2025 will be great -- NY Times says so in first story!

[WendyBG]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/31/business/stock-market-2025-predictions.html

Wall St. Sees More Gains Ahead After Another Bumper Year for Stocks

The S&P 500 is set to post back-to-back annual gains of more than 20 percent for the first time since the late 1990s. Analysts expect stocks to continue rising in 2025.
By Joe Rennison, The New York Times, Dec. 31, 2024

Investors are heading into 2025 in an optimistic mood, believing that with the economy on a firm footing and the White House in their corner, the stock market will continue to climb…

The S&P 500 index, which was down slightly on Tuesday, the final trading day of the year, is on track to rise more than 20 percent this year. It would be the first time the benchmark index has risen more than 20 percent in consecutive years since 1998.

Can the rally continue? Wall Street thinks so.

On average, analysts are forecasting that the S&P 500 will rise around 10 percent in 2025. …In 2024, roughly $500 billion flowed into funds that buy U.S. stocks. More than half of that came in the fourth quarter… [end quote]

Well, that’s as good as signed, sealed and delivered.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-on-pace-for-best-two-years-in-a-quarter-century-c5b5f9b3?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Stocks on Pace for Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century

Some investors caution against thinking that the rapid pace of gains can continue because interest rates may remain higher than anticipated

By Karen Langley, The Wall Street Journal, Updated Dec. 31, 2024

…
Still, there are reasons for concern. The Fed jolted markets in December when it reduced rates but signaled just two additional cuts next year, suggesting borrowing costs may settle at a higher level than investors expected… [end quote]

This is a classic bubble driven by FOMO, with everyone on the same side of the trade. Will it be great in 2025? Maybe…as long as speculators keep pumping new cash into the markets which is a giant auction.

Wendy

[steve203]

Did they ask realtors and mortgage salesmen if the outlook for real estate was bright too?

Stock market today: Stocks slide as Wall Street's year of 20% gains ends on a...

The “pause that refreshes”, or “no more gas”? Charts from bubblevision.

[DrBob2]

@steve203

The “pause that refreshes”, or “no more gas”?

The S&P is down 4% from its all-time high. Corrections of 5-10% are quite common (5% drops every 3-4 months on average).

DB2

[jerryab2]

If significant (20% or more) US tariffs on construction materials, furniture, appliances, and more–the housing market will essentially stall due to affordability issues across the entire housing sector.

It will put the new administration between a rock and a hard place.

On top of the above, if the choice is to deport a large portion of the construction labor force, no contractor will be able to put a crew together to build a house or an office building or whatever it is they want to build.

[steve203]

@jerryab2

If significant (20% or more) US tariffs on construction materials, furniture, appliances, and more–the housing market will essentially stall due to affordability issues across the entire housing sector.

@jerryab2

On top of the above, if the choice is to deport a large portion of the construction labor force, no contractor will be able to put a crew together to build a house or an office building or whatever it is they want to build.

Seems the reduction in available labor may, broadly speaking, offset reduction in the volume of housing units demanded. Then the “JCs” can concentrate the labor they do have, on the projects that are most profitable.

Steve

[Leap1]

@WendyBG

Wall St. Sees More Gains Ahead After Another Bumper Year for Stocks

Their reputation just took another hit.

[tjscott0]

The stock market is NOT the economy. It is largely about the professional class & wealthy buying stock. And corporate profits which are at 50 year high. So I agree that the stock market will continue to rise. But the state of the economy? That could be a different kettle of fish.
Credit card defaults have reached their highest point since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a decline in the financial well-being of lower-income consumers after years of high inflation.But lower income folks do not contribute much to a nation’s GDP or stock market. They do not have extra money to invest and spend on items other than food, housing, utilities & transportation.
Middle income are managing to make their credit card payments but the number of default has increased for that segment of the population and the amounts of credit cards has increased 40% since 2023.So the middle class may be tapped out for spending.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/credit-cards/how-much-the-average-middle-class-person-owes-in-credit-card-debt/ar-BB1lwEy8

[jerryab2]

@steve203

reduction in the volume of housing units demanded.

Prices then crash (“reduction…housing units demanded”) and it is 2008 all over again.

[rainphakir]

Happy New Year, y’all.

Bob Marley & The Wailers - Three Little Birds (Official Music Video)

Dance!

The ‘Trump dance’ takes the sports world by storm | CNN

LOLOL
ralph

[steve203]

@rainphakir

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/sport/trump-dance-sports-spt-intl/index.html

The “double jerk”? People realizing that survival depends on conformity. We all saw what happened when a player decided to “take a knee”.

Steve

[tjscott0]

@steve203

Did they ask realtors and mortgage salesmen if the outlook for real estate was bright too?

Home Prices Rise Again, Up 50 Percent Since 2020, Double the Increase of Rent

Percentage Increase Since January 2020

• Case-Shiller National Index: +50.9%
• Case-Shiller 10-City Index: +50.3%
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): +21.1%
• OER is the BLS measure Owners’ Equivalent Rent, the price one would pay to rent their own house in lieu of owning it. +27.5%
• Rent of Primary Residence: +25.6%

CPI Inflation Indexes Understated

The Fed and economists in general do not consider home prices as part of inflation. To the extent this is ridiculous (very), inflation as measured by the CPI is understated.

Everything is fine people. Move along. Nothing to see here.

[steve203]

@rainphakir

It’ll be all over Tik Tok.
Don’t fight it.

You noticed that TFG asked SCOTUS to delay the Tik Tok ban until he is in office?

Trump told the justices that a delay would allow his administration to “negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing national security concerns.”

Why Trump asked the Supreme Court to delay TikTok ban and what’s next

Steve…wonders what the going rate is

[Leap1]

@tjscott0

It is largely about the professional class & wealthy buying stock. And corporate profits which are at 50 year high. So I agree that the stock market will continue to rise.

That sense of entitlement is wrong. It won’t last.

There was a reasons the worker CEO ratio used to be better. That entitlement got crushed first before the 1950s began.

adding

The premiums will dry up.

The press will say the markets have crashed. They have not. But the markets won’t be back to premium values. That will shock the boomers.

Who needs to retire after all.

[eldemonio]

@UpNorthJoe

funniest description I’ve heard is that he is whacking off 2 giraffes, lol.

And the giraffes let him do it. He can do anything…grab them by their giraffe junk.

[Leap1]

The giraffs aren’t dressed. I walk right in.