Purchased a bit more this morning at $270.80
tecmo
…
Nice fill!
Lots of silence. Surprising…it looks like a back up the truck moment.
Maybe everybody is on the phone to their brokers.
Jim
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Back up the truck moment?
Is that your call?
Too afraid now!
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Stats pls on forward returns and % of times this cheap?
Thank u
Back up the truck moment?
Is that your call?
This would be a good time to realize some of your capital losses to reduce your tax bill, and use whatever is left of that money to buy BRK?
This is kinda funny: I took a look at my IV spreadsheet using last quarter’s numbers, cut the equities portfolio in half and left everything else as it was.
IV~$270
(That’s using peak earnings, which I expect will drop somewhat but will get back there eventually.)
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Forgot explanation. Starts pp 75. SA. Bloomstran BRKB IV
My problem when everything is dropping is trying to keep track of relative attractiveness while taking risk/reward into consideration. Aercap, Bread Financial, Kontour Brands (around 8x earnings), Capitol One, all have their unattractive features, but they all look pretty cheap. Loyalty Ventures, spun off from ADS, looks to have been left for dead, but reports of its demise might yet be premature.
There are plenty of higher quality businesses to nibble on as well. Berkshire, of course. I’ll take as much as I can get at 1.2x book. I find I own quite a bit of Alphabet now and I’m back into Markel. Also Carmax and LKQ.
I’ll be very interested to see how a higher-interest environment affects Brookfield’s asset management business. I have to assume they’re looking at Brazil right now. I’d be surprised if they don’t have a wish list, and they’re not above taking advantage of a motivated seller.
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Lots of silence. Surprising…it looks like a back up the truck moment.
Some of us have realized our trucks are fully-loaded Nissan compacts, when we really need a Chevy 1-ton dually with an empty horse trailer.
Rob
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We will see how much remains of this macho optimism on Berkshire’s stock price after some time. I’m going to guess it too will wane at some point.
Rallies between now and then? Yes, probably several.
As Jim says, in the end it is not important that you bought cheap and things got chaper. But the confident optimism? It almost always goes away before the reset is complete.
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As Jim says, in the end it is not important that you bought cheap and things got chaper.
At some point it matters just how much less you could have paid for it. I’ve been reading about you guys buying bargain shares at $40/share higher than it is now. Perhaps that’s not a big deal if you are buying a few shares, but buy enough shares and that’s real money.
Still waiting. If I miss this entry point and catch it going up, I will still be better off than buying it at $310, and if I miss it altogether, there are other options.
IP,
patient
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Filled at $269.50, or 1.17 BV. I have a sinking feeling that we could see the price drop below BV before the end of the summer.
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We will see how much remains of this macho optimism on Berkshire’s stock price after some time… It almost always goes away before the reset is complete.
Otherwise the last stage wouldn’t be called “Capitulation”.
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Some of us have realized our trucks are fully-loaded Nissan compacts, when we really need a Chevy 1-ton dually with an empty horse trailer.
Tell me about it.
I’m a little frustrated because most of my “ready to deploy” cash is at a bank that has already gone home for the day. Silly Europeans.
I have another account for on line trading, but it’s low on cash by comparison…I briefly considered a broker margin loan today.
(lasting only till the wire transfer between accounts went through)
Jim
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<Still waiting. If I miss this entry point and catch it going up, I will still be better off than buying it at $310, and if I miss it altogether, there are other options.>
To me, it’s easier said than done. To guard against a regret of missing the boat completely, I nibbled a little bit a few days ago at $278.5. Now I’m trying my luck by waiting.
I’m a little frustrated because most of my “ready to deploy” cash is at a bank that has already gone home for the day.
You really think one or two days more or less do matter that much? Sounds like trying to find the perfect bottom before a short term bounce (or before the major bottom).
Maybe you are willing to tell us more about your thinking?
We will see how much remains of this macho optimism on Berkshire’s stock price after some time.
Chompin, man of/with experience. Sounds like you are one who voted in my poll “FAR from over”. What do you expect?
Trading off small buys of GOOG and BRK.B.
I’ve been in BRK for a very long time and it’s just too darn appealing at these price levels, but I’m still very slowly dipping in here.
As an aside, the exercise on “spare cash” has been very useful in my own thinking. I believe 2 years is a really solid number for those of us approaching or perhaps in retirement ages. The thought exercise on the long-term negative impact of more than 2 years over a 20+ year period of investing was compelling.
Better with Berkshire and risk some terrible sale down the road than risk significant relative cash underperformance.
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Some of us have realized our trucks are fully-loaded Nissan compacts, when we really need a Chevy 1-ton dually with an empty horse trailer.
Tell me about it.
Jim (and anyone else)
What percentage of your holdings is in BRK?
Presently my two largest holdings are BRK & GOOG. They are each about 18%for me.
I have some cash and am toying with increasing both up to 20%.
Beans
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