This article forecasts that automation and generative AI could eliminate some 32,000 “creatives” jobs, or almost 8% of the workforce, at agencies by 2030.
The reason I didn’t invest in Google a decade or two ago is because I believed that ad spending was more or less a fixed amount. Fixed in the sense of some percentage of consumer goods/services sales (plus a small percentage of business goods/services sales). So I figured ad spending can only go up by a few small percent a year, and that digital will capture some portion of that and then stop growing.
Obviously I was wrong based on these charts. Seems like digital ad spending is more or less additive to traditional ad spending, and is still growing rapidly. I don’t see how the consumer goods/services businesses can do it, but apparently they are doing it.
The consumer pays the advertising and possibly blames inflation.
Everything is paid for by the ultimate consumer, not the intermediary that makes or markets the product or service. When the ultimate consumer does not pay the provider goes bankrupt.
That wasn’t my point. My point is - if the public spends $15T in 2015 on stuff, and the companies that sell that stuff spend $500B of that total on advertising, then they spend 3.2% on advertising (overall). If they bump that ad spend to $1T in 2024, and spending went up to $19.5T, then they are now spending more than 5% for advertising.
I’m already dealing with Amazon acting like they’re convinced I’m a size 8 because last Christmas I bought something for DH’s granddaughter (I’m not sure she’s even a size 8 any more.)
And I’ll probably be seeing ads for weird housewares & home decorating stuff from now till Easter because the other day I looked at Wirecutter. But not normal stuff we actually need…
There was a time when advertising was just “advertising.” Now it’s “marketing”, and it encompasses everything from juicing the distribution channels to slotting allowances to (yes) digital and linear advertising, paying influencers, staging events, putting stickers on the floor of supermarkets and so much more.
Advertising is like war: it will keep costing more because the other guy is spending more to get more attention than you. Only a few companies get away with minimal advertising (Tesla is one, obviously.)
The stunning statistic for me is that Facebook alone has more ad revenue than ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox broadcasting combined . And Google has about twice as much as Facebook.
Advertisers have always known that targeting is a wonderful thing. Check out the ads on one of those channels that shows old western movies – lots of meds.
Plus I think we know Facebook ads can be precision targeted based on all the data they collect on users. Network television is far less selective. The best they can do is broad demographics of viewers on specific programs. Not nearly as fine tuned. Advertisers think Facebook ads are worth more.
Newspaper, radio, and TV advertising provide little feedback for the advertiser, they are like playing the lottery. Connect TV and the Internet provide feedback that can measure how effective ads are. This feedback is used by companies like The Trade Desk to auction off ad spaces. Maybe the auction system generates the higher revenue.
On a somewhat related tangent, FB is force-feeding me nothing but supportive Luigi memes (he was here on X date help me pick cotton - or some other nonsens). They clearly don’t know me well enough. I have perma blocked more sites and people in the last week than I usually do in multiple years. One would think that after blocking a dozen or more, FB’s AI/algorithm would get the hint.
If that is is a sign of the future of AI, real people are in no immediate danger.
I always wonder when I run into one of these threads since, between AdBlock Plus, uBlock Origin, and FB Purity, I haven’t seen an ad on FB in years and years … nor much of any place else, either.
I have read that only about 1/3 of marketing expenditures are for advertising. The rest are industry promotion (talking up a new product to store managers), slotting allowances, couponing, and other “invisible” things companies do to get 1) their products on the shelves and 2) into consumers’ hands.
It’s also true that it’s difficult to build a brand if you are sending 100 different messages to 100 different groups at the same time. That doesn’t mean it’s not effective for moving product (short term), just that broad-based advertising has a place too. Television, billboards, and to a much lesser extent magazines and radio - the traditional linchpins of advertising are still going (although radio is fading, from what I hear).
Someone once said “Half of all advertising is wasted”, and I have no doubt that’s true. But I must say that far more than half of online advertising is wasted, at least on me. I see so many paid ads that are entirely irrelevant to me - a far higher percentage than I see with linear advertising (although that’s high, too). And the number of digital ads that I don’t even see but are paid for (because they scrolled onto my feed for 2 seconds) is quite astounding. Of course sometimes I used to punch the button my radio when an ad came on, and now use TiVo skip to avoid TV ads too, so …
I agree the ads would be more effective if they were better targeted. But then people object to companies collecting too much info on individuals. The privacy conflict. That info can make your preferences more convenient. Or it can be misused.
AI might be efficient, but can it brainstorm over coffee or get inspiration from a weird dream? Creative talent brings the soul to advertising—AI just crunches the numbers. Let’s hope we’re not swapping clever taglines for robotic precision!
This thread really captures the tension between cost efficiency and creative depth. While AI can optimize delivery and scale campaigns faster than ever, it still lacks the human nuance that builds emotional connection. I’ve seen teams strike a balance by combining generative tools with oversight and analytics via Phonexa, ensuring performance without sacrificing originality.