This is a good primer on the Yemen situation. At least for those like me, who know little.
We’re already seeing supply chain effects, and it looks like the US is getting suckered into doing stupid retaliatory stuff.
-IGU-
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Turns out Bernie was wrong to get the Saudis to stop putting the Houthis down. The issue once again is the Muslim Brotherhood. The ultra religious.
One NPR reporter has the Houthis advertising go to Israel to fight. Young guys who were not joining up with the Houthis are doing so in droves. None of them are going to Israel. They are going to fight else in Yemen.
The pot shots on ships are away to act as if the Houthis are bigger than they are for the moral of their fighters. Meanwhile the village ejits are cannon fodder for a city somewhere in Yemen.
As far as Engelsberg Ideas I will scan that now but it just looks like a blog.
Yeah the history and the Red sea right now.
I think Saudi Arabia may force the US behind closed doors to let the dogs of war out. The UAE may want to fight the Houthis as well. The Houthis are too religious. The schism that keeps paying.
Bernie tried.
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If someone doesn’t do “stupid retaliatory stuff” then the Houthis keep on doing stupid aggressive stuff.
DB
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Speaking of deterrence…
Hopefully there are some Reapers prepositioned in Djibouti.
DB2
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It does not mean a boots-on-the-ground war for 2 years. It means don’t tread on me. That can prevent what is going on now. The longer we wait the more force we need to use.
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We already have “boots on the ground”, in Syria, and Iraq, staked out like bait. The Iraqi government already asked us to leave. If we left then, everything would have been fine. Now, it would look like we were driven out by the boogymen, so we can’t leave without looking like cowards.
The Iraqis are still asking the US to leave. But no. The US seems intent on digging in.
Boots on the ground is a poor figurative way of saying we are not going into a full-on war with Iran. They can not reach us well. We do not have to end up on some front in the desert with them facing us.
We need to bloody them. It is time.
You do realize they are taking it as best they can to us.
I approve of stupid retaliatory stuff
The Captain
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When Reagan sent jet fighters to attack Kadaffi in Libya, they missed him, but did he get the message?
How is air defense in Yemen? Modern? Easy to over come?
The west didn’t leave him alone tho. The west wanted something other than revenge.
Steve
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There is zero air defense in Yemen.
Iran is “a backer” but that does not mean all that much.
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There is the possibility that Iran supplied Yemen with rockets with the range to hit Djibouti (100-200 miles).
DB2
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The US has been looking for an excuse to hit Iran, for having the bad form to tip over a brutally repressive USian client. Just a matter of when the stars align to combine a willing US government, with an excuse.
Steve
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Do you notice we do not usually look for excuses? Most nations do not hi jack ships etc…or arm countries for ill-gotten reasons.
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What makes it extra special stupid is that it won’t work and just gets more people more mad at us. Plus it entangles us further with religious zealots, which never leads anywhere good.
Not something deserving of any sort of approval.
-IGU-
That’s an assumed outcome on your part. Maybe their capability to disrupt international shipping will be degraded. Maybe the Houthis will decide, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, to make “arrangements to reduce the number of martyrs”.
DB2
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Re: it won’t work
What is the alternative? Do nothing? Patience? Diplomacy? Wait for someone else to take care of it? (Maybe Israel? Saudi Arabia?)
Or let the world burn a while longer? More Oct 7 attacks are ok?
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They are already shooting at us. Over time if they can they will shoot more. Turning the other cheek will encourage them to become better shots.
Someone angry over their own bigotry against the West and Israel has serious problems. I am not talking about mental illness. I mean their own government and people are out to kill them as well.
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As I said, I don’t know much about it. Try an expert.
But I can say that my take in general is that we (meaning the U.S.) don’t have to do something about every problem in the world. In this case there is even a trivial way to throw a bit of money at the problem and just reroute everything around Africa until things cool down. The Red Sea route is not a necessity, it is an optimization (when it is working).
We might consider doing something about things where we can actually make a difference. Those would be the things that are largely our fault so that we can fix them just by being less wrong. Climate change comes to mind.
-IGU-
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Yes, our role as world peace keeper is a problem for us. But who else is there?
There’s an old cartoon of a Brit out on the street saying let the Americans take care of it. Of course the Brits did it for so long and so well. Now we have the resources. Others don’t. But Trump’s efforts to get Nato contributions raised (to 2% of GDP?) is a step in the right direction. And Ukraine reminds Europeans they need to fund their defenses.
Can they do more in world peace efforts? Through Nato? Through UN? Or how?
UN seems not to do so well in maintaining peace. Can they do better?
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