Boy. If you put a hurricane on top of that kind of hot water it’s going to be something to see.
intercst
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There must be something unusual going on in the ocean just off the coast there. No way is that a rationally reasonable water temp in the ocean. I could understand a nearby ocean floor vent heating an ocean current and then that water flowing to the coast where it gets the high temp measured before it gets cooled by dilution with other sea water.
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Fortunately, IIRC, El Niño conditions are not as favorable for hurricanes (more wind shear).
The water temps are always hot there this time of year. This global map shows the anomaly is a bit above +1°C.
DB2
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Saw today that there was a patch of shallow water around the Everglades that went to 98.1 degrees.
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To put this in context, the current high temp is well above the 90th percentile so it is a big deal and it does justify concern. The heat wave has also persisted for six months, which is very unusual and disturbing.
And it is not just the Florida Keys. The North Atlantic is seeing the highest temperatures ever recorded.
One other fact worth knowing is that ocean temperatures generally lag atmospheric CO2 levels by 25-50 years. Oceans will continue to gain heat from climate change for many decades to come even if we get to carbon neutral tomorrow. https://news.grida.no/climate-change-time-lags-in-the-ocean-what-it-means-for-coral-reefs-and-our-grandchildren
It is still early, but there is growing evidence that the impacts of climate change are happening faster than expected. What was projected to occur decades into the future appear to be happening now.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00585-7
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Buckle up, Florida coastal residents, and coastal landowners throughout the South.
Buckle up American homeowners throughout the country, Insurance companies are going to need to raise rates on everybody to balance the money they will be pouring into Florida.
Buckle up, American taxpayers from all regions, $Billions of your tax dollars will be spent on the FEMA rescues in Florida and the Gulf States.
The “anti-socialist” crowd is going to be crying for Federal Aid, would almost be satirically funny if it wasn’t so infuriating.
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One piece of good news is that the idea that warming will continue after we stop emitting CO2 seems not to be true. In the last few years, climate scientists have come to understand that once we get to net zero carbon emission the warming will stop. Net zero is different than keeping CO2 emissions constant. As long as we emit CO2, warming will continue, but if we stop emitting CO2, the warming will stop. Then, over decades to millennia, the Earth would cool back down. Climate scientist, Michael Mann, of hockey stick fame, has a nice article.
For many years, the scientific rule of thumb was that a sizable amount of temperature rise was indeed locked into the earth’s climate system. Scientists believed—and told policymakers and journalists, who told the public—that even if humanity hypothetically halted all heat trapping emissions overnight, carbon dioxide’s long lifetime in the atmosphere combined with the sluggish thermal properties of the oceans would nevertheless keep global surface temperatures rising for 30 to 40 more years.
But guided by subsequent research, scientists dramatically revised that lag time estimate down to as little as 3 to 5 years.
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In other words, it’s only CO2. Volcanos don’t matter, the Sun does not matter. CO2 is the GOD ALMIGHTY OF THE UNIVERSE.
You got to be a believer to believe it.
The Captain
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Of course volcanos matter. When Mt Tambora blew up in 1815, the volcanic ash caused several years of “nuclear winter”-like temperature drops.
intercst
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Just to clarify, while everything you posted is true, the oceans will still continue to warm for 25-50 years after we reach carbon neutrality.
For those who care but don’t know, this is because the heat capacity of water is higher than that of air. Take a chilled glass of water into the noon day sun (with the mad dogs and Englishmen). The water will warm to that of the air temperature, but it will take some time with the length dependent on the volume of water. That’s the lag time. When dealing with oceans, the lag time is about 25-50 years.
This means that if we reach carbon neutrality tomorrow, air temperatures will stabilize quickly at the new normal. But it will take several decades for ocean temperatures to equilibrate. There is a lot of ocean.
A bit childish don’t you think? Volcanos, the sun, clouds, dust storms, have been around for a long time. What is new is the industrial age where billions of human beings have been digging up massive amounts of carbon that had been stored in the ground and releasing it into the air. That’s only occurred in the past century or so.
How anyone can believe that such behavior would not have significant environmental impact is beyond me.
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Frankly, I am kind of worried at the rate at which climate change is happening. It is stealing headlines nowadays. I guess if we each do our part and stop driving around in our gasoline-thirsty SUVs, it would be a good start. I am Long TSLA.
They can’t but that’s what spinning spun, read his text! It’s all CO2!
The Captain
Spinning’'s text says it’s all and only CO2. Read his text.
The Captain
Yes, that one post didn’t mention the Sun or volcanoes or asteroids or, well, a lot of other things. But other posts of mine that you’ve replied to did talk about these other things. As I’ve tried to make clear, these other things can cause climate change, and have in the distant past. The science is clear that they have not caused the recent warming. For the past century, human released greenhouse gases are the main driver of warming. If we stop emitting greenhouse gasses we will stop human caused climate warming. Natural processes will continue.
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That’s religion and politics, not science. To believe that science can identify just ONE THING, in a very complex system as the sole driver is pure BS!
