So my data-crazy self decided to sit down and generate Saul's now-famous 1YPEG numbers for a bunch
of my holdings (and a few on my watchlist) across a few brokerage and IRA accounts. I'm not entirely
sure what to make of all of these since I already own chunks of most of them in one place or another
(some are for long-term dividend payouts and not expected to grow fast, while some are in my "play"
portfolio and ones I hope absolutely do kick it.
Ignore the quarter alignment of EPS data -- some companies aren't exactly calendar-year friendly, so
I just got the most recent 8 or 9 Qs of EPS data and am using the most recent 4 quarters for P/E and
last-4Q vs previous-4Q for growth%. **I will not guarantee these are all non-GAAP numbers**, as it
isn't clear exactly what the NASDAQ site ([http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/xpo/revenue-eps](http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/xpo/revenue-eps)) spits out.
I did not delve into every quarterly report, but for comparison they might be ok.
Some questions for discussion:
1) What do you do with negative 1YPEG like PEP or T (AT&T) -- they're presumably going to pay their
dividend regardless, so I don't expect either to grow super-fast. Just keep paying me to hold it!
But is a negative small number any better than a positive large number? (Yeah, I know P/E is kind of
a no-go for negative earnings periods, but for math and comparison purposes let's let that lie.)
2) Is there sanity in comparing across disparate industries? Say, compare REGN (Regeneron) in the
biopharma sector with a 1YPEG of -8 to CALM (Cal-Maine) in the egg production realm with a 1YPEG
of 0.137... or Oracle's 43 versus even Microsoft's -2.145?
3) Assuming you wanted only share price growth, would you dump ones like ORCL where the 1YPEG is
orders of magnitude away from "small number?"
Ticker FY15Q1 FY14Q4 FY14Q3 FY14Q2 FY14Q1 FY13Q4 FY13Q3 FY13Q2 FY13Q1 1y TTM PE 1y Growth 1y PEG
AMGN 1.68 1.61 2.01 1.4 1.33 1.79 1.64 1.88 25.25 0.90% 27.943
CALM 1.05 0.76 0.57 0.65 0.89 0.54 0.18 -0.08 13.45 98.04% 0.137
CELG 0.73 0.61 0.72 0.33 0.25 0.43 0.555 0.445 48.57 42.26% 1.149
GILD 2.17 1.66 2.19 1.33 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.43 14.31 306.08% 0.047
JWN 1.32 0.72 0.96 0.72 1.36 0.69 0.93 0.73 21.10 0.27% 78.279
ORCL 0.55 0.56 0.48 0.8 0.56 0.55 0.47 0.8 0.52 18.15 0.42% 43.208
PEP 0.87 1.32 1.29 0.79 1.12 1.23 1.28 0.69 22.42 -1.16% -19.370
REGN 0.97 0.7 0.82 0.58 0.86 1.26 0.79 0.9 156.38 -19.42% -8.051
XPO -0.87 -0.21 -0.22 -0.7 -0.27 -0.15 -0.99 -0.85 -21.92 -11.50% 1.905
Ticker FY15Q1 FY14Q4 FY14Q3 FY14Q2 FY14Q1 FY13Q4 FY13Q3 FY13Q2 FY13Q1 1y TTM PE 1y Growth 1y PEG
AAPL 3.06 1.42 1.2929 1.6671 2.07 1.19 1.0757 1.4414 1.9729 17.43 28.78% 0.605
BLK 4.77 5.36 4.72 4.4 4.85 4.21 4.19 3.62 19.32 14.11% 1.370
CSX 0.45 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.4 0.42 0.45 0.51 0.45 18.73 10.67% 1.754
DIS 1.27 0.86 1.29 1.08 1.03 0.77 1.01 0.83 0.77 24.22 23.63% 1.025
GE 0.51 0.34 0.35 0.3 0.32 0.31 0.3 0.34 17.90 18.11% 0.988
HD 1.05 1.15 1.51 1 0.74 0.95 1.24 0.83 0.68 24.20 25.27% 0.958
JPM 1.19 1.36 1.46 1.28 1.3 -0.14 1.6 1.59 11.87 21.61% 0.549
KR 1.03 0.73 0.7 0.98 0.81 0.57 0.6 0.92 0.88 20.62 18.62% 1.107
MSFT 0.71 0.54 0.55 0.68 0.78 0.62 0.59 0.71 17.48 -8.15% -2.145
PAY 0.12 0.28 -0.26 -0.21 -0.15 -2.28 -0.02 -0.54 0.11 -516.00 -97.66% 5.284
SPG 1.3 0.81 1.31 1.1 1.23 1 1.1 0.91 41.83 6.60% 6.334
SWKS 1.01 0.91 0.58 0.4 0.49 0.44 0.35 0.32 0.34 33.04 81.25% 0.407
T -0.76 0.57 0.68 0.7 1.3 0.71 0.71 0.67 28.76 -64.90% -0.443
Ticker FY15Q1 FY14Q4 FY14Q3 FY14Q2 FY14Q1 FY13Q4 FY13Q3 FY13Q2 FY13Q1 1y TTM PE 1y Growth 1y PEG
ATVI 0.49 0.03 0.27 0.4 0.22 0.05 0.28 0.4 19.96 25.26% 0.790
BWLD 1.06 1.15 1.25 1.49 1.1 0.94 0.88 0.87 36.09 30.61% 1.179
CCXI -0.28 -0.25 -0.28 -0.27 -0.23 -0.21 -0.23 -0.28 -7.31 13.68% -0.534
CRTO (need to hunt down these data!)
GILD 2.17 1.66 2.19 1.33 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.43 14.31 306.08% 0.047
GOOGL 6.91 4.09 4.98 5.04 4.95 4.38 4.77 4.97 26.52 10.23% 2.594
NCR 0.2 0.08 0.53 0.31 1.17 0.58 0.51 0.36 26.69 -57.25% -0.466
NVDA 0.35 0.31 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.2 0.16 0.13 0.28 19.84 151.35% 0.131
RPM -0.4 0.5 0.73 0.81 0.12 0.48 0.77 0.49 29.66 -11.83% -2.508
SKX 1.1 0.42 1.01 0.68 0.61 0.28 0.53 0.14 0.13 27.06 205.77% 0.132
UA 0.4 0.41 0.08 0.06 0.29 0.34 0.08 0.04 87.64 26.67% 3.287
WFM 0.46 0.35 0.41 0.38 0.42 0.32 0.38 0.38 0.39 30.16 106.67% 0.283
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