It’s a long, long interview interrupted by some annoying sponsor plugs. But shrewd, shrewd analysis of what’s really going that might help you avoid some trading/investing grief.
I find this interesting. It was announced on Mar 27th that First Citizens Bank was chosen to take over the failed SVB. A week before the announcement, it turned green and started gradually going up until the announcement when it shot up. Do you think someone knew and it “showed up in the tape”?
Simon saw a Buy signal on March 20th. Then there had to be insider information going on in order for the stock to rise that fast on 3/27/2023.
Now Lisa, your chart is showing a head fake with the green bars after the Arc (smiley face). When you see that the Arc did not move as they normally do, there is some wrong and you should change the type of chart to see what is really happening.
Simon then gave a Sell signal on 4/6/23. First Citizens is slowly starting to sink back down to the $ 775.00 range. Get out if you own the stock.
All the HOLDLers will be left holding the bag.
I don’t own it. I just pulled the chart up to see what happened with the bank that took over SVB. I wish I had gotten in and out on those signals. Would have nearly doubled my money. I see what you mean about the arc not moving.
A more likely explanation is ‘informed speculation’ rather than ‘insider trading’, which is illegal and can be prosecuted. Jim Rickards discusses the diff in one of his books. (I don’t remember which.) But what he would suggest probably happened was this. It’s no secret that SVB was in trouble due to how it had structured its portfolio, and that the bank was being run by incompetents, more concerned with promoting leftist agendas than managing interest-rate risk. Compounding this was insiders obtaining reg exemptions for SVB that they shouldn’t have been granted. .
So, what probably happened was this. Some savvy analyst or hedgie figured out SVB was in trouble and that the Fed wouldn’t let them fail. Therefore, there’d be a takeover. So the guessing game became Who? would do the takeover. Shares of First Citizen were bought, contrary to its ongoing sell down. The algos --who do 90% of current trades-- picked up on the buys and coat tailed it, which triggered more buying.
OK, that is interesting. Good to have an idea of things that happen behind the scenes. Thanks!
Are the credit unions affected in the same way as the small banks?
From what I’m reading, the credit unions are more responsibly run than the small banks.
I hope so! I don’t want to see all the small guys die out.