Well, that’s pretty Manichean of you. Try to be a little more subtle in your thinking.
“Experts at Britain’s top climate research centre have launched a blistering attack on scientific colleagues and journalists who exaggerate the effects of global warming.” [Looking at you, Leap]
We agree that the acceleration is not statistically significant. This means the level of the signal has not risen enough above the noise. So, either a) there is a lot of noise (which is good to know about) or b) the signal is weak.
Either way, our grandchildren are not going to “face all of Florida under water” (to quote Leap’s hyperbole).
The world will need much more energy in the future, both in the developed world and the developing world which points toward an all-of-the-above approach. In addition, the world is warming – a slow process with both costs and benefits, not an apocalyptic one.
In broad terms I think we should now focus on a) adaptation and b) R&D focused on energy production, storage, transmission and the like. Think of the next two or three decades as a learning period for new technologies with (intelligent) trial and error.
We can discuss these thoughts if you wish, either in this thread or new ones.
Only in this paper. However, I try not to base my opinions on a single paper that happens to match my POV (what some call cherry-picking). I think one should try to get an impression from multiple studies.
He really just wants XOM to do well. Dismissing all else. Then fudging about with cherry picking. Now he is setting terms for how I can work within his perspectives civilly. Never mind reality. Everything that contradicts him is apocalyptic just because it suits XOM.
Florida going under water is more than likely. I do not need false studies to ease my mind and enjoy investing in XOM. Pakistan just was under water. Now she is looking at a default and a half dead economy. Easy to say not apocalyptic? Of course just utter those words and you have said it.
Using three ice-flow models, we furthermore model the transient evolution of Thwaites Glacier and find that a complete disintegration of the ice shelf will not substantially impact future mass loss over the next 50 years. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL102880
But as I read the article: if their ice-flow models are not accurate, then we get the Thwaites Glacier sliding into the ocean causing massive sea level rise.
Property values in Florida must be protected from rising sea levels much longer term. Always keep parts of the truth away from the conversation and property values wont get hurt.
In the middle of the Florida property values have gone mad lie after lie mad higher prices.
The authors reviewed other work. For example, they write “In a recent study Urruty et al. investigated the stability regime of all grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and concluded that they are currently dynamically stable” and “no numerical modeling work has shown that Thwaites Glacier is currently undergoing an irreversible retreat”.
“In summary, although no previous studies have explicitly quantified the buttressing strength of TWIS [Thwaites Ice Shelf] several previous numerical studies have suggested through various perturbation experiments that TWIS has limited capability to impact upstream grounded flow.”
Analysis of the geology below the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica shows there is less sedimentary rock than expected – a finding that could affect how the ice slides and melts in the coming decades.
“Sediments allow faster flow, like sliding on mud,” says Dr Tom Jordan, a geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), who led the study.
Yes, the dinosaurs. Dinosaur fossils tell us Antarctica was much warmer than today.
The study of past climates, paleoclimate, is a large research area in it’s own right. Before the invention of modern instruments, thermometers, wind gauges, etc, the data is proxy data. This includes things like ice cores, sediment cores, coral, and tree rings from around the world. Historical records of crop yields indicate weather patterns and can be reconstructed from tax records. Governments care a lot about collecting taxes and kept detailed records going back to the earliest civilizations.
All of these data sources have uncertainty, but together they create a picture of the past natural variability of the climate. If you, or any of the people who liked your post, want to read more, I’m happy to provide references, everything from brief web pages to detailed textbooks. You too can become an expert.
The scientists who are most expert in reconstructing past climate are convinced that today’s climate change is due to human released CO2.
The difference is that this is science. Science works despite human failings. You can read the papers, dig through the details, and decide for yourself. Let’s us know what you learn.