This research scraped actual prices from three major retailers and used AI to determine the country of origin. They chart the impact of tariffs and also of goods that aren’t subject to tariffs from October 2024 to May 2025.
The results show that in early March, domestically produced goods in affected categories
and their imported counterparts experienced similar price increases. However, in April these
trajectories started to diverge: import prices continue to rise steadily—driven by tariff pass-
through and lingering supply-chain frictions—while the prices of domestic goods in the same
affected categories are now following a more stable path.
Interestingly, domestic goods in unaffected categories exhibit a gradual price increase over
time, possibly reflecting uncertainty about the sectors and inputs that might be affected by the
tariffs. In particular, firms in unaffected categories may not react immediately to the tariffs but
instead gradually increase prices in anticipation of future tariffs or supply-chain disruptions.
Another possibility is that retailers raise prices more broadly to preserve margins amid rising
uncertainty or to maintain relative pricing structures across categories of goods. [end quote]
So far the price changes have been small.
Wendy