Just in case you needed one.
The fear/gread index is 51. Neutral (with one point bias to greed). Here are the factors:
Seven Fear & Greed Indicators
Stock Price Breadth, Extreme Greed
this indicator towards the upper end of its range for the last two years.
Last changed Jan 7 from a Greed rating
Junk Bond Demand: Extreme Greed
Investors in low quality junk bonds are accepting 1.72 percentage points in additional yield over safer investment grade corporate bonds. While this spread is historically high, it is sharply lower than recent prices and suggests that investors are pursuing higher risk strategies.
Volitility: Neutral
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 20.31. This is a neutral reading and indicates that market risks appear low.
Safe Haven Demand: Fear
Stocks and bonds have provided similar returns during the last 20 trading days. However, this has been among the weakest periods for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are fleeing risky stocks for the safety of bonds.
Put and Call Options: Fear
During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 51.08% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating fear on the part of investors.
Stock Price StrengthFear
The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs slightly exceeds the number hitting lows but is at the lower end of its range, indicating fear.
Market Momentum: Fear
The S&P 500 is 2.56% above its 125-day average. During the last two years, the S&P 500 has typically been further above this average than it is now, indicating that investors are committing capital to the market at a slower rate than they had been previously.
The scary thought: I’m getting crushed in a market that is neutral, not fearful. If the market goes to an index of 20, extreme fear, then what??? The the point that Bert seems to ignore: His idea of value is value of stock X to its Y growth cohort. Comparing apples to apples, which in this case might not be as good as an apples/oranges compare (i.e., high growth versus “regular”). We could state major and minor premises here which would include “E/V for growth stocks is generally correct”. But of course, Dreamer doesn’t buy that premise. I merely acknowledge those possibilities (is/isn’t).
In any case, whatever the situation/contest, our plan going forward needs to be based upon what our situation is, not on what it could have been or “needs” to be. Against that, I can stay the course on a beans and rice basis. It could be time to move DW’s IRA to 85%-15% total stock market-total bond market fund mix with annual rebalancing (pick an annual date). That’s my end-game plan anyway. Worth considering.
Now, UPST. When it went public, would you agree that it was an unknown stock, broadly speaking. The IPO “market” was certainly upbeat and IPO stocks were regularly “overpriced”. I should probably search for articles about its IPO to try to gauge the enthusiasm at the time. But UPST ended day 1 at $60.92 and dropped to 55.22 a few days later. I’m not going to recount the last year, just look at a chart. Forgetting about its sojourn over $300 and expecting a repeat any time soon, and considering the company’s successes, and admitting that there is “no reason” that the price could not return to $55 or $60, … doesn’t UPST look relatively safe here at $109? At least on a 6-month basis? Compared to what, of course. If I had a goal of +30% for 2022 (either from here or from 1/1), and if I had an n=1, singularity, of a portfolio, I think UPST would be on the short list of candidates for that role. I am almost 22% UPST and I have no better idea to replace it as of 4 hours before opening on Friday, January 14, 2022.
Comments more than welcome.
KC
