A dividend screen

Here's fairly simple and great results screen.

First the results- to see if you want to go any further:

- Portfolio has about 3x the return of the S&P500 over 12 years.($176K vs $53K)
- All years of portfolio have double digit returns
- All but one year portfolio beat the S&P500
- Eight of the twelve years portfolio beat the S&P500 by double digits.
- No "bear catcher timing" used.

        Portfolio                       S&P 500                         Comparison
        Annual                          Annual
	Return	$10K start		Return	$10K start		Strategy minus S&P 500 B&H	
2010	26.49%	$12,649 		14.91%	$11,491 		11.58%	
2011	21.38%	$15,353 		 1.97%	$11,717 		19.41%	
2012	16.16%	$17,834 		15.82%	$13,572 		 0.34%	
2013	30.47%	$23,267 		32.18%	$17,938 		-1.71%	
2014	32.74%	$30,885 		13.51%	$20,361 		19.23%	
2015	24.96%	$38,593 		 1.25%	$20,616 		23.71%	
2016	12.80%	$43,531 		11.82%	$23,052 		 0.98%	
2017	38.67%	$60,366 		21.67%	$28,047 		17.00%	
2018	16.13%	$70,101 		-4.52%	$26,778 		20.65%	
2019	45.64%	$102,093 		31.33%	$35,166 		14.31%	
2020	31.62%	$134,375 		18.25%	$41,583 		13.37%	
2021	30.65%	**$175,568** 		28.53%	**$53,448** 		 2.12%	

I took a list of funds/ETFs from MorningStar that looked at the top dividend stock funds.


Mentioned: BlackRock Equity Dividend Instl (MADVX)  
ClearBridge Dividend Strategy I (SOPYX) 
T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX)  
Vanguard Dividend Growth Inv (VDIGX) 
Columbia Dividend Income A (LBSAX)  
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ (SCHD)  
FlexShares Quality Dividend ETF (QDF)  
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Adm (VDADX)  
Legg Mason Low Volatility High Div ETF (LVHD)  
Fidelity® High Dividend ETF (FDVV)

I looked at the top 10 weighted stocks from each the above 
and found the following 9 that were listed most frequently:

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Broadcom Limited (AVGO)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
J P Morgan Chase & Co (JPM)
Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
Visa Inc. (V)

I took those 9 and ran them thru [portfoliovisualizer.com](http://portfoliovisualizer.com) and it turns out that 
picking the 3 stocks that had the best returns over the last 3 months 
had the excellent results listed in the output shown above. 
(Note: just like 3 stocks over 3 months, 
alternatively, using 3 over 6, 6 over 3, 6 over 6 also did well)

Note: while results are from the site mentioned, 
no friction other expenses are included in the results.



Is this a monthly screen?



Yes, the data I showed in my post was end of month transactions.

There are other frequency options that PV offers- weekly, bimonthly, and quarterly.



If you select the 9 stocks now, isn’t there hindsight bias for the backtest?


Not sure how AAPL and MSFT would show up in “Dividend” funds? Both are less than 1% Only way I can see them surfacing into the top 10 would be by market cap weighting the fund.

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Russ asks: Not sure how AAPL and MSFT would show up in “Dividend” funds?

Note that from the list that I used from MorningStar,
the objectives of some of the funds/ETFs
in addition to dividends were growth and appreciation. But most
had dividend yields >2.5%

Remove AAPL and MSFT from the list and rerun the rest in portfoliovisualizer
and you’ll still see excellent results.


Really cool idea tpoto… thanks…


If you select the 9 stocks now, isn’t there hindsight bias for the backtest?



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