A really good two days.

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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  1. DON’T GO FOR THE “QUICK KILL.” THE ODDS ARE AGAINST YOU. EVERYTHING YOU LEARN ABOUT A COMPANY IS ALREADY WELL KNOWN TO HIGH-POWERED INVESTMENT HOUSES, MOST OF WHOM HAVE ALREADY PLACED THEIR BETS BEFORE YOU EVEN WOKE IN THE MORNING. DON’T TRY TO BEAT THE PROS. THEY EAT RETAIL INVESTORS LIKE YOU AND ME FOR BREAKFAST, LUNCH AND DINNER.

Yeah I know, you’re right. I may be naive, or just plain arrogant but I’m trying to navigate my motorboat in-between the battleships to ride on what they’re cashing in.

find a good company with a good product and a strong moat and stay with it (ok, ok, swing trade when you get the confidence - that’s what i do).

In my dream world, a swing trader with confidence would be my goal.

  1. BE PATIENT!!! DON’T DAY TRADE, DON’T ACT IN RESPONSE TO SHORT-TERM MARKET SWINGS. GET TO KNOW THE COMPANIES YOU OWN. UNDERSTAND WHEN THE STOCK PRICE HAS BEEN BEATEN DOWN UNFAIRLY. UNDERSTAND WHEN THE SHARES HAVE BECOME OVERVALUED (THE MARKET PENDULUM ALWAYS SWINGS TOO FAR IN EACH DIRECTION). YOU GOTTA UNDERSTAND THE COMPANIES YOU OWN. THE LONGER YOU HOLD THEM, THE BETTER YOU’LL UNDERSTAND THEM. BE PATIENT!!!

I understand, I’m trying to learn and improve. Impatience is challenging, clicking that ‘trade’ button for a better alternative…I haven’t beaten the thrill of that yet.

INVESTING MUSTN’T BE A PASSING FANCY. RATHER, IT MUST BE A PASSIONATE AND DEDICATED PURSUIT IF YOU ARE TO TRULY BENEFIT.

I watch the market compulsively, for better or worse.

Great post putnid; informational, but more importantly made me laugh several times.

Sweetadeline

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Great post putnid; informational, but more importantly made me laugh several times. - Sweetadeline

I gotta say, Sweetsdeline, you just pushed a whole lotta hot buttons: I understand, I’m trying to learn and improve. Impatience is challenging, clicking that ‘trade’ button for a better alternative…I haven’t beaten the thrill of that yet.

OK, yes, you already understand the thrill of the “hot button/trade”

Yeppers, that “button” is a bitch.

You got spirit and sass (admirable qualities in my book). What you need to add to your Tao is wisdom and (unfortunately for you): "Good judgment comes from experience, and often experience comes from bad judgment.

Yeah, I know. That sucks, but it’s true.

I like your spunk. I do. I wish to encourage you as best I can, but I’m not one to promise rose gardens. You gotta do the hard work yourself.

I’m kinda thinkin’ you got the right stuff. I’m kinda thinkin’ you’ll step up to the challenge.

There will be cheers (and tears) aplenty.

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Sweetadeline,

I want to be as optimistic as Putnid about your future, however I do think you (and many others. myself included at times)could benefit from learning to be more patient. One of my hardest lessons.

One line does concern me and I wonder if perhaps TMF is the right home for you:

In my dream world, a swing trader with confidence would be my goal. But perhaps I misunderstand that term.

Let the company and the market do the heavy lifting. Or if you really have that itchy trigger finger, allow your self to buy, buy, buy but really try hard not to sell, not for years.

I hope you’ll stick around and try to learn from the masters. Many on this board and a number of others at TMF have years of successful investing and are incredibly generous with their knowledge and time. I am not one of the masters. However after eight years with TMF I have picked up a few things but I am definitely still in the learning mode

I know this will date me but, “patience little grasshopper”

D.

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EXPERIENCE and PATIENCE are to successful investing as sensible diet and exercise are to our bodies. Both will pay incredible long term dividends.

