30 years of sea-level rise

Are you banking on not going to alternative energy? Or are you banking on going to alternative energy?

Well, that’s pretty Manichean of you. Try to be a little more subtle in your thinking.

“Experts at Britain’s top climate research centre have launched a blistering attack on scientific colleagues and journalists who exaggerate the effects of global warming.” [Looking at you, Leap]


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More like you are missing the point hoping XOM keeps climbing. Nothing more.

I do.

We agree that the acceleration is not statistically significant. This means the level of the signal has not risen enough above the noise. So, either a) there is a lot of noise (which is good to know about) or b) the signal is weak.

Either way, our grandchildren are not going to “face all of Florida under water” (to quote Leap’s hyperbole).


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The world will need much more energy in the future, both in the developed world and the developing world which points toward an all-of-the-above approach. In addition, the world is warming – a slow process with both costs and benefits, not an apocalyptic one.

In broad terms I think we should now focus on a) adaptation and b) R&D focused on energy production, storage, transmission and the like. Think of the next two or three decades as a learning period for new technologies with (intelligent) trial and error.

We can discuss these thoughts if you wish, either in this thread or new ones.


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Only in this paper. However, I try not to base my opinions on a single paper that happens to match my POV (what some call cherry-picking). I think one should try to get an impression from multiple studies.

Another paper using more satellite data than your Kleinherenbrink et al study reports a significant sea level acceleration about 6-fold higher than Kleinherenbrink et al. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027311772030034X?via%3Dihub

A Chinese study using satellite and ocean temp/salinity data for the period from 2005-2019 also reports significant sea level rise, particularly in the Atlantic. Remote Sensing | Free Full-Text | Basin-Scale Sea Level Budget from Satellite Altimetry, Satellite Gravimetry, and Argo Data over 2005 to 2019

A major study reports persistent global sea level acceleration since the 1960s extending at least through 2015. Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s | Nature Climate Change

And you think that justifies you going to the opposite extreme?


He really just wants XOM to do well. Dismissing all else. Then fudging about with cherry picking. Now he is setting terms for how I can work within his perspectives civilly. Never mind reality. Everything that contradicts him is apocalyptic just because it suits XOM.

Florida going under water is more than likely. I do not need false studies to ease my mind and enjoy investing in XOM. Pakistan just was under water. Now she is looking at a default and a half dead economy. Easy to say not apocalyptic? Of course just utter those words and you have said it.

I hate the corruption involved.

Climate has been changing since there was climate.

Saw this bumper sticker: “When in the history of the world as the climate not been changing”

True, but what matters right now is the rate of change and our inputs to the process.

Silly bumper sticker.


Out and out dumb…give me twenty

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A paper out this week projects a sea-level rise contribution from Thwaites of “at most a few millimeters over 50 years

Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica
G. H. Gudmundsson et al.


Using three ice-flow models, we furthermore model the transient evolution of Thwaites Glacier and find that a complete disintegration of the ice shelf will not substantially impact future mass loss over the next 50 years. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL102880

But as I read the article: if their ice-flow models are not accurate, then we get the Thwaites Glacier sliding into the ocean causing massive sea level rise.


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Why is Florida corrupt? What does that mean?

Property values in Florida must be protected from rising sea levels much longer term. Always keep parts of the truth away from the conversation and property values wont get hurt.

In the middle of the Florida property values have gone mad lie after lie mad higher prices.

It is not apocalyptic when someone else’s family dies in a flood. It is apocalyptic when your beach front home wont sell.

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The authors reviewed other work. For example, they write “In a recent study Urruty et al. investigated the stability regime of all grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and concluded that they are currently dynamically stable” and “no numerical modeling work has shown that Thwaites Glacier is currently undergoing an irreversible retreat”.

“In summary, although no previous studies have explicitly quantified the buttressing strength of TWIS [Thwaites Ice Shelf] several previous numerical studies have suggested through various perturbation experiments that TWIS has limited capability to impact upstream grounded flow.”



New York is sinking at a way faster rate due to its own weight.


Another paper last week on the Thwaites glacier:

Analysis of the geology below the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica shows there is less sedimentary rock than expected – a finding that could affect how the ice slides and melts in the coming decades.

Sediments allow faster flow, like sliding on mud,” says Dr Tom Jordan, a geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), who led the study.


Yes, the dinosaurs. Dinosaur fossils tell us Antarctica was much warmer than today.

The study of past climates, paleoclimate, is a large research area in it’s own right. Before the invention of modern instruments, thermometers, wind gauges, etc, the data is proxy data. This includes things like ice cores, sediment cores, coral, and tree rings from around the world. Historical records of crop yields indicate weather patterns and can be reconstructed from tax records. Governments care a lot about collecting taxes and kept detailed records going back to the earliest civilizations.

All of these data sources have uncertainty, but together they create a picture of the past natural variability of the climate. If you, or any of the people who liked your post, want to read more, I’m happy to provide references, everything from brief web pages to detailed textbooks. You too can become an expert.

The scientists who are most expert in reconstructing past climate are convinced that today’s climate change is due to human released CO2.


Back then, the foremost experts on climate were convinced that their climate changes were due to them not properly pleasing their gods. :joy:

The difference is that this is science. Science works despite human failings. You can read the papers, dig through the details, and decide for yourself. Let’s us know what you learn.