13-14 (edit: 0) taxis is the new “hyper-exponential”

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Currently we are in the hypo-exponential phase of Tesla’s taxi deployment with about 15 known license plates in Austin since the June rollout.

We were told the rollout would be “hyper-exponential.”

Next phases:
normal exponential
hyper-exponential
giga-exponential

Lead architect said:

But the service areas and the number of vehicles in operation will increase at a hyper-exponential rate.

Internet says:

13 cars (per YouTube posts) and 243 mi2. An even more ridiculous pizza delivery service and you gotta like it cold. Each time they expand and REFUSE to provide real guidance on cars or rides AND miles WITH RIDERS this becomes sillier. Expand to the Gobi Desert…it’s about 500,000 mi2. The service area since launch at 20 mi2 has always been grossly underserved with any semblance of a reasonable number of cars. During earnings just randomly quoted miles with no context from Elon. I would imagine he wanted to get out in front of Ashok who at least answered specifically and honestly with the 7000 miles in a month. Not particularly helpful or pertinent this time around. These plates are the only ones that anyone seems to have ACTUALLY ridden in. The rest is vapor unless there really are more cars and safety stoppers with a death grip on the armrest they have hired. Hopefully there are more but if not, this is silly to everyone except the yeah but crowd. Your pizza will be delivered in about 3 hours. We only have 13 drivers :slight_smile:
XCD-7351, 7358, 7360, 7363, 7364, 7367, 7368, 7369, 7370, 7371, 7372, 7373, 7374

There is a lot of exaggeration in the direct Musk riffs for sure. The simplest of YouTube searches reveals that only perhaps 14 cars have been posted as giving Robotaxi rides in Austin. (a) They promised a full unlimited service by the end of June (b) They actually launched with 11 cars with safety stoppers (c) After a lot of fanfare and claims including ‘50% expansion of cars’ it seems 13 cars remains about what they can manage with the HQ a 15 minute ride away. Maybe there are more there just doesn’t seem to be any evidence on reputable platforms. All of those cars and rides include the safety stopper with a death grip on the armrest or a safety driver. The only plates that seem to have ever been posted are the following:
XCD-7351, XCD-7358, XCD-7360, XCD-7363, XCD-7364, XCD-7367, XCD-7368, XCD-7369, XCD-7370, XCD-7371, XCD-7372, XCD-7373, XCD-7374, XFH-3264

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Reports 29 in Austin 59 in the SF Bay Area.

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Actually, the more accurate statement is:

Zero is the new hyper-exponential,

because the architect said autonomous ride-hailing will increase at a hyper-exponential rate and Tesla has exactly zero autonomous vehicles deployed.

The rollout of human-monitored taxis might very well be exponential.

Last month we were told 500 by year end, now that’s been walked back to 60.

Nov 25
The Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin should roughly double next month [from about 30 now].”

A 90% reduction from last month’s forecast:

Oct 31
“We’re scaling up the number of cars to… probably we’ll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more in the greater Austin area.”

As we get the approvals and prove out safety, we will be launching the autonomous ride-hailing across most of the country. I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That’s at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals. I think we will technically be able to do it. Assuming we have regulatory approvals, it’s probably addressing half the population of the US by the end of the year. We are being very cautious. We do not want to take any chances, so we are going to go cautiously. But the service areas and the number of vehicles in operation will increase at a hyper-exponential rate.

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This is the true laffer. Have they even sought regulatory approval in more than one or two places?

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I suppose this is true in a broad sense:
“If our product is not ready and causes a bunch of property and personal injury damage then we will be regulated by a bunch of lawsuits and government compliance actions.”