A personal word on PATIENCE: I have several brokerage stock accounts that I’ve traded stocks in for several decades. I have noticed a curious thing about the relative returns of them. I have tended to ignore the pension accounts just because of the psychology that I have several more years before drawing on them. My personal accounts are the ones I have tended to actively (foolishly) trade in. Care to guess which accounts have done the best? That’s right, the rarely traded pension accounts BY FAR have melted upwards far in excess of my personal accounts which I’ve fooled around with much too much. No contest. Humbling to say the least. Patience is the fertile soil in which our investments can thrive.

A personal word on EXPERIENCE: To me, a lot of experience simply means I’ve made a lot of mistakes. I’ve got many scars on my back to prove the latter. Over trading has been my biggest mistake.

Moral of this little story of my investing life: Trading less has been far more profitable for me personally.

I wonder how much better off we’d all be if we simply bought just 10 great companies and went to sleep for 5-10 years before waking to see how our investments have fared.

Jim

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"10 great companies " These are easier determine in retrospect than real time. Every time I read a 10 or 20 year old book business citing successful companies it seems many of these companies were soon to experience a big failure. Either from the business point of view or the stock price, or both. That may be in part because the examples chosen are were mostly big companies. Big from past successes not future ones.

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ONE LINE DOES CONCERN ME AND I WONDER IF PERHAPS TMF IS THE RIGHT HOME FOR YOU

TMF, specifically this board has benefitted me enormously.

In no way should anyone follow what I do copy my strategies, I’m a new trader trying to make the most of what I have. In fact you should probably do the opposite of what I’m about to list.

I’ve watched winning companies like BOFI, SWKS, SWIR, WWWW etc. that drop $2-4 a market share when the market is down and spend my entire portfolio buying these companies up knowing that they will at least bounce back to their original price.

For example, if BOFI drops to anywhere in the $76-77.50 range I will buy with everything I have because it is an $80+ stock.

If SWKS drops in the $67-69 range I buy it all.

If SWIR drops below $39 I buy it all

If WWWW drops below $18 I buy it all

With some give or take, these are rough estimates.

If the stock never drops back down (like SWIR recently), I look for the best alternative on my list.

It doesn’t always work, like with CREE…if I had the patience sticking with CREE would be fine because it will jump back up in the $35-36 range within the next several months, that’s just too long to wait with the volume of shares I bought.

Thank you all for the comments, positive and negative…I welcome them all.

Sweetadeline

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For example, if BOFI drops to anywhere in the $76-77.50 range I will buy with everything I have because it is an $80+ stock.

If SWKS drops in the $67-69 range I buy it all.

If SWIR drops below $39 I buy it all

If WWWW drops below $18 I buy it all

Going all-in works until it doesn’t work. Gains reinforce risky behavior. The psychology of most people who go all-in is that if they lose some they then became more and more risky with the hope of recouping loses. It usually ends badly often with a complete loss.

Chris

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I’ve watched winning companies like BOFI, SWKS, SWIR, WWWW etc. that drop $2-4 a market share when the market is down and spend my entire portfolio buying these companies up knowing that they will at least bounce back to their original price.

Hi Adeline,

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. BOFI, to use one of your examples, was at $105 a year ago. It dropped to $101. You would have bought. It kept going straight down to $78 or so, where it still is, while all their reports and business has been stellar! Be careful. Look at the graphs of some stocks in Oct and Nov of 2008, when good stocks dropped 60% to 70% in value. Imagine if you had gone all in when they dropped the first 5%.

Best

Saul

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Business Plan ?
a. Money management skills
a1. 10 stocks per portfolio
b: stocks
c: etf’s
d: Perpetual Income coming in for the rest of your life
stocks must pay greater than $1.21 annually
e: swing trading not for the fences, but Derek Jetter style of only hitting singles and doubles.
f: profit targets, trailing stop loss orders.
g. Barchart dot com, stocks, etf’s as a reference guide.
h. learn how to read charts. charts are what our peers are telling us what they are doing with there hard earned money. We simply react to what they do.

support myself completely off trading works perfectly with the Perpetual Income coming in, how about getting three (3) checks every week for 52 weeks a year while your are studying hard to be professional Swing Trader. Or how about 24 checks every week for 52 weeks a year. Ya need a bigger bank roll to do this. Shown below is only 1 of 8 models that I have built. Some of the profits will be poured into 2 of 8.


