A Scary Thought

Just in case you needed one.

The fear/gread index is 51. Neutral (with one point bias to greed). Here are the factors:

Seven Fear & Greed Indicators

Stock Price Breadth, Extreme Greed

this indicator towards the upper end of its range for the last two years.
Last changed Jan 7 from a Greed rating

Junk Bond Demand: Extreme Greed
Investors in low quality junk bonds are accepting 1.72 percentage points in additional yield over safer investment grade corporate bonds. While this spread is historically high, it is sharply lower than recent prices and suggests that investors are pursuing higher risk strategies.
Volitility: Neutral
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 20.31. This is a neutral reading and indicates that market risks appear low.

Safe Haven Demand: Fear
Stocks and bonds have provided similar returns during the last 20 trading days. However, this has been among the weakest periods for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are fleeing risky stocks for the safety of bonds.

Put and Call Options: Fear
During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 51.08% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating fear on the part of investors.

Stock Price StrengthFear
The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs slightly exceeds the number hitting lows but is at the lower end of its range, indicating fear.

Market Momentum: Fear
The S&P 500 is 2.56% above its 125-day average. During the last two years, the S&P 500 has typically been further above this average than it is now, indicating that investors are committing capital to the market at a slower rate than they had been previously.

The scary thought: I’m getting crushed in a market that is neutral, not fearful. If the market goes to an index of 20, extreme fear, then what??? The the point that Bert seems to ignore: His idea of value is value of stock X to its Y growth cohort. Comparing apples to apples, which in this case might not be as good as an apples/oranges compare (i.e., high growth versus “regular”). We could state major and minor premises here which would include “E/V for growth stocks is generally correct”. But of course, Dreamer doesn’t buy that premise. I merely acknowledge those possibilities (is/isn’t).

In any case, whatever the situation/contest, our plan going forward needs to be based upon what our situation is, not on what it could have been or “needs” to be. Against that, I can stay the course on a beans and rice basis. It could be time to move DW’s IRA to 85%-15% total stock market-total bond market fund mix with annual rebalancing (pick an annual date). That’s my end-game plan anyway. Worth considering.

Now, UPST. When it went public, would you agree that it was an unknown stock, broadly speaking. The IPO “market” was certainly upbeat and IPO stocks were regularly “overpriced”. I should probably search for articles about its IPO to try to gauge the enthusiasm at the time. But UPST ended day 1 at $60.92 and dropped to 55.22 a few days later. I’m not going to recount the last year, just look at a chart. Forgetting about its sojourn over $300 and expecting a repeat any time soon, and considering the company’s successes, and admitting that there is “no reason” that the price could not return to $55 or $60, … doesn’t UPST look relatively safe here at $109? At least on a 6-month basis? Compared to what, of course. If I had a goal of +30% for 2022 (either from here or from 1/1), and if I had an n=1, singularity, of a portfolio, I think UPST would be on the short list of candidates for that role. I am almost 22% UPST and I have no better idea to replace it as of 4 hours before opening on Friday, January 14, 2022.

Comments more than welcome.



Forgetting about its sojourn over $300 and expecting a repeat any time soon

Intending, of course, to say NOT expecting a repeat any time soon.

I am intending to say that disregarding the price history, just looking at UPST, the company’s, business performance, $110 looks as good as any company’s stock that I follow.


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I am the one who following Saul almost 4 years. I burnt account 20% due to the greed and chased upstart, LSPD during last quarter results with oversized bets. I also tried to average after results with upstart because Saul did not close his position :slight_smile:

Next 30% for correction. So I am -50% off from high.

I might have done very well if control emotions and did not chase with greed.

I think basing last 5 years high growth forward revenue multiple data we are almost near to bottom of history repeats. I may be wrong but hoping and wishing it’s true.

First time I applied upstart loan and got approved with in 3 minutes. It’s funded next day itself.

It’s really had super fast approval process. I am impressed as a customer.

I also feel upstart is best bet for next quarter results because like me I think so many people might applied this quarter due to the stimulus cheques dry up, market correction in growth, crypto etc causing saving account money dry up.

I am also seeing so many headlines in the news similar lines like lot of loan applications recent days. I think some one posted those headlines also on Saul board.

I am long with 15% now. I hope we are right in next quarter :slight_smile:


Thanks for the comments and encouragement.

We followed the same path. As I have commented here previously, I chased greed, looking for an unlikely +50% for the year when I was up over 40%. I may never forget that the fear/greed index had risen to over 80, extreme greed but I had not looked at that number. The clear call would have been, at the minimum, to not add, and really it might have made me reduce by as much as I actually added. Woulda coulda shoulda been 75% plus cash.

But, we are where we are. I was just now looking at the Q3 earnings and starting to project earnings and/or free cash flow with certain revenue growth and scaling assumptions. No conclusion yet. Any rational investor would say that I have put the cart behind the horse. Should have that info already. Still, UPST is in the $106 range premarket and my previous good 'til order was at $106.01. Tempted to buy more on general principles.



Thanks for your thoughts, they are always very welcome.

Some months ago, when UPST continued to climb every day, I saw somewhere a list of the most shorted Nasdaq stocks. Well, believe it or not, UPST was on the eighth position.
But I thought that everybody owned the stock and had an oversized position, bla, bla bla…and it just couldn´t go wrong.

The fact that EVERY DAY Saul´s board was overloaded with posts about what a unique & wonderful company UPST is, was starting to stink a lot.
And then I remembered PVTL and PSTG some years ago; back then some board members used to write “poems” about their wonderful and unique technologies. Remember how it ended, don´t you?

Despite all these signals, I sold 50% of my UPST position only some weeks ago, a little bit late.
And yes, the ATH is far away.

Meanwhile, last year, I bought NVDA, AMD, FTNT and LAC which didn´t go down too much from the ATH since the begining of the correction.

Buying more UPST right now might be a good ideea.
But this is what many people thought on the way from 150$ to 400$ and not many of them sold before the earnings.