20 Years BRK.A 627%
20 Years BRK.A 627%
I believe we just made a complete circle.
Good morning Div, obviously your point is appropriate and well reasoned for a brk board but we know most partners don’t want the facts. After ten years it’s more than fair to ask, how have tandt done vs buffetts long term favorite spy? I would argue that Buffett has deliberately given tandt an , edge, the benefit of uncertainty with respect to which trades are actually buffetts. Therefore, even with the benefit of the, Buffett bounce, due to the lack of transparency and media mis reporting , their underperformance is even more material. Let’s see if Buffett honestly discloses whose trade tsm was, for example. Make room for me in the Brkville doghouse, asking brk partners to leave their, echo chamber, is often a traumatic event. Have a grand day all.
T&T are duds. They missed ALL the big stories and easy layups of the decade. These helpers took home tens of millions of $ / year for doing nothing.
TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, META, AAPL, AMZN
Is there any doubt in your mind, that if tandt out performed spy by one percent, Buffett would be including it on the first five pages of the annual? Selective disclosure, or cherry picking what you disclose is always wrong, always.
Upstart had a decent earnings report.
COO: We are happy to be signaling a return to sequential growth and cash profitability in the current market environment. Our improving guidance is clearly not deriving from obvious improvements to the macro economy just yet. It is flowing from a combination of tenacious execution, operating discipline, margin expansion, and deal making.
My UPST position is now positive as I averaged down aggressively in last few months. I also bought lots of leaps and sold puts are very attractive prices.
Stock is up 30%+ today. More importantly with $2B funding and projected cash profitability, the bankruptcy clouds have receded. Looking forward to this being a multi bagger by 2030.
Great! Cause that’s the ONLY way I’m ever going to get my initial investment back!!
UPST 2025 juicy puts. Seems like they have not adjusted for the news today.
I sold $10 puts for Jan 2025 and collected $4.25 per contract.
It appears that after the news (good or bad) of the company, the stock price reacts immediately However there is latency in option pricing to catch up to the news. I noticed this in UPST options and took sizeable advantage of it. It is one of those things where you wonder “Why is everyone not seeing this ?”
UPST demonstrating Dollar Cost Averaging strategy is effective.
Highest buy was at $256 several months ago. Lowest buy was $12 a few weeks ago. Cost average is ~$15. Stock is now around $28 or 2 bagger.
Since I am planning on holding the stock till 2030, I prefer the stock to be low as long as the business heals and then thrives. Expecting UPST to be a 10 bagger by then.
Congratulations! I used to dollar cost average back in the 2000’s but got burned by that strategy. Now I’ll just wait for the 10 bagger to happen and I think I’ll only then have a 40% loss
But I’m keeping this stock in my portfolio front and center to always remind me NEVER to listen to Saul and his merry cheerleaders.
Congrats…However, DCA needs clarification…
If one bought at $375 (me)…and thinks 10% drop is a great buy DCA, at $330…and then the ER, of course unfairly, makes it drop to $250 leading one to panic and DCA…and then market rerates it to $150…and we DCA…and then drops to $90…and one is disheartened…and then it jumps to 130, and one is overjoyed…and then again it drops to less than 90, and DCA again…and then 70…and you get it…
There lies the problem…I went fully head on at $375…DCA a couple of times in 330, and then 275 I think …AND once more at 90
Problem is my DCA at 90 was not even 2% of what I originally invested at $375…
I sold of vast majority of my UPST at 30s…Just could not bear to see it go down anymore…and then to my utter disbelief I see it go down to $12!!! Almost 65% down from where I sold…
But yes, I still hold 200 shares of UPST…For the same reason that '38packard does!!! I NEVER WANT TO FORGET WHAT AN IDIOT I WAS.
But to get back to your point - I totally agree that DCA in a good solid stock is absolutely fine…If I had not got myself totally obliterated through upstart and other outstandingly stupid TMF investments, I would have used the opportunity to DCA in some really good solid stocks, which even a fool like me could see will eventually rise…And boy, they did - they are the usual suspects
DCA implies that you dumb down the decision of when and at what price you are buying the stock. In theory if you had continued to do DCA, you would have acquired a lot more shares at $12 than at $375.
One could argue that selling at $30 was the right decision since the probability of UPST going bankrupt was > 0.
If one had exceptional bad timing and started DCA at the peak and bought the stock at 15th of each month, following would be the results
Nothing unique about BRK other than it has trailed S&P over 5, 10, 15 and 20 years.
found this post by dividends20 2020
3.4 years into that 10 year period brk beating spy by 6.9% or 2.4%/yr rate
SPy total return 34.5%, brk total return 41.4%
but it was a strange 10 year “forecast” as it had 11 months of hindsight during which SPY led by 10.7%
despite that unfair handicap BRK has pulled even then pulled ahead
if you use the post date as the start date brk has beat spy by 19% total or 11.5% annual rate
ten years not over but brk not dead yet it seems
Divi was right for a year or so:
I believe Berkshire is fairly valued to moderately undervalued.
SPY was considered “breathtakingly overvalued” years ago and only got more so. Sky-high margins haven’t corrected yet (if ever). Don’t know. I’m in both.
Let’s wait till 2030. 2022 was a tough year for S&P down 18%.
In coming years, there will be more NVDA’s, TSLA’s and GOOGs nudging S&P higher in as we usher in the age of abundance.
Divi was right for a year or so:
only if you count the 11 months prior to his post date nov 17 2020
it was a neck and neck for about 13 months then brk pulled ahead and has stayed there
just random noise till the 9.1 yr prediction is done but might as well do it right