A work in progress - 1YPEG

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Ever since completing Saul’s faqs roughly 2 weeks ago I decided to make it my mission to discover the 1YPEG for all of my stocks.

I try to take on a batch every night and stop when I get to a 1YPEG < 1 declaring eureka! My victories are short as I’m far from being done.

After collecting info on a dozen or so stocks I decided I needed to save time with the computations and let the machine do the work for me. The result is a google spreadsheet with all of my positions, up to date pricing (ala a google finance function), the last 8 quarters worth of earnings (non-GAAP), and a bunch of computed columns that do their magic to get me to the 1YPEG.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H_v6WOjFi81rM3TH9ZHS…

The “magic” columns at the end give me the following: a tally of the TMTE for this year, a TMTE for last year, the YoY EPS growth, the TTM PE (using live pricing) and finally the 1YPEG. These are my lazy man columns. Basically anything with a blue background is computed while anything with a white background is the data I have to enter.

Since starting this project I’ve already done some pruning, some without having to figure out its 1YPEG first - I just kinda knew. I will likely go back and fill in values for my sold positions someday, but I’m really keen on finding out where my current low 1YPEGs lay first.

Feel free to use the spreadsheet for your own resarch and also feel free fill in your own rows directly into the spreadsheet if you’d like. If your stock is a Fool stock I’d likely want to know its 1YPEG someday too, so you may be saving me the trouble. I’m also not opposed to the idea of crowdsourcing this spreadsheet so we can all benefit from our collective research. I don’t know if Saul would approve since you wouldn’t necessarily be going out to the press releases yourself, but at least you’ll get to see a fairly close value and can do further research on your own. Plus if there are mistakes made the crowdsourcing rules to correct the bad data can also apply.

I’ll leave it at that for now. Comments appreciated and welcome.

Best,
–Kevin

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I updated a few. Hopefully correctly. :slight_smile:

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Hi Kevin, I looked at the spread sheet and looked up CRTO and don’t seem to see any relation to the figures they gave. Did you use Adjusted Earnings? In Euros or dollars? (dollars are smaller than euros so you have to increase the number of euro cents to get the number of dollar cents). Just wondering where you got your numbers.

Saul

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Saul,

Great catch. I used the values I found on the press releases and forgot to convert the amount to dollars.

I included a currency conversion function in that row to convert from Euros to Dollars.

For reference, the function is GOOGLEFINANCE(“EURUSD”). That value today comes to 1.12, so all of the values were multiplied by that amount. Note that when the currency rates change the 1YPEG will now change as well, in addition to changing due to price. I’m not sure if that is good or bad.

Thanks again for pointing out the error.

Best,
–Kevin

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Very similar to what I’m doing. I have a Google spreadsheet that has all my holdings being tracked, and off to the right side I have the quarterly EPS numbers and the resultant P/E and 1yPEG calculations so I can see them (being auto-calculated). I have a watchlist at the bottom with stuff I haven’t bought yet but am considering, and also slowly adding EPS/1yPEG data for those.

Your CASY data for EPS is different from mine, and I got mine right out of the press releases. I did not correct them in the spreadsheet. Are you sure you’re using non-GAAP numbers?

Page 73 of the FY14 report (http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/13797%20Casey%27s%…) as well as the quarterly press releases give this for the last 8 or 9 quarters:

FY2015
Q4 1.05 http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/4thQtrfy2015.pdf
Q3 1.01 http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/3rdQtrfy2015_0.pdf…
Q2 1.28 http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/2ndQtrfy2015.pdf
Q1 1.34 http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/1stQtrfy2015.pdf

FY2014
Q4 .59 http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/3rdQtrfy2014.pdf << (you have .54 listed)
Q3 0.38 http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/3rdQtrfy2014.pdf << (you have .33 listed)
Q2 1.06 http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/2ndQtrfy2014.pdf << (you have 1.01 listed)
Q1 1.43 http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/1stQtrfy2014.pdf

One thing to note on CASY is this restatement: http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/Press%20Release-Ex…. I’m not sure whether those recalculations are baked into the published quarterly press releases already or not. For comparison purposes, I left the Q numbers alone.

Using the above numbers and today’s price of $93.57 for CASY:

1yTTM PE: 93.57 / (1.05+1.01+1.28+1.34) == 19.99
1y Growth: (1.05+1.01+1.28+1.34) / (.59_.38+1.06+1.43) == 35.26%
1y PEG: 19.99 / 35.26 == 0.567

I entered data for you for ATVI, EBAY, NVDA. Feel free to double-check them.

