The Nasdaq Composite Index rose to a fresh 15-year high, propelled by something that was noticeably absent in the dot-com bubble: earnings.
Index heavyweights such as Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. surprised Wall Street with bigger-than-expected profits in the fourth quarter, as a number of other sectors of the stock market struggled.
Robust earnings and upbeat profit forecasts for many technology companies this year have pushed the Nasdaq ahead, in percentage terms, of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which have been weighed down by concerns about global economic growth, falling profits at energy companies and banks still struggling to pay big legal bills that are a legacy of the financial crisis.
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Anirban
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Something that will bring down all stocks. But when?
If this all sounds pessimistic, I suggest you go to www.CrestmontResearch.com and look at historical returns on the equity and bond markets for the last 100 years. There were periods when US equity returns were negative for 20 years.
Further, it has been almost seven years since the last recession. Given that the longest we’ve gone without a recession is close to 10 years, it seems likely that we will see a recession within the next five years. The average stock market correction in a recession is in the 40% range, and recessions almost always mean that interest rates go even lower, which makes the challenge of achieving even 4% over the next seven years even more daunting.
http://d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net/uploads/pdf/150215_TFTF…
The recent highs in US and some EU indices argues that a Bear isn’t coming anytime in the next few months. Bull markets usually don’t end on a sharp spike, they tend to end with a gradual roll over.
" Bull market tops are a process, Bear market bottoms are an event"
I will be using calendar based timing to lighten up later this year, maybe buying some index LEAP puts. But for the moment it looks good.
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