The Captain
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Depends. The human body is pretty complex. Nevertheless the evidence is pretty compelling that the recent pandemic was caused by just ONE THING, the Covid-19 virus.
The conclusion that warming observed coincident with the Industrial Revolution is caused by the increased green house gases produced by that revolution is based on equally compelling evidence. That is why the great majority of those who refuse to believe that human activity is changing the climate get virtually all their information from internet echo chambers. They don’t know the field and so are easily manipulated.
And it is laughable to me that so many can believe in an international conspiracy of environmentalists when most of the money and political power in the world belongs to those who own and sell fossil fuels.
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There are at least two things about the Earth’s climate that mainstream climate science is certain about. Probably less certain than quantum mechanics and evolution. Probably about as certain as cigarettes cause cancer. Certainly more certain than any of the diet and health theories people are tossing around on that other thread.
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The Earth has warmed since the industrial revolution when we ramped up our fossil fuel use. When Bob posts about the Little Ice Age being cold (the coldest period since the Earth warmed out of the last ice age whose depths were 20kyr ago) the context is the Earth has warmed. When The Captain talks about how the Sun and volcanoes cause climate change, the context is the Earth has warmed.
The thermometer was invented 400 years ago. Every year since, better tools are invented, more data is collected. Today we have the latest in high tech gadgets. Lidars and radars and satellites and flood gauges and tide gauges and autonomous vehicles in air and sea measure as they go. Ship’s logs have centuries of observations. Cores of ice and sediment are layered and fossils and isotopes and dust and bubbles document climate in the deep past. Each data source has well documented uncertainties and biases. Scientists become science-famous when they find and correct errors. The scientific method is working.
The data is convincing, the Earth has warmed.
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The majority of the warming is caused by people. Not natural variability. Not the Sun, not volcanoes, not cosmic rays, not anything else anyone has proposed. The detective work is ongoing but the evidence is conclusive. Recent warming, like soylent green, is people.
The detailed records of past climates are laboratories to uncover the mechanisms of climate change. How much and in what ways did the climate change when the Sun changed this way in this year? How much and in what way did the climate change from these specific volcanic eruptions? How much and in what way did the climate change when CO2 changed naturally in this specific geological period. What are the mechanisms for this specific natural CO2 change?
Scientists test theories by making predictions and comparing with observations. Paleo climate scientists test theories of past climate change by making predictions about the past. Predicting the past sounds silly but we do it all the time. I predict that if go I look in the kitchen, I can test my theory that my spouse put their keys on the counter when they got home. Similarly, theories about the causes of specific climate change events are tested by going out and looking, building instruments, and collecting data designed to definitively test specific causes.
In the end, paleo data provides a window into deep-time climate that has uncovered how natural variability works. Not everything, it’s science after all, not religion. But enough to put error bars on the climate change from observed changes in the Sun, from observed changes in volcanoes, from observed changes in cosmic rays, from served changes in asteroid impact, and from observed human-caused changes in CO2.
The recent warming is very far outside the error bars of all observed causes except emission of human greenhouse gasses and aerosol pollution. This is the only cause that even remotely agrees with the data, within the error bars, maybe a little outside depending on which studies you like. All natural causes of the recent warming can be ruled out. The only explanation that is consistent with reality is recent warming is caused by people.
Climate scientists also make projections about the future. Decades ago, long before climate change was observed, long before warming rose above the natural variability of Sun and orbit and volcanos, climate scientists made projections. Bob posts interesting science about the imperfections of these projections. Those posts provide insight into uncertainty and bias in climate projections and quantifies errors. He posts links to peer-reviewed, published, well-funded scientist who disagree with other scientists about just how well past projections match observations. No one is being censored, the scientific method is working. I haven’t seen him post anything about the complete and utter failure of every climate denier projection, decades and decades of them, who say the Earth will stop warming, any minute now, just you wait.
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Now come the silence of Exxon scientists. The fossil fuel industry hires the best geophysicists in the world and gives them the resources to do world-class science. They understand all the details of climate science and easily see the mistakes, biases, and stupidities. What are they saying? Not a peep. They don’t say climate change is BS or religion. They don’t say here’s what’s wrong with climate science
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I only see four options. Take your pick:
- Humans have probably warmed the Earth from burning fossil fuels.
- There’s a massive conspiracy to hide the truth.
- Every single scientist on the planet is a blithering idiot, except a small handful of well-worn deniers.
- There’s climate change in my pants
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voters
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Couldn’t we put a chain link fence around all of it and only let people in during the winter time?
Andy
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Captain, do you think that CO2 has nothing to do with it? I know you think CO2 is completely benign but do you think that we can have unlimited CO2?
Andy
As electrical vehicles get cheaper, as electricity by solar and wind get cheaper. Everyone will move to electricity. I think what the deniers are against is the disruption in their lifestyle by moving away from fossil fuels. You can not expect people to go without heat or air conditioning. But if you make the source of energy cheaper or free, all of the deniers will move along with everyone else. What is helpful is the government supplying subsidies to move people to other sources of energy. Take the subsidies from the sources you do not want funded add more subsidies to the sources you want funded, just like is happening now.
Andy