Here's fairly simple and great results screen.
First the results- to see if you want to go any further:
- Portfolio has about 3x the return of the S&P500 over 12 years.($176K vs $53K)
- All years of portfolio have double digit returns
- All but one year portfolio beat the S&P500
- Eight of the twelve years portfolio beat the S&P500 by double digits.
- No "bear catcher timing" used.
Portfolio S&P 500 Comparison
Annual Annual
Return $10K start Return $10K start Strategy minus S&P 500 B&H
2010 26.49% $12,649 14.91% $11,491 11.58%
2011 21.38% $15,353 1.97% $11,717 19.41%
2012 16.16% $17,834 15.82% $13,572 0.34%
2013 30.47% $23,267 32.18% $17,938 -1.71%
2014 32.74% $30,885 13.51% $20,361 19.23%
2015 24.96% $38,593 1.25% $20,616 23.71%
2016 12.80% $43,531 11.82% $23,052 0.98%
2017 38.67% $60,366 21.67% $28,047 17.00%
2018 16.13% $70,101 -4.52% $26,778 20.65%
2019 45.64% $102,093 31.33% $35,166 14.31%
2020 31.62% $134,375 18.25% $41,583 13.37%
2021 30.65% **$175,568** 28.53% **$53,448** 2.12%
I took a list of funds/ETFs from MorningStar that looked at the top dividend stock funds.
[https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1029347/top-dividend-st...](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1029347/top-dividend-stock-funds)
Mentioned: BlackRock Equity Dividend Instl (MADVX)
ClearBridge Dividend Strategy I (SOPYX)
T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX)
Vanguard Dividend Growth Inv (VDIGX)
Columbia Dividend Income A (LBSAX)
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ (SCHD)
FlexShares Quality Dividend ETF (QDF)
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Adm (VDADX)
Legg Mason Low Volatility High Div ETF (LVHD)
Fidelity® High Dividend ETF (FDVV)
I looked at the top 10 weighted stocks from each the above
and found the following 9 that were listed most frequently:
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Broadcom Limited (AVGO)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
J P Morgan Chase & Co (JPM)
Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
Visa Inc. (V)
I took those 9 and ran them thru [portfoliovisualizer.com](http://portfoliovisualizer.com) and it turns out that
picking the 3 stocks that had the best returns over the last 3 months
had the excellent results listed in the output shown above.
(Note: just like 3 stocks over 3 months,
alternatively, using 3 over 6, 6 over 3, 6 over 6 also did well)
Note: while results are from the site mentioned,
no friction other expenses are included in the results.
[https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&t=AAPL,AVGO,JNJ,J...](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&t=AAPL,AVGO,JNJ,JPM,KO,MSFT,PG,UNH,V,KO&o=-perf26w)
[https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&t=AAPL,AVGO,JNJ,J...](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&t=AAPL,AVGO,JNJ,JPM,KO,MSFT,PG,UNH,V,KO&o=-dividendyield)
6 Likes
Tpoto,
Is this a monthly screen?
Thanks,
Vez
Vez,
Yes, the data I showed in my post was end of month transactions.
There are other frequency options that PV offers- weekly, bimonthly, and quarterly.
tpoto
2 Likes
If you select the 9 stocks now, isn’t there hindsight bias for the backtest?
3 Likes
Not sure how AAPL and MSFT would show up in “Dividend” funds? Both are less than 1% Only way I can see them surfacing into the top 10 would be by market cap weighting the fund.
Russ
1 Like
Russ asks: Not sure how AAPL and MSFT would show up in “Dividend” funds?
Note that from the list that I used from MorningStar,
the objectives of some of the funds/ETFs
in addition to dividends were growth and appreciation. But most
had dividend yields >2.5%
Remove AAPL and MSFT from the list and rerun the rest in portfoliovisualizer
and you’ll still see excellent results.
2 Likes
Really cool idea tpoto… thanks…
2 Likes
If you select the 9 stocks now, isn’t there hindsight bias for the backtest?
Definitely.
DB2
1 Like