP	Installed Building Products, Inc.
INGN	Inogen, Inc
IOSP	Innospec Inc.
IPGP	IPG Photonics Corporation
IRBT	iRobot Corporation
ISRG	Intuitive Surgical, Inc.
IT	Gartner, Inc.
JOBS	51job, Inc.
KLAC	KLA-Tencor Corporation
KLIC	Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc.
LOGI	Logitech International S.A.
LOGM	LogMein, Inc.
LRCX	Lam Research Corporation
LTRX	Lantronix, Inc.
LYV	Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.
MA	Mastercard Incorporated
MELI	MercadoLibre, Inc.
MOMO	Momo Inc.
MTZ	MasTec, Inc.
MU	Micron Technology, Inc.
MYRG	MYR Group, Inc.
NANO	Nanometrics Incorporated
NFLX	Netflix, Inc.
NSP	Insperity, Inc.
NTES	NetEase, Inc.
NTIP	Network-1 Technologies, Inc.
NUVA	NuVasive, Inc.
OLED	Universal Display Corporation
ORBK	Orbotech Ltd.
PAYC	Paycom Software, Inc.
PEGA	Pegasystems Inc.
PKG	Packaging Corporation of America
PLXS	Plexus Corp.
PM	Philip Morris International Inc
POOL	Pool Corporation
RTEC	Rudolph Technologies, Inc.
SANM	Sanmina Corporation
SGMS	Scientific Games Corp
SIGI	Selective Insurance Group, Inc.
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
TECD	Tech Data Corporation
TER	Teradyne, Inc.
TREE	LendingTree, Inc.
TRUE	TrueCar, Inc.
TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
ULTA	Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc.
URI	United Rentals, Inc.
UTX	United Technologies Corporation
V	Visa Inc.
VEEV	Veeva Systems Inc.
WIX	[Wix.com](http://Wix.com) Ltd.
WLDN	Willdan Group, Inc.

I seldom buy any investment without quite a bit of study so I see no reason to start now. That said,
I’d be surprised if buying each of these blindly didn’t make a formidable portfolio, at least for the
short term. (1 yr or less). I have 471 more companies that perform well on paper and need more
study. BTW, those on this list need more study too! As I said, I’ll try to write about them as I go.

I can also say after this digging and crunching that one of the larger “pretty” stocks that by the
numbers should way outperform is FB. If I had to choose one stock as my only investment for a year
or two, I’d probably bet it all on Facebook.** Beware, I’m talking’ my book.

My largest holdings with very concentrated ports, in order of size, are GLD, SHOP, PLCE, FB and
GOOG. The GLD I consider short term. The rest … well, less temporary. I still watch them closely. :slight_smile:

Good luck all,

Dan

  • but BRK isn’t going to double this year, while my little miner … um … might. :slight_smile:
    ** or SHOP. No, wait, GOOG, bet it all on GOOG! Or PLCE, they rock. :slight_smile:
28 Likes

Dan,
Very interesting. It sounds like you have stumbled onto Joel Greenblatt’s magic formula by a round about way.

Andy

1 Like

Dan:

I, too, am looking for rockets but using a different method which also uses price history as a starting point. I started using the method about two years ago and I’ve had to make adjustments based on what I learned. Yogi got it right, “in practice theory and practice are not the same.”

Lynch liked turnarounds. My experience with turnarounds has been rather dismal. They are much easier to spot after the fact than at the bottom. I keep on trying.

Of your fab-100 list there are four on my watch/wish list: MA, MELI, ULTA, V. There are quite a few well know names of yore. Will they bounce back?

Denny Schlesinger

1 Like

one of my pre-screens by taking every company in my database (8000+)
and list their monthly closing prices and sort them looking for mid- and long-term “super-gains”
different time periods.

Does your database contain all the stocks that went bankrupt?

I’d be surprised if buying each of these blindly didn’t make a formidable portfolio, at least for the
short term. (1 yr or less)

One idea, clear out your CAPS if you have one and add all 100 of those stocks to CAPS for one year and see what it looks like. Free, but interesting.

1 Like

One idea, clear out your CAPS if you have one and add all 100 of those stocks to CAPS for one year and see what it looks like. Free, but interesting.