ATVI data is here: http://investor.activision.com/results.cfm. 1yPEG right now is 0.828 on 21.93% YoY growth and 18.17 1yTTM PE/

EBAY data is here: http://investor.ebayinc.com/financial_releases.cfm

NVDA data is here: http://investor.nvidia.com/results.cfm (God bless them for making it super-easy to get historical press releases!). For NVDA, the quarterly data is as follows (most recent on the left), with 1yTTM, 1y Growth and 1yPEG to the right, respectively:


0.33	0.43	0.39	0.3	0.29	0.32	0.26	0.23		14.72	31.82%	0.463

I added a few others at the bottom of your list (CALM, REGN, PAY). Feel free to incorporate those as you see fit.

Disclosure: I am long on all of these – ATVI, EBAY, PAY, REGN, CALM, CASY, etc.)

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Scott,

First, a big thank you for filling in numbers on a score of missing positions.

And another big thank you for supplying corrections. Much appreciated!

I took a look at the values for CASY that you linked to, and I’m a little unsure of what to do.

If you take a look at the Q4 2015 PDF and scroll down to the consolidated income statement you’ll see the following:

 
              		     Three Months Ended April 30, 
                                2015            2014
Net income per common share
   Basic 			1.06            0.54
   Diluted                      1.05            **0.54**

If you check the other 3 quarterly reports for 2015 you’ll find the same thing - a different number than was posted originally.

I don’t know if the updated number can be viewed as a restatement, but I did use it to save time from opening up the year ago files. I applied this strategy for of all of the stocks I researched if/when the year ago number was made available for comparison.

Do you have thoughts on which number(s) are better?

Best,
–Kevin

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It is great to see work progressing on finding the best stocks. One thing that is not on the spreadsheet, that I think would be very valuable is revenue growth. Growing earning is great, but if it is disconnected from revenue growth it is suspect.

Many investor talk about GARP - growth at a reasonable price. I think Saul has made a case the diligent investors can find EGARPE- Extradorinary Growth at a Reasonable PE.

Flygal

you can see all my holdings at my profile
http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFFlygal/info.aspx

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Re: CASY –

If you can find CONSISTENT data for all of the quarters where they were supposed to restate, then I’d use that restated data since it’s more accurate. I didn’t have time to dig it up, but I suspect it won’t change the net result (growth/1yPEG) too much because the impacts should be similar across all of those quarters, percentage-wise.

Please do let me know (reply to thread and check the ‘email reply to the author’) if you get different numbers. I already own CASY so it won’t change my buy/don’t-buy decision, but for future tracking it would matter.

I’m gonna bookmark your sheet and will continue to play with it. If there was a way to really guarantee data coming in was accurate, crowd-sourcing something like this is very useful. Since this morning there have been about 25 people in and out of there looking, so it definitely has some value.

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Another thought on CASY: you could probably email their investor relations folks and make sure you have right EPS data for last 8-10 quarters, since their own posted data on the web is disparate. They have at least some accountability to provide the right data.

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Kate,

Thank you for the comments. I hear you on the revenue part of the equation. I had been looking up revenue along with earnings in my paper research, but decided to concentrate on the 1YPEG calls first - more to use as a starting place to see if the stock should be researched further.

But on that note, I will add a second tab to the spreadsheet to begin to track revenue information.

As a matter of the best way to do it, would you all be ok if I used trailing 12 month revenue? This way I can keep the spreadsheet tabs consistent.

Appreciate the comments from all.

Best,
Kevin

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Another thought on CASY: you could probably email their investor relations folks and make sure you have right EPS data for last 8-10 quarters, since their own posted data on the web is disparate. They have at least some accountability to provide the right data.

This is a fine idea, but after reflecting further on what I would say in the email I think we may have answered our own question. The later earnings reports come later and would naturally reflect the restated values for the year ago quarter; this after adjusting for the ethanol tax hiccup.

I am comfortable with this deduction as a reasonable assumption. If it is off it wouldn’t be by very much, as you say, and it won’t materially affect the 1YPEG or PE calcs.

Best,
–Kevin

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Kevin, thanks so much for doing this! This past week, for the first time in my life, I’ve been going through company financials and trying to figure out numbers on my own. Of course, one of the things among many I’ve been doing is calculating 1YPEG. This spreadsheet makes that so much easier. Thanks!

I added a few companies I’ve been working on last night. A few things:

A few surprises I’ve found with lower 1YPEGs are Home Depot and Corning (both under 1).

I believe whoever entered JPM’s numbers previously entered 2013 Q3 incorrectly. If you back out a litigation cost, it should be 1.42, not -0.17. This makes a huge impact on their numbers, taking them from a 1YPEG of under 1 to negative EPS growth.

I’m not sure if the numbers I entered for BWLD and SAM are GAAP or non-GAAP. When I was looking up the numbers I could only find one set without spending more time than I had.

Saul et al, I also wanted to thank all of you for the persistent encouragement and nudging to look up our own numbers on company website and figure things out for ourselves. It really does geteasier the more you do it!

  • Matt
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