Rising sea level and U.S. coast line

An area of U.S. coastline the size of NJ will be submerged by ocean by 2100. The Atlantic and Gulf coasts will be most affected because the land is sinking at the same time as the sea level is rising. The areas which have a gradual slope onto flat land could lose hundreds of feet.

In many areas, land ownership will transfer from individuals to the public domain when it’s submerged. The land owners will simply lose their property rights.

The losses will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

https://www.pbs.org/video/rising-waters-1663190013/

Anyone who owns coastal property in a threatened zone would be well advised to sell before the problem becomes obvious.

https://sealevel.climatecentral.org/research/reports/
https://sealevel.climatecentral.org/

https://go.climatecentral.org/portfolio/?utm_source=exit_int…

The Macroeconomic impact of this will be immense. Entire cities and parts of states will have to be abandoned.

Wendy

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An area of U.S. coastline the size of NJ will be submerged by ocean by 2100.

Is that time enough to find a home higher up the hill?

The Captain

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An area of U.S. coastline the size of NJ will be submerged by ocean by 2100.

Wendy, you have enough of a STEM background to know that should read ‘may be submerged’. Sea levels are rising. At the same time, researchers in 2016 used 30 years of satellite images and were surprised.

www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37187100
Coastal areas were also analysed, and to the scientists surprise, coastlines had gained more land - 33,700 sq km (13,000 sq miles) - than they had been lost to water (20,100 sq km or 7,800 sq miles). “We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world,” said Dr Baart.

The macroeconomic impact of this will be immense.

The numbers are large and are also spread over many decades. As Albaby has pointed out a number of times, cities are being rebuilt all of the time and over eight decades the building stock changes dramatically as do population patterns. When the waves roll over downtown Miami it won’t be over gleaming high rises. Picture instead what happened to cities such as Buffalo, New York. People moved and new construction happened elsewhere.

DB2

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It should be pointed out that the majority of any land additions was due to man made constructions.
"The researchers said Dubai’s coast had been significantly extended, with the creation of new islands to house luxury resorts.

“China has also reconstructed their whole coast from the Yellow Sea all the way down to Hong Kong,” sid Dr Baart."

The other gains were essentially neutral with shifting Amazon river flows both taking and leaving land. As for the coastal cities here and around the world. I think with a 50 year time line we probably have time to build sea walls and levees. The Netherlands reclaimed land from the oceans. Hopefully we can protect the losses BEFORE they happen.

Lastly, we need to be very proactive about ANY influence mankind has in the matter.
JMHO NCTim

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…the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world," said Dr Baart.

I think with a 50 year time line we probably have time to build sea walls and levees. The Netherlands reclaimed land from the oceans. Hopefully we can protect the losses BEFORE they happen.

Humans are adaptable and projections that ignore people’s actions can be wide of the mark. For example, the sea level at the Battery in New York City has risen by a foot and a half since record keeping started not long before the Civil War, and it is much larger than it was then despite continually rising sea levels. Natural processes also work in different directions as we saw with the Pacific atolls that are growing.

Last year Mao et al. had a paper that looked at coastline changes over 35 years:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924271621002…
"In this study we mapped and validated shoreline changes over Australia and the further extended the approach to the globe. The global coastal zones focused here cover latitudes between 50°S and 60°N around the world.

"In this research we used Landsat 4,7 and 8 surface reflectance images with 30-meter resolution and 16-day revisit time from 1984 to 2019 for analysis.

“In general we found that accretion is the dominant trend over erosion across the world, suggested by the percentage of accretion/erosion along each latitude and longitude as well as the statistics for each continent. The globally averaged shoreline change rate is about 0.26 m/yr, which is slightly larger than zero and suggests the global coastline is prograding.”

DB2

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Wendy, you have enough of a STEM background to know that should read ‘may be submerged’. Sea levels are rising. At the same time, researchers in 2016 used 30 years of satellite images and were surprised.