Portfolio's **1 of 8** - Monthly Perpetual Income coming in that is  paid per week folder. Week 5 is paid and or a bonus.

Week 1: JLS  - JMT  - NBB

Week 2: HYG  - CMF  - CLY

Week 3: MAIN - VNR  - CRT

Week 4: CEFL - DVYL - DVHL

week 5: EDI  - SBR  - JMI

re: dividends.com
re: dividendinvestor.com

re: compounding compounding compounding. The secret to a wealthy healthy portfolio.

re: appetizers - O, MAIN, VNR, GOOD - monthly dividend checks as a starter kit.
DPO & DPD (1K shares brings in $266.00 per Quarter) quarterly dividend checks to be included.

Sweetadeline,

Peruse the following and the above appetizers at your leisure. For the Conservative folder, you can collect checks and you can trade them as well by using the Cheat Sheet Technique. Could be 5 for 5 or 10 for 10, no matter, still batting 1000 with a bunch of boring rules to play by.

Conservative Perpetual Income folder - Basically, set it and forget it!

YUM, AGO, GILD, CINF, HLF, CTSH, NUAN, IPGP, PRXL, ACOR, GEOS, NUS, NSP.

JNJ, MO, ABT,(watch for the Delta-9 drugs) PM, MCD, INTC, V, WFC, ORCL, AAPL, AIG, ABBV,(watch for the Delta-9 drugs) ORI, QCOM, IBM.

TEVA, MRVL, RIG, SIEGY, SFUN, NOAH, EDU.

Using fundies is NOT my forte, but being a techie is my style. Fundies give me a headache. We are here to MAKE MONEY as Mr. Wonderful from the Shark Tank would say.

while one gentlemen was yapping about CREE, I made a few coins buying on
10/27/14 @ 29.50 and sold on 11/28/14 @ 36.10 with 1000 shares for a 22.3729 percent profit. 12/17 @ 30.03 and still climbing. Dontcha just love it when a plan comes together. Money Management and compounding at each trade werks wonders. Again, while the gentlemen is yapping away, we steal his money.

Then another gentlemen was yapping UBNT and while it is going up hill and down dale, again made some more coins. 10/15 @ 31.00, out on 11/4 @ 36.00 for 16 percent. Then on 11/14 @ 29.00 and out on 12/22 @ 31.20 for 7.5862 percent.

So 2 for 2 or batting 1000, all done by my Cheat Sheet Technique with a few rules and using the Freestockcharts dot com’s charts.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CREE&p=D&yr=0&m… note the dates shown

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UBNT&p=D&yr=0&m…

This a traders market not a BUY’em and HOLD’em and hope. Buying and holding was good after WWII from 1953 to 1963. Not any more.

I am observing that many folks on this board are not practicing Money Management skills or don’t know how.

Well Sweetadeline, there are many ways to make money per your BUSINESS PLAN. You do have one don’t you.

Merry Christmas and stay Healthy Wealthy and Wize.

Best regards,

Quillnpenn - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a professional Swing Trader in “Buying from the Scared, Selling to the Greedy”.

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Thanks for the advice Quillnpenn, I learned and laughed a lot from your two posts.

For the Conservative folder, you can collect checks and you can trade them as well by using the Cheat Sheet Technique. Could be 5 for 5 or 10 for 10, no matter, still batting 1000 with a bunch of boring rules to play by.

I’m not conservative, I want to make my money in the short term rather than invest in like PG, JCJ, COKE for a 100% chance of making a great profit 10 years down the road…my 67 year old Dad lives off dividends from stocks like that given his volume of shares.

Using fundies is NOT my forte, but being a techie is my style. Fundies give me a headache. We are here to MAKE MONEY as Mr. Wonderful from the Shark Tank would say.