Greetings, Puddin’,

Not a bad idea. I have so many fantasy ports on so many sites, I’m afraid of being blackballed in the investing arena but a couple more probably wouldn’t hurt.

My CAPS account is pristine. :slight_smile: Have you guys used CAPS stats at all? Are they even available? I can’t ever seem to find anything there, and always come away with unsorted lists of hundreds of companies in (I think) no particular order.

Dan

My experience with turnarounds has been rather dismal. They are
much easier to spot after the fact than at the bottom. I keep on trying.

Hey, Cap,

Me too. I’d like to think we could catch some of these. I’m putting on my
thinking cap. If you can think of a screen to capture them (real-time gains
week-to-week?) let me know and we’ll build a trap. Then again, some of
these are still running like crazy. Here’s a dozen to make you drool.
I promise the time frame is not cherry-picked, nor are these even close to the
highest gains. They look … catchable. :slight_smile:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?LLEX,GNK…

		
**Ticker	Company . . . . . .  . 	YOY Gain**
LLEX	Lilis Energy In . . . 	1907.14%
GNK	Genco Shipping  . . . 	1151.31%
TTPH	Tetraphase Phar . . . 	863.60%
AAMC	Altisource Asse . . . 	793.03%
RHNO	Rhino Resource  . . . 	747.62%
CBMX	CombiMatrix Cor . . . 	629.61%
SALT	Scorpio Bulkers . . . 	616.37%
ESPR	Esperion Therap . . . 	527.98%
SXE	Southcross Ener . . . 	506.31%
CGIX	Cancer Genetics . . . 	411.57%
IPDN	Professional Di . . . 	358.00%
INAP	Internap Corp . . . . 	348.85%
4 Likes

If you can think of a screen to capture them (real-time gains
week-to-week?) let me know and we’ll build a trap.

I just put some money on this one:

http://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats16/SRCL.html

I’ve been tracking it for some 8 months now waiting for a breakout from the bottom.

http://softwaretimes.com/pics/srcl-04-07-2017.gif

That’s my two screening tools. The stock was brought to my attention at the BMW Method board

http://discussion.fool.com/stericycle-32341381.aspx?sort=whole

And lastly, analysts have finally given up on the bearish ratings

Stericycle Started With ‘Overweight’ Rating at Barclays
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14086190/1/stericycle-starte…

Barclays Ups Stericycle To Buy, Sees 20%+ Upside
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2017/04/13/barcl…

Goldman Sachs Relents- Stericycle Upgraded to Neutral

After taking a close look at Stericycle’s numbers, analysts at investment Goldman Sachs have decided to remove their sell rating from the shares, and upgrade Stericycle stock to neutral.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/07/goldman-sachs-rele…

Sorry, none of that intelligence is artificial. What is different is that it took me almost nine months to pull the trigger which means that I might finally be learning to invest.

If you are looking for turnaround screens, here’s one using data from Mike Klein’s charts:

http://bmwmethod.com/screens/screens.php?side=buy

SRCL is fifth on the list this week.

Denny Schlesinger

6 Likes

Raptor:

Very interesting thread. I hope you don’t mind clarifying why stocks in your present portfolio do not appear in your list of 100 stocks.

“(My largest holdings with very concentrated ports, in order of size, are GLD, SHOP, PLCE, FB and GOOG. The GLD I consider short term. The rest … well, less temporary. I still watch them closely. :)”

Also, after listing a number of stocks according to their score (?) you switch to the alphabetical order with AMD, AMZN etc. I am curious to know why.

Like others closely following this board on growth stocks I am looking to find a few reasonably safe ones (as they have just got a new life) with a good prospect of growth (at least for a year or two). Thanks for opening a new line of search.

Regard.
alpha

A small correction. Your alphabetical list actually starts with ABR:

ABR Arbor Realty Trust
ACIA Acacia Communications, Inc.
ADBE Adobe Systems Incorporated
AEIS Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
AIZ Assurant, Inc.
ALGN Align Technology, Inc.
AMCX AMC Networks Inc.
AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.
ANET Arista Networks, Inc.