DB2

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Your reference to 1985 to 2015 data is old. New information shows that land is sinking and sea levels are rising faster than the your old data. This does not happen uniformly around the world. The Gulf coast and Atlantic coast are more susceptible because of long low lying seashores with minimal elevation increase for miles inland. Florida is a good example.

Jaak

Your reference to 1985 to 2015 data is old.

Old is a relative term, grasshopper. The main point is the direction of the trend. Over a third of a century sea levels rose while the amount of land increased rather than decreased.

New information shows that land is sinking and sea levels are rising faster than the your old data.

Old is a relative term, but if you noticed, the Mao paper referenced in this thread which looked at coastline changes over 35 years, went through 2019.

DB2

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DB2,

Higher up this thread it is pointed out how your information is misleading. Are you doing that on purpose?

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Higher up this thread it is pointed out how your information is misleading. Are you doing that on purpose?

It is not misleading. The facts are real; the research is published. Sea levels are rising; Pacific atolls are growing; the amount of land in increasing; the global shoreline is prograding not receding.

How you integrate that into your worldview and other mental maps is up to you. It is not necessarily easy.

DB2

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Basically:

  • we have a complicated geology
  • on top of it is a complicated hydrosphere
  • on top of that is a complicated atmosphere
  • living in those is a complicated biosphere
  • even the solar system is more complicated than we like to imagine
  • and they interact with each other - changes in any of them tend to produce changes in at least some of the others.

So when someone says “all else being equal” or anything like that… all else probably WON’T be equal.

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It is easy.

A few volcanos in the pacific, China building islands, the UAE building Palms.

Meanwhile the water is only really beginning to rise. The Gulf States will see an increase in their sinking. Bangladesh will go under water among other place.

Not sure why you can not see your post as misleading. Is it necessary?

warrl, add to your list

*Earth’s magnetic field is slowly moving and shields us from the Solar Winds.

… complicated …

Yeah, it’s all rather complicated. Which is why when people say “by 2100” you should read “likely by 2050”.

-IGU-

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We can see now that coastal storms are having more severe damage than they used to. Some of this is because we’ve built more close to the coastlines but it’s also clear that flooding events on the coasts have been becoming more severe.

Really, how many of the posters here will be around to care in 2100? Myself, I will turn 86 in 2150 if I last that long. Still I think that we have a responsibility to coming generations to pass on a habitable planet.

There are still those who dispute the effect of human actions on the environment. It’s true that the geologic record has dramatic climate changes like the ice ages before humans had any power to influence climate. Regardless of the cause the trend is clear and we owe it to ourselves and our children to be prepared.

Macroman77

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Macroman77:

Myself, I will turn 86 in 2150

You are without a doubt the youngest person posting here.

*Earth’s magnetic field is slowly moving and shields us from the Solar Winds.

The magnetic north pole circles around the geographic north pole. Nautical charts are drawn based on the geographic north pole while the magnetic compass points to the magnetic north pole. Nautical charts indicate how large an adjustment the navigator has to make depending on the age of the chart he/she/it is using. It’s also different depending on the longitude.

There is a very interesting SciFi novel about a Solar Wind sailing race but I don’t recall the title.

The Captain

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There is a very interesting SciFi novel about a Solar Wind sailing race but I don’t recall the title.

There was also a short story, Sunjammer, by Clarke that I read as a kid, which was much fun. You may like that one, too :blush:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunjammer

Pete

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Sunjammer, by Clarke

Was the one I was thinking about!

Thanks.

The Captain

…we have a responsibility to coming generations to pass on a habitable planet.

I grew up in a system of morality wherein that concept of responsibility and connection is primary. Not until I was 40 did I realize that the culture was accelerating its descent into a culture wherein consuming Twinkies, experiencing “cheap” high or depressed thrills, and extending ones own lifespan as loooonnnngggg as possible despite pain and boredom were PARAMOUNT!

Ohhh, and playing status bucket list games of going and looking but not being or seeing.

Yech.

The universe on this our planet in this very moment is displaying glories we never know nor see, and that we are destroying in a mad rush.

david fb

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Yep. My bad.