Not saying this is true for you, but speaking for myself…I am not a smart guy and don’t have the patience or intelligence to dissect the 10K reports and bull case multipage analyses that hype a company to really understand if the company is a worthwhile investment for the long term future.

I’m probably around the skill level of your 7th grade nieces when it comes to swing trading, I’m fortunate to be up a reasonable amount for my short 3 month trading adventure but it’s probably just beginners luck…actually I know it is.

Any advice you have to throw my way, I am all ears…the stock chart predefined scan for companies with MA 50 lines intersecting MA200 is a great tip.

Would you be willing to explain any of the parameters for the cheat sheet technique? Or at least enlighten me with a few of the rules you play by?

Well Sweetadeline, there are many ways to make money per your BUSINESS PLAN. You do have one don’t you.

Lol, my business plan (if you wanna call it that) is to buy stocks at a depression and sell at a peak…all relative, given what the market is doing at the particular time.

I’m trying to learn to weed out the propaganda from the investing site articles either hyping or trashing a company(seeking alpha etc), as most of it seems like gross manipulation but there always seems to be a bit of truth at the core of their arguments.

Thanks again for the words of wisdom, love your posts
Sweetadeline

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sweetadeline,

Let’s peruse the following at your leisure. For now, stay with the Cheat Sheet Technique since we are only DATING and or RENTING the stocks. Simon Sez, Tetter Totter later.

http://discussion.fool.com/grasshopper-lets-peruse-the-following…

Hoping your having fun. Enjoy the journey and take your time while in training. I am,

Quillnpenn - “In tribute to all who seek to record their ideas and share them with others”

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HUN&p=W&yr=0&mn…

Looks great to my eye Quillnpenn, once it crosses over to green buy it up?

On an unrelated note I bought up SWKS this morning after it dropped precipitously to $72…will plan to sell at $75ish.

Sweetadeline

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sweetadline aka Grasshopper,

By your chart, you are correct in waiting for the next green bar. However, it’s

Back to the drawing boards young lady.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HUN&p=D&yr=0&mn… Simon Sez gave permission to buy HUN on the moring of December 18th. and of course we wait and wait for Simon to say something. Be patient. This is the boring part of waiting around daily from 9:50am EST to 10:00am EST.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HUN&p=D&yr=0&mn… review the Cheat Sheet. and what did it say to do.

Freestockcharts dot com gave HUN a buy signal on the 17th of December.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SWKS&p=D&yr=0&m… Simon gave SWKS a sell signal. Could have a possible headfake.

Freestockcharts says to let it ride until the xover occurs. If the xover occurs, get out and wait for the next CCI signal to buy with all the profits and principle and compound them. The secret to being a successful investor/trader is to compound compound compound.

per your Business Model, your profit target for SWKS should be 77.93 to 82.39 and your Trailing stop should be 68.06.

Grasshopper, Rule #1 before ever buying a stock is to “KNOW YOUR EXIT BEFORE ENTERING A TRADE !!” You want to protect your ASSettes at all tymes.

the 77.93 is determined by doubling the ATR (average true range) and add it to today’s closing price.
the trailing stop loss is simply double the ATR and subtract it from today’s closing price.

the 82.39 is aggressive by multiplying 5 times the ATR plus the 20 MA (moving average)
the 68.06 is aggressive by taking the 20MA minus the ATR minus 0.05 cents.

class dismissed.

Enjoy the journey,

Quillnpenn -

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Quillnpenn,

I have enjoyed reading your posts. Do you have a board where you outline your philosophy a bit more? I don’t want to hijack Saul’s board for this, as I know it is not his favored style of trading. Maybe you should start one so that there could be a place for interested people to discern what you are using.

Anyway, I looked at some of your links. Is the Simon Says signal the CCI crossing over 100 to the upside or downside on the 2 Month chart? Is your Cheat Sheet to look at the same material on the 4 Month chart?

If so, it appears to me on the SWKS 4 month chart that you would have bought on OCT 16th roughly and then sold on December 1st roughly. Is the crossover that you are waiting for when the 13 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA?

I still can’t tell what the SAR dots are or how they fit into your analysis. Nor can I tell what the significance of the WM%R or the StochRSI charts have on your analysis.

Thanks for the info on Moving Averages.
Tdonb

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Tdonb,

Auditoring, Jafoing is what I like to do best as a guest on many boards. Sometimes it werks and sometimes not.

I generally hang out at the FAQ and the Beginners board in trying to help people see another point of view. I do get a lot of flak from the Mayor on one of the boards. I personally think he is paid by the Motley Fool in what he does. Lots and lots of guests are complaining of getting bum information or recommendations of what stocks to purchase without doing there own research.

I am a techie person but come here to pick up some pointers on how a Fundie person thinks and still the stock is going down town using incorrect money management skills. For the life of me, I am trying to understand why the Fundies like to lose money.

Simon Sez is a separate process for the folks who like to raid the ATM machine in making a few coins.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SWS&p=D&yr=0&mn… there was a sell signal this morning. However, if there is a head fake, so be it. we made some coins and all we have to is wait for the buy signal. I can guarantee it will show. It not, the stock died and when to stock heaven.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SWKS&p=D&yr=0&m… doesn’t matter which chart month to use.

The CCI crossed below the 100 yesterday suggesting you should be getting out. But since moving averages are still rising, we are to ride it out to the next cross over. Note that the journey started on or about the 17th of October. The CCI signal has a sell signal on or about the 31st. Again the two moving averages are saying to ride it out.

The SAR dots is for how the stock is trending. Most traders use this as a trailing stop loss. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/042202.asp…

Now the fun begins…http://discussion.fool.com/grasshopper-lets-peruse-the-following… will explain everything in detail and the best Free chart services to use. The Cheat Sheets are included.

http://discussion.fool.com/re-tetter-totter-principle-re-3030937… explains the Tetter Totter a little better.

The first site down will show the Simon Sez procedure. Needs lot of practice to get acclimated. Use the first top chart as a master.

Then the Tetter Totter Principle setups, then at the bottom is for Perpetual Income coming in for the rest of life for beginners. The best one is my portfolio 1 of 8 with 15 stocks that you will collect 3 checks every week (5 weeks) for as long as you want. How about 8 sets times 3 every week. 24 checks every week isn’t to shabby but expensive.

The Freestockcharts procedure was written for the folks on the Investing Beginning board. Follow the instructions and you will find that the chart will be your go to chart when some one recommmends a stock. Can assure you will be batting a 1000 per the CCI and the Stochastics RSI (14) rules with up to about 500 percent in cumulative profits on average per year. Stockchart dot com finds them per the scanning tools that were written. All is required is several sets of watchlists and let it rip with in seconds to review the chart on Freestockcharts.

Hope this can be some assistance

Happy NEW YEAR ! and enjoy the journey is staying Healthy Wealthy and Wize.

Quillnpenn - “In tribute to all who seek to record their ideas and share them with others” in “Buying from the Scared, Selling to the Greedy”.

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I have enjoyed reading your posts. Do you have a board where you outline your philosophy a bit more? I don’t want to hijack Saul’s board for this, as I know it is not his favored style of trading. Maybe you should start one so that there could be a place for interested people to discern what you are using.

I agree.

I am a techie person but come here to pick up some pointers on how a Fundie person thinks and still the stock is going down town using incorrect money management skills. For the life of me, I am trying to understand why the Fundies like to lose money.

This sounds like rather nasty sarcasm to me.

Quillnpenn, Obviously you do well with your methods and some people really like what you have to say and are very interested in it. However, this is a board for discussion among us Fundie’s who “use incorrect money management skills and like to lose money”. Perhaps you could have your discussions off board? If you would like to start a board of your own there is a link on the top of each of these pages that says “Start a new board”. It’s on the line that says:

Best Of - Favorites & Replies - Customize - Start a New Board

That way you won’t be “hijacking” a board meant for something else and will have a place appropriate for these discussions.

Saul

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