It use to be that “this time is different” was a derogatory term used by shorts waiving their finger at ha idiots for investing in “over valued” non-profitable “trash”. Now the term is used in the opposite manner as after all these years we “idiots” were proved correct every time. So now this time is different.
Inflation is a new issue. We have not seen inflation like this since the late 70s and stocks sucked then. No doubt about it.
At the same time macroeconomic concerns, Fed moves, although creating and contributing to volatility, the worse I can recall being the Chinese trade war during the summer of 2019, in the end, never mattered much, at all.
Our system seems to work. One extreme gets checked by the other. A war with Taiwan and yeah, this time things might be different. But absent that, absent a break down of our society, inflation, althiugh real and although I agree is not transitory, is unlikely to be any different than anything else.
In a free market, players will adjust and do what they always do, and that is make money. The best at making such money are dominant, category killing, hyper-growth, founder lead companies. That is not going to change inflation or no inflation.
Hey, maybe this time gold will outperform, or financials, or industrials…. Except for a quarter or two of sector rotations, I rather doubt that however. Seems more an opportunity to put dollar cost averaging to work. History is so much on our side that the phrase “this time is different” is now used in the opposite connotation of how it use to be used. And even then, absent a 1929, absent investing in gold rush or railroad booms, history was on our side back then as well.
This is the Fool boards. The Fool goes back to the 1990s. Going on 30 years of history. Throughout all the history and ups and downs “this time is different” in any connotation, has never really been true.
But maybe…I’m not buying gold nor financials nor industrials and though I own some crypto I’m no longer finding better risk/reward with crypto.
Look at MELI, SE, SNOWE, NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, Apple if you want to be more conservative with category dominators. Or, as most of us, there are earlier phase category dominators that are not going anywhere. It could be stupid, but I’ve taken to S. Not a recommendation just discussion of you want. Also to NVDA. Thinking hard on UPST again, and so many others we discuss here.
On my forum a great study was linked to regarding Lynch who was one of the finest money managers in history. But OMG! The study found that despite the incredible nearly unprecedented long term returns of Lynch, his customers ended up losing money on average!
Why? They sold in panics and bought back in when things were good. Well, are things different now? Or is it simply the same trap that cost Lynch’s customers to lose money while invested with one of the finest investors in history?
Food for thought